美元在國際貿易和全球儲備中的主導地位從未受到過質疑

的確，德意志銀行對不斷增長的現象發出了警報：美國盟友之間的宣傳。

Deutsche Bank has issued a stark warning about a growing phenomenon that could have far-reaching consequences for the global financial system: the decreasing role of the U.S. dollar in international trade and global reserves.

德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）發出了關於不斷增長的現象可能對全球金融體系產生深遠影響的現象的明顯警告：美元在國際貿易和全球儲備中的作用下降。

As geopolitical tensions escalate and financial sanctions are imposed, several nations are seeking to reduce their dependence on the greenback.

隨著地緣政治緊張局勢的升級和財務制裁的實施，幾個國家正在尋求減少其對綠色的依賴。

If this trend accelerates, it could disrupt the global monetary balance and redefine power dynamics within the international financial system.

如果這種趨勢加速，它可能會破壞國際金融體系內的全球貨幣平衡並重新定義權力動態。

Growing Tensions Around the Greenback

在綠色背景周圍越來越緊張

Deutsche Bank has sounded the alarm on a phenomenon that is unfolding with increasing speed. Numerous countries, allies of the United States, are reducing their reliance on the dollar for their trade transactions and foreign exchange reserves.

德意志銀行在一種隨著速度越來越多的現像中發出了警報。美國盟友的許多國家正在減少其對貿易交易和外匯儲備的依賴。

According to the bank, this dynamic is being driven by the rise of economic and geopolitical tensions. “The pressures from U.S. sanctions and the uncertainties around monetary policy are pushing many countries to seek alternatives to the dollar,” explains a report from the financial institution.

根據銀行的說法，這種動態是由經濟和地緣政治緊張局勢的興起驅動的。金融機構的一份報告解釋說：“美國製裁的壓力和貨幣政策的不確定性正在促使許多國家尋求替代美元的替代方案。”

Major players in international trade, such as China, Russia, and some Gulf states, have already begun shifting towards other currencies, notably the yuan and the euro.

國際貿易的主要參與者，例如中國，俄羅斯和一些海灣州，已經開始轉向其他貨幣，尤其是人民幣和歐元。

Recent tensions with Washington and the fear of the dollar being used as a tool of diplomatic pressure are accelerating this transition. Some countries are aiming to secure their exchanges and sign agreements for payments in local currencies to thereby reduce their dependence on fluctuations of the greenback.

最近與華盛頓的緊張局勢以及對美元被用作外交壓力工具的恐懼正在加速這一過渡。一些國家的目的是確保其交流和簽署當地貨幣支付的協議，從而減少其對綠背波動的依賴。

The Gradual Erosion of the Dollar’s Role

美元角色的逐漸侵蝕

Historically, the dollar has held a dominant position in the global financial system thanks to several advantages:

從歷史上看，由於幾個優勢，美元在全球金融體系中佔據主導地位：

Yet, several indicators show that this hegemony is weakening. The IMF has reported a gradual decline in the dollar’s share of global reserves, reaching its lowest level in decades.

然而，一些指標表明這種霸權正在削弱。國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）報告說，美元儲備金的份額逐漸下降，幾十年來達到其最低水平。

At the same time, international transactions in dollars are decreasing, in favor of bilateral agreements in alternative currencies.

同時，國際交易的美元交易正在減少，有利於替代貨幣的雙邊協議。

This shift does not happen overnight, but the signs of a monetary rebalancing are multiplying. For financial markets, such an evolution could lead to greater exchange rate volatility and a reconsideration of the historical advantages that the dollar enjoyed in international financing.

這種轉變並非一夜之間發生，但是貨幣重新平衡的跡象正在增加。對於金融市場，這種發展可能會導致匯率波動更大，並重新考慮了美元在國際融資中所享有的歷史優勢。

Alternatives Emerge Against the Dollar : Towards a New Global Monetary Balance ?

替代品違反美元：朝著新的全球貨幣平衡邁進嗎？

With the rise of uncertainties related to the greenback, several initiatives aim to build a more multipolar financial system. China is actively promoting the internationalization of the yuan, notably through trade agreements with emerging countries.

隨著與綠背有關的不確定性的興起，幾項旨在建立更多極性金融體系的計劃。中國正在積極促進人民幣的國際化，尤其是通過與新興國家的貿易協定。

Russia, for its part, has turned to transactions in rubles and yuan for its raw material exports.

就其原材料出口而言，俄羅斯已轉向盧布和人民幣的交易。

Other countries, particularly in Asia and Latin America, are strengthening their exchanges in local currencies to avoid passing through the dollar for their transactions.

其他國家，特別是在亞洲和拉丁美洲，正在加強其當地貨幣的交流，以避免通過美元進行交易。

This evolution is also observed in the commodities sector, where some oil contracts are now denominated in yuan. The objective is clear: to limit exposure to fluctuations of the greenback and reduce the grip of the American financial system on the global economy.

在商品部門也觀察到了這種進化，那裡的一些石油合同現在在元中被列為。目的是明確的：限制暴露於綠背的波動，並減少美國金融體係對全球經濟的控制。

In this context of monetary recomposition, cryptocurrencies could find their place. Bitcoin, often considered an alternative store of value, benefits from the growing mistrust towards traditional fiat currencies. Some nations are also exploring the potential of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) as a means to bypass the dollar.

在這種貨幣重新分配的情況下，加密貨幣可以找到自己的位置。比特幣通常被認為是一種價值的替代存儲，從對傳統菲亞特貨幣的不信任感中受益。一些國家還在探索中央銀行數字貨幣（CBDC）的潛力，以此作為繞過美元的一種手段。

However, the rise of cryptocurrencies in this new environment will depend on several factors: institutional adoption, regulation, and investor confidence.

但是，在這個新環境中加密貨幣的興起將取決於幾個因素：機構採用，監管和投資者信心。

If dedollarization continues, it could reinforce the role of cryptocurrencies as a decentralized global exchange solution, competing with traditional currencies.

如果繼續進行脫落，它可以加強加密貨幣作為分散的全球交換解決方案的作用，並與傳統貨幣競爭。

The warning from Deutsche Bank highlights a phenomenon that could reshape the contours of the international monetary system. If dedollarization accelerates, the world could shift towards a more fragmented model, where multiple currencies share global economic dominance. In this context, financial market participants and investors must anticipate the repercussions of a world where the dollar is no longer the uncontested king.

德意志銀行的警告突出了一種現象，可以重塑國際貨幣體系的輪廓。如果塗金加速，世界可能會轉向更加分散的模型，多種貨幣具有全球經濟優勢。在這種情況下，金融市場的參與者和投資者必須預期美元不再是無爭議的國王的世界的影響。