在揮發性加密景觀中解密XRP的不同路徑

加密貨幣市場是一個恆定通量的領域，情緒可以迅速轉移，命運可以改變眼睛的眨眼。

The cryptocurrency market is a volatile domain, where sentiment changes rapidly and fortunes can turn in the blink of an eye. As major cryptocurrencies grapple with the aftermath of recent market downturns, Ripple’s XRP has exhibited remarkable resilience.

加密貨幣市場是一個揮發性的領域，情緒迅速變化，命運可能會眨眨眼。隨著主要的加密貨幣應對最近市場下滑的後果，Ripple的XRP表現出了顯著的彈性。

While other coins have seen significant price declines and investor losses, XRP has managed to maintain a degree of stability, even posting modest gains in the past month.1 This stability is surprising, given the bearish signals arising from the derivatives market.

儘管其他硬幣的價格下降和投資者損失很大，但XRP設法保持了一定程度的穩定性，甚至在過去一個月中發布了適度的收益。1鑑於衍生品市場產生了看跌信號，這種穩定令人驚訝。

Declining open interest and negative funding rates in the futures market are typically associated with a strong bearish bias, which could suggest further price declines for the cryptocurrency. However, XRP has shown resilience to these bearish signals, suggesting that another force is at play.

期貨市場中的開放利息和負資金率下降通常與強烈的看跌偏見有關，這可能暗示加密貨幣的價格進一步下降。但是，XRP對這些看跌信號表明了韌性，這表明另一種力量正在發揮作用。

This article delves into the intricate dynamics shaping XRP’s price action in the present market. We will examine the interplay between bearish derivatives data, robust investor profitability, and the potential for a bullish reversal in the technical indicators.

本文深入研究了複雜的動態，塑造了XRP在當前市場中的價格行動。我們將研究看跌衍生品數據，強大的投資者盈利能力以及在技術指標中逆轉的潛力之間的相互作用。

The Bearish Signals: Declining Open Interest and Negative Funding Rates

看跌信號：開放利息和負資金率下降

Derivatives market data provides valuable insights into the prevailing sentiment and positioning of traders. In the case of XRP, recent data from major derivatives exchanges reveals a persistent bearish bias, characterized by declining open interest and negative funding rates.

衍生品市場數據為交易者的普遍情緒和定位提供了寶貴的見解。就XRP而言，來自主要導數交換的最新數據表明，持續的看跌偏見，其特徵是開放利息和負資金負數下降。

Declining Open Interest: Measured by the total amount of outstanding contracts, open interest in XRP futures has been trending downwards in recent weeks. This decrease in open interest may indicate a reduction in traders’ interest in the cryptocurrency or a closing out of existing positions.

開放利息的下降：通過未償還合同的總金額來衡量，XRP期貨的開放利息在最近幾週一直向下趨勢。開放利息的減少可能表明，交易者對加密貨幣的利息減少或遠離現有職位。

The chart above from TradingView shows the 1-month chart for the total amount of Open Interest in BTC, ETH, and XRP perpetual futures contracts on major exchanges. As of August 8th,

TradingView的上圖顯示了BTC，ETH和XRP永久期貨在主要交易所中的開放率總額的1個月圖表。截至8月8日

* BTC OI stands at $12 billion.

* BTC OI的資金為120億美元。

* ETH OI is at $7.6 billion.

* ETH OI為76億美元。

* XRP OI is at $650 million.

* XRP OI為6.5億美元。

Funding Rates: Reflecting the premium or discount paid by perpetual futures traders to maintain their positions, XRP’s funding rates have remained largely negative over the past month. On average, traders have been paid a small fee to hold onto their XRP futures positions, which could be a factor in the cryptocurrency’s resilience despite the bearish market signals.

資金率：反映永久期貨交易者為維持職位支付的保費或折扣，XRP的籌資率在過去一個月中仍基本負數。平均而言，貿易商收取少量費用來保留其XRP期貨職位，儘管看跌市場信號，這可能是加密貨幣的彈性的一個因素。

XRP’s Resilience: The Power of High Investor Profitability

XRP的韌性：高投資者盈利能力的力量

Despite the bearish signals emanating from the derivatives market, XRP has shown remarkable resilience, experiencing a relatively low price decline compared to other top cryptocurrencies.

儘管衍生品市場發出了看跌信號，但與其他頂級加密貨幣相比，XRP表現出顯著的彈性，價格下降相對較低。

This resilience can be attributed, in part, to the high profitability of XRP investors, particularly long-term holders (LTH), who have realised significant gains from their investments.

這種韌性可以部分歸因於XRP投資者，尤其是長期持有人（LTH）的高利潤，他們從投資中實現了巨大的收益。

According to crypto analytics firm Glassnode, XRP investors remain highly profitable, boasting an impressive realised profit ratio of 157%. This is the highest among the top seven cryptocurrencies, highlighting the strength of XRP holders in the present market downturn.

根據Crypto Analytics公司GlassNode的數據，XRP投資者仍然有利可圖，其實現的利潤率為157％。這是前七名加密貨幣中最高的，強調了XRP持有者在當前市場下滑中的實力。

As of August 7th, the realised profit/loss ratio for major cryptocurrencies is:

截至8月7日，主要加密貨幣的已實現的損益比是：

* BTC: -60%

* BTC：-60％

* ETH: -53%

* ETH：-53％

* LTC: -67%

* LTC：-67％

* LINK: -62%

*鏈接：-62％

* XRP: 157%

* XRP：157％

* ADA: -52%

* ADA：-52％

* SOL: -50%

* SOL：-50％

This resilience is even more apparent when considering the Payoff Ratio, which measures the average profit or loss for investors who closed their positions within a specific timeframe.

在考慮收益比率時，這種韌性更為明顯，這可以衡量在特定時間範圍內關閉其頭寸的投資者的平均利潤或損失。

In the past month, XRP investors who exited their positions on major exchanges realised an impressive Payoff Ratio of 242%, showcasing the significant gains reaped by those who sold their XRP holdings recently.

在過去的一個月中，XRP投資者退出了主要交易所職位的XRP投資者的收益比率為242％，這表明那些最近出售其XRP Holdings的人獲得了巨大的收益。

This is in stark contrast to other cryptocurrencies, which are largely in the red. For instance, BTC investors closed their positions with an average Payoff Ratio of -38% over the past month.

這與其他主要在紅色中的加密貨幣形成鮮明對比。例如，BTC投資者在過去一個月中以-38％的平均收益率結束了職位。

Technical Analysis: The Descending Channel and Potential Breakout

技術分析：下降渠道和潛在的突破

From a technical analysis perspective, XRP is currently consolidating within a descending channel, a pattern that typically indicates a bearish trend. However, there are signs that XRP could be poised for a potential breakout from this channel.

從技術分析的角度來看，XRP目前正在降級通道中鞏固，這種模式通常表明看跌趨勢。但是，有跡象表明XRP可以預先從該頻道中進行潛在的突破。

The price is approaching the top band of the channel, and a break above this level could signal a reversal of the bearish trend.

價格正在接近頻道的頂級頻帶，超過此水平的突破可能表明逆轉看跌趨勢。

Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing signs of divergence with the price. The price has made lower lows, but the RSI is forming higher lows, which could be a bullish signal.

此外，相對強度指數（RSI）顯示出與價格發散的跡象。價格降低了低點，但是RSI的低點較高，這可能是看漲的信號。

The Ripple-SEC Case: A Lingering Uncertainty

Ripple-SEC案件：揮之不去的不確定性

The ongoing legal battle between Ripple and the SEC continues to cast a shadow over XRP’s price action. The case, which began in December 2020, centers around the SEC’s claims that Ripple illegally sold unregistered securities in the form of XRP.

Ripple和SEC之間正在進行的法律鬥爭繼續對XRP的價格行動產生陰影。該案始於2020年12月，圍繞美國證券交易委員會（SEC）聲稱以XRP的形式出售了未註冊的證券的聲稱。

However, recent reports suggest that the two parties may be open to engaging in settlement talks. Such a development could be a significant step towards resolving the case and reducing the uncertainty hanging over XRP investors.

但是，最近的報告表明，兩黨可能開放進行和解談判。這樣的發展可能是解決案件並減少XRP投資者懸而未決的不確定性的重要一步。

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