狗狗幣：這隻狗想跑

我在 Seeking Alpha 上使用狗狗幣（DOGE-USD）的歷史並不是一種欽佩。 2023 年 12 月，我高度看空該貨幣，並將 DOGE 稱為我 2023 年加密熊的首選。

Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) has had a wild ride in 2023, surging over 1,200% year-to-date. The meme coin, which was created in 2013 as a joke, has seen its market cap swell to over $130 billion, making it one of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.

狗狗幣 (DOGE-USD) 在 2023 年經歷了一段瘋狂的旅程，年初至今飆升了 1,200% 以上。這款 Meme 幣於 2013 年作為一個笑話而誕生，目前其市值已飆升至超過 1300 億美元，成為按市值計算的十大加密貨幣之一。

Dogecoin's surge has been fueled by a number of factors, including increased interest from retail investors, the listing of DOGE on major cryptocurrency exchanges, and the coin's use in a number of high-profile transactions. In January, Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk announced that the electric car maker would accept Dogecoin for some merchandise.

狗狗幣的飆升受到多種因素的推動，包括散戶投資者興趣的增加、狗狗幣在主要加密貨幣交易所的上市，以及狗狗幣在許多備受矚目的交易中的使用。一月份，特斯拉 (TSLA) 執行長馬斯克宣布，這家電動車製造商將接受狗狗幣作為部分商品。

However, despite Dogecoin's impressive gains, some analysts remain skeptical of the coin's long-term prospects. In December, I named Dogecoin my top crypto bear pick for 2023, arguing that the coin was fundamentally overvalued and due for a sharp correction.

然而，儘管狗狗幣的漲幅令人印象深刻，但一些分析師仍然對該幣的長期前景持懷疑態度。去年 12 月，我將狗狗幣列為 2023 年加密貨幣熊市的首選，認為狗狗幣從根本上被高估了，需要大幅調整。

Now, with DOGE up over 1,200% YTD, I'm taking another look at the coin to see if my bearish view still holds.

現在，隨著 DOGE 年初至今上漲超過 1,200%，我正在重新審視該代幣，看看我的看跌觀點是否仍然成立。

The Good

好的

Dogecoin has a number of strengths that have contributed to its success.

狗狗幣擁有許多促成其成功的優勢。

* Strong community: Dogecoin is supported by a large and passionate community of investors, known as the "Doge Army." The community is very active on social media and other online platforms, and it has helped to spread the word about Dogecoin and generate interest from new investors.

* 強大的社群：狗狗幣得到了龐大而熱情的投資者社群的支持，被稱為「狗狗軍團」。該社群在社群媒體和其他線上平台上非常活躍，有助於傳播狗狗幣並引起新投資者的興趣。

* High liquidity: Dogecoin is one of the most liquid cryptocurrencies, with an average daily trading volume of over $50 billion. This liquidity makes it easy for investors to buy and sell Dogecoin, which is another factor that has contributed to its popularity.

* 高流動性：狗狗幣是流動性最強的加密貨幣之一，每日平均交易量超過 500 億美元。這種流動性使投資者可以輕鬆買賣狗狗幣，這是其受歡迎的另一個因素。

* Low transaction fees: Dogecoin has some of the lowest transaction fees among cryptocurrencies, typically ranging from $0.01 to $0.05. These low fees make Dogecoin an attractive option for small transactions and everyday use.

* 交易費用低：狗狗幣的交易費用是加密貨幣中最低的，通常在 0.01 美元到 0.05 美元之間。這些低廉的費用使狗狗幣成為小額交易和日常使用的有吸引力的選擇。

The Bad

壞處

Despite Dogecoin's strengths, there are also a number of weaknesses that could limit its long-term potential.

儘管狗狗幣具有優勢，但也存在一些可能限制其長期潛力的弱點。

* No intrinsic value: Dogecoin, like other meme coins, does not have any underlying technology or use case that generates revenue or cash flow. This makes the coin's price highly dependent on speculation and investor sentiment, which can be volatile and unpredictable.

*沒有內在價值：狗狗幣與其他迷因幣一樣，沒有任何產生收入或現金流的底層技術或用例。這使得代幣的價格高度依賴投機和投資者情緒，而投機和投資者情緒可能波動且不可預測。

* High inflation: Dogecoin has a maximum supply of 132 billion coins, which is significantly more than other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC-USD). This large supply creates a high rate of inflation for the coin, which could erode its purchasing power over time.

* 高通膨：狗狗幣的最大供應量為 1,320 億枚，明顯多於比特幣 (BTC-USD) 等其他加密貨幣。如此大的供應量會導致代幣的高通貨膨脹率，隨著時間的推移，這可能會削弱其購買力。

* Limited use cases: Dogecoin is primarily used as a speculative investment or a medium of exchange for small transactions. However, the coin has not yet been widely adopted for large-scale payments or other use cases, which could limit its demand and long-term growth potential.

* 有限的用例：狗狗幣主要用作投機投資或小額交易的交換媒介。然而，該代幣尚未廣泛用於大規模支付或其他用例，這可能會限制其需求和長期成長潛力。

The Bottom Line

底線

Dogecoin has certainly had an impressive run in 2023, but I still believe that the coin is fundamentally overvalued and due for a sharp correction.

狗狗幣在 2023 年的表現確實令人印象深刻，但我仍然認為該幣從根本上被高估，並且需要大幅調整。

Dogecoin's price is not supported by any underlying technology, use case, or cash flow. This makes the coin's price highly dependent on speculation and investor sentiment, which can be volatile and unpredictable. In addition, Dogecoin's large supply and high inflation could erode its purchasing power over time.

狗狗幣的價格不受任何基礎技術、用例或現金流的支援。這使得代幣的價格高度依賴投機和投資者情緒，而投機和投資者情緒可能波動且不可預測。此外，狗狗幣的大量供應和高通膨可能會隨著時間的推移而削弱其購買力。

While Dogecoin may continue to rise in the short term, I believe that the coin's long-term prospects are limited. I would not be surprised to see Dogecoin decline by 75% or more from current levels over the next 12-18 months.

雖然狗狗幣短期內可能會繼續上漲，但我認為該幣的長期前景有限。如果狗狗幣在未來 12-18 個月內從當前水平下跌 75% 或更多，我不會感到驚訝。