狗狗币：这只狗想跑

我在 Seeking Alpha 上使用狗狗币（DOGE-USD）的历史并不是一种钦佩。 2023 年 12 月，我高度看空该货币，并将 DOGE 称为我 2023 年加密熊的首选。

Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) has had a wild ride in 2023, surging over 1,200% year-to-date. The meme coin, which was created in 2013 as a joke, has seen its market cap swell to over $130 billion, making it one of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.

狗狗币 (DOGE-USD) 在 2023 年经历了一段疯狂的旅程，年初至今飙升了 1,200% 以上。这款 Meme 币于 2013 年作为一个笑话而诞生，目前其市值已飙升至超过 1300 亿美元，成为按市值计算的十大加密货币之一。

Dogecoin's surge has been fueled by a number of factors, including increased interest from retail investors, the listing of DOGE on major cryptocurrency exchanges, and the coin's use in a number of high-profile transactions. In January, Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk announced that the electric car maker would accept Dogecoin for some merchandise.

狗狗币的飙升受到多种因素的推动，包括散户投资者兴趣的增加、狗狗币在主要加密货币交易所的上市，以及狗狗币在许多备受瞩目的交易中的使用。一月份，特斯拉 (TSLA) 首席执行官埃隆·马斯克宣布，这家电动汽车制造商将接受狗狗币作为部分商品。

However, despite Dogecoin's impressive gains, some analysts remain skeptical of the coin's long-term prospects. In December, I named Dogecoin my top crypto bear pick for 2023, arguing that the coin was fundamentally overvalued and due for a sharp correction.

然而，尽管狗狗币的涨幅令人印象深刻，但一些分析师仍然对该币的长期前景持怀疑态度。去年 12 月，我将狗狗币列为 2023 年加密货币熊市的首选，认为狗狗币从根本上被高估了，需要大幅调整。

Now, with DOGE up over 1,200% YTD, I'm taking another look at the coin to see if my bearish view still holds.

现在，随着 DOGE 年初至今上涨超过 1,200%，我正在重新审视该代币，看看我的看跌观点是否仍然成立。

The Good

好的

Dogecoin has a number of strengths that have contributed to its success.

狗狗币拥有许多促成其成功的优势。

* Strong community: Dogecoin is supported by a large and passionate community of investors, known as the "Doge Army." The community is very active on social media and other online platforms, and it has helped to spread the word about Dogecoin and generate interest from new investors.

* 强大的社区：狗狗币得到了庞大而热情的投资者社区的支持，被称为“狗狗军团”。该社区在社交媒体和其他在线平台上非常活跃，它有助于传播狗狗币并引起新投资者的兴趣。

* High liquidity: Dogecoin is one of the most liquid cryptocurrencies, with an average daily trading volume of over $50 billion. This liquidity makes it easy for investors to buy and sell Dogecoin, which is another factor that has contributed to its popularity.

* 高流动性：狗狗币是流动性最强的加密货币之一，日均交易量超过 500 亿美元。这种流动性使投资者可以轻松买卖狗狗币，这是其受欢迎的另一个因素。

* Low transaction fees: Dogecoin has some of the lowest transaction fees among cryptocurrencies, typically ranging from $0.01 to $0.05. These low fees make Dogecoin an attractive option for small transactions and everyday use.

* 交易费用低：狗狗币的交易费用是加密货币中最低的，通常在 0.01 美元到 0.05 美元之间。这些低廉的费用使狗狗币成为小额交易和日常使用的有吸引力的选择。

The Bad

坏处

Despite Dogecoin's strengths, there are also a number of weaknesses that could limit its long-term potential.

尽管狗狗币具有优势，但也存在一些可能限制其长期潜力的弱点。

* No intrinsic value: Dogecoin, like other meme coins, does not have any underlying technology or use case that generates revenue or cash flow. This makes the coin's price highly dependent on speculation and investor sentiment, which can be volatile and unpredictable.

*没有内在价值：狗狗币与其他模因币一样，没有任何产生收入或现金流的底层技术或用例。这使得代币的价格高度依赖于投机和投资者情绪，而投机和投资者情绪可能波动且不可预测。

* High inflation: Dogecoin has a maximum supply of 132 billion coins, which is significantly more than other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC-USD). This large supply creates a high rate of inflation for the coin, which could erode its purchasing power over time.

* 高通胀：狗狗币的最大供应量为 1320 亿枚，明显多于比特币 (BTC-USD) 等其他加密货币。如此巨大的供应量造成了代币的高通货膨胀率，随着时间的推移，这可能会削弱其购买力。

* Limited use cases: Dogecoin is primarily used as a speculative investment or a medium of exchange for small transactions. However, the coin has not yet been widely adopted for large-scale payments or other use cases, which could limit its demand and long-term growth potential.

* 有限的用例：狗狗币主要用作投机投资或小额交易的交换媒介。然而，该代币尚未广泛应用于大规模支付或其他用例，这可能会限制其需求和长期增长潜力。

The Bottom Line

底线

Dogecoin has certainly had an impressive run in 2023, but I still believe that the coin is fundamentally overvalued and due for a sharp correction.

狗狗币在 2023 年的表现确实令人印象深刻，但我仍然认为该币从根本上被高估，并且需要大幅调整。

Dogecoin's price is not supported by any underlying technology, use case, or cash flow. This makes the coin's price highly dependent on speculation and investor sentiment, which can be volatile and unpredictable. In addition, Dogecoin's large supply and high inflation could erode its purchasing power over time.

狗狗币的价格不受任何基础技术、用例或现金流的支持。这使得代币的价格高度依赖于投机和投资者情绪，而投机和投资者情绪可能波动且不可预测。此外，狗狗币的大量供应和高通胀可能会随着时间的推移削弱其购买力。

While Dogecoin may continue to rise in the short term, I believe that the coin's long-term prospects are limited. I would not be surprised to see Dogecoin decline by 75% or more from current levels over the next 12-18 months.

虽然狗狗币短期内可能会继续上涨，但我认为该币的长期前景有限。如果狗狗币在未来 12-18 个月内从当前水平下跌 75% 或更多，我不会感到惊讶。