当唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）准备宣布新的关税权利时，投资者正在质疑这些贸易保护主义措施对加密货币的影响。

与最初的恐惧相反，几位财务分析师认为，这些关税最终可以加强比特币作为替代性避风港的地位。

As Donald Trump prepares to announce new tariff rates, investors are evaluating the impact of these protectionist measures on cryptocurrencies.

当唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）准备宣布新的关税率时，投资者正在评估这些贸易保护主义措施对加密货币的影响。

After an initial decline due to broader market turbulence, several financial analysts believe that these tariffs could ultimately strengthen Bitcoin’s position as an alternative safe haven.

在由于更广泛的市场动荡而引起的最初下降之后，几位财务分析师认为，这些关税最终可以加强比特币作为替代性避风港的地位。

Trump’s Tariff Policy and Its Immediate Effects on the Markets

特朗普的关税政策及其对市场的直接影响

On April 2, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to announce the imposition of “reciprocal” tariffs targeting 15 countries, including China, Canada, and Mexico.

2025年4月2日，预计美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）将宣布针对15个国家（包括中国，加拿大和墨西哥）的“倒数”关税。

These protectionist measures initially caused a drop in Bitcoin prices, which had been steadily rising throughout the year. From over $100,000 at the beginning of 2025, the flagship cryptocurrency fell to around $80,000 in March.

这些贸易保护主义措施最初导致比特币价格下跌，全年一直在稳步上涨。从2025年初开始的100,000美元，旗舰加密货币在三月份下降到约80,000美元。

This decline is explained by the growing correlation between cryptocurrencies and traditional assets, all affected by global economic uncertainty.

这种下降是由加密货币与传统资产之间日益增长的相关性解释的，所有这些都受到全球经济不确定性的影响。

“It is the market’s appetite for risk that continues to deteriorate,” explains Marc Ostwald, Chief Economist at ADM Investor Services International.

“市场对风险的兴趣继续恶化，” ADM Investor Services International首席经济学家Marc Ostwald解释说。

For now, investors are favoring gold, which has risen by 18% since the beginning of the year, as a traditional safe haven.

目前，投资者偏爱黄金，自今年年初以来，它作为传统的避风港增长了18％。

However, as Zach Pandl, former macroeconomist at Goldman Sachs and current head of research at Grayscale, notes, “once this tariff announcement is made, crypto markets may potentially refocus on fundamentals, which are very positive.”

然而，正如高盛（Goldman Sachs）的前宏观经济师扎克·潘德（Zach Pandl）兼现任Grayscale研究负责人指出：“一旦提出了关税，加密货币市场可能会重新关注基本面，这是非常积极的。”

The Weak美元nde of the Dollar: An Opportunity for Bitcoin

美元的弱nde：比特币的机会

In the long term, tariffs could paradoxically enhance Bitcoin’s appeal by weakening the global dominance of the U.S. dollar. This fragmentation of the international financial system could thus create a favorable space for alternative currencies.

从长远来看，关税可以通过削弱美元的全球优势来矛盾地增强比特币的吸引力。因此，国际金融体系的这种分裂可以为替代货币创造一个有利的空间。

Omid Malekan, a professor at Columbia Business School, believes that Bitcoin could soon become “the new gold” in this context of economic uncertainty.

哥伦比亚商学院教授Omid Malekan认为，在经济不确定性的背景下，比特币可能很快成为“新黄金”。

The rising prices linked to tariffs and potential retaliation measures from the U.S. trade partners are already pushing investors to seek decentralized assets.

与美国贸易伙伴的关税和潜在报复措施有关的价格上涨已经促使投资者寻求分散资产。

Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, adds:

Bitget Research首席分析师Ryan Lee补充说：

The tariffs proposed by Trump could potentially multiply Bitcoin’s appeal by shaking trust in fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar, especially if inflationary pressures intensify. With a universal tariff of 20% threatening to provoke stagflation — rising costs without economic growth — combined with likely trade retaliation from global players, investors may increasingly turn to Bitcoin as a safe haven, exploiting its decentralized nature to protect themselves from the consequences of a global trade war.

特朗普提出的关税可能会通过对诸如美元之类的法定货币的信任来增加比特币的吸引力，尤其是在通货膨胀压力加剧的情况下。由于20％的普遍关税威胁要引发停滞（不经济增长的成本上升），再加上全球参与者的贸易报复，投资者可能会越来越多地将比特币作为避风港，利用其分散的性质来保护自己免受全球贸易战的影响。

Moreover, tariffs could increase inflationary pressures, strengthening the argument for Bitcoin as protection against the devaluation of traditional currencies. According to experts at Wells Fargo and Bank of America cited by Ryan Lee, these protectionist measures could “increase manufacturing prices and erode dollar dominance,” thus directing more capital towards crypto markets.

此外，关税可能会增加通货膨胀压力，从而加强比特币的论点​​，以防止传统货币贬值。根据瑞安·李（Ryan Lee）引用的富国银行（Wells Fargo）和美国银行（Ryan Lee）引用的专家，这些贸易保护主义措施可以“提高制造价格并削弱美元的统治地位”，从而将更多的资本引向加密货币市场。

Despite the current turbulence, Pandl remains optimistic:

尽管当前湍流，但PANDL仍然乐观：

I wouldn’t have left my job on Wall Street if I didn’t believe that Bitcoin would be the long-term winner.

如果我不相信比特币会成为长期赢家，我就不会离开华尔街的工作。

In summary, Trump’s tariffs represent a paradox for Bitcoin: negative in the short term, but potentially beneficial in the long run. If global economic uncertainty persists, Bitcoin could confirm its role as a credible alternative to the traditional financial system, especially in a context where trust in the dollar is gradually eroding.

总而言之，特朗普的关税代表了比特币的悖论：短期内消极，但从长远来看可能会有益。如果全球经济不确定性仍然存在，则比特币可以确认其作为传统金融体系可靠的替代品的作用，尤其是在美元信任逐渐侵蚀的情况下。