在挥发性加密景观中解密XRP的不同路径

加密货币市场是一个恒定通量的领域，情绪可以迅速转移，命运可以改变眼睛的眨眼。

The cryptocurrency market is a volatile domain, where sentiment changes rapidly and fortunes can turn in the blink of an eye. As major cryptocurrencies grapple with the aftermath of recent market downturns, Ripple’s XRP has exhibited remarkable resilience.

加密货币市场是一个挥发性的领域，情绪迅速变化，命运可能会眨眨眼。随着主要的加密货币应对最近市场下滑的后果，Ripple的XRP表现出了显着的弹性。

While other coins have seen significant price declines and investor losses, XRP has managed to maintain a degree of stability, even posting modest gains in the past month.1 This stability is surprising, given the bearish signals arising from the derivatives market.

尽管其他硬币的价格下降和投资者损失很大，但XRP设法保持了一定程度的稳定性，甚至在过去一个月中发布了适度的收益。1鉴于衍生品市场产生了看跌信号，这种稳定令人惊讶。

Declining open interest and negative funding rates in the futures market are typically associated with a strong bearish bias, which could suggest further price declines for the cryptocurrency. However, XRP has shown resilience to these bearish signals, suggesting that another force is at play.

期货市场中的开放利息和负资金率下降通常与强烈的看跌偏见有关，这可能暗示加密货币的价格进一步下降。但是，XRP对这些看跌信号表明了韧性，这表明另一种力量正在发挥作用。

This article delves into the intricate dynamics shaping XRP’s price action in the present market. We will examine the interplay between bearish derivatives data, robust investor profitability, and the potential for a bullish reversal in the technical indicators.

本文深入研究了复杂的动态，塑造了XRP在当前市场中的价格行动。我们将研究看跌衍生品数据，强大的投资者盈利能力以及在技术指标中逆转的潜力之间的相互作用。

The Bearish Signals: Declining Open Interest and Negative Funding Rates

看跌信号：开放利息和负资金率下降

Derivatives market data provides valuable insights into the prevailing sentiment and positioning of traders. In the case of XRP, recent data from major derivatives exchanges reveals a persistent bearish bias, characterized by declining open interest and negative funding rates.

衍生品市场数据为交易者的普遍情绪和定位提供了宝贵的见解。就XRP而言，来自主要导数交换的最新数据表明，持续的看跌偏见，其特征是开放利息和负资金负数下降。

Declining Open Interest: Measured by the total amount of outstanding contracts, open interest in XRP futures has been trending downwards in recent weeks. This decrease in open interest may indicate a reduction in traders’ interest in the cryptocurrency or a closing out of existing positions.

开放利息的下降：通过未偿还合同的总金额来衡量，XRP期货的开放利息在最近几周一直向下趋势。开放利息的减少可能表明，交易者对加密货币的利息减少或远离现有职位。

The chart above from TradingView shows the 1-month chart for the total amount of Open Interest in BTC, ETH, and XRP perpetual futures contracts on major exchanges. As of August 8th,

TradingView的上图显示了BTC，ETH和XRP永久期货在主要交易所中的开放率总额的1个月图表。截至8月8日

* BTC OI stands at $12 billion.

* BTC OI的资金为120亿美元。

* ETH OI is at $7.6 billion.

* ETH OI为76亿美元。

* XRP OI is at $650 million.

* XRP OI为6.5亿美元。

Funding Rates: Reflecting the premium or discount paid by perpetual futures traders to maintain their positions, XRP’s funding rates have remained largely negative over the past month. On average, traders have been paid a small fee to hold onto their XRP futures positions, which could be a factor in the cryptocurrency’s resilience despite the bearish market signals.

资金率：反映永久期货交易者为维持职位支付的保费或折扣，XRP的筹资率在过去一个月中仍基本负数。平均而言，贸易商收取少量费用来保留其XRP期货职位，尽管看跌市场信号，这可能是加密货币的弹性的一个因素。

XRP’s Resilience: The Power of High Investor Profitability

XRP的韧性：高投资者盈利能力的力量

Despite the bearish signals emanating from the derivatives market, XRP has shown remarkable resilience, experiencing a relatively low price decline compared to other top cryptocurrencies.

尽管衍生品市场发出了看跌信号，但与其他顶级加密货币相比，XRP表现出显着的弹性，价格下降相对较低。

This resilience can be attributed, in part, to the high profitability of XRP investors, particularly long-term holders (LTH), who have realised significant gains from their investments.

这种韧性可以部分归因于XRP投资者，尤其是长期持有人（LTH）的高利润，他们从投资中实现了巨大的收益。

According to crypto analytics firm Glassnode, XRP investors remain highly profitable, boasting an impressive realised profit ratio of 157%. This is the highest among the top seven cryptocurrencies, highlighting the strength of XRP holders in the present market downturn.

根据Crypto Analytics公司GlassNode的数据，XRP投资者仍然有利可图，其实现的利润率为157％。这是前七名加密货币中最高的，强调了XRP持有者在当前市场下滑中的实力。

As of August 7th, the realised profit/loss ratio for major cryptocurrencies is:

截至8月7日，主要加密货币的已实现的损益比是：

* BTC: -60%

* BTC：-60％

* ETH: -53%

* ETH：-53％

* LTC: -67%

* LTC：-67％

* LINK: -62%

*链接：-62％

* XRP: 157%

* XRP：157％

* ADA: -52%

* ADA：-52％

* SOL: -50%

* SOL：-50％

This resilience is even more apparent when considering the Payoff Ratio, which measures the average profit or loss for investors who closed their positions within a specific timeframe.

在考虑收益比率时，这种韧性更为明显，这可以衡量在特定时间范围内关闭其头寸的投资者的平均利润或损失。

In the past month, XRP investors who exited their positions on major exchanges realised an impressive Payoff Ratio of 242%, showcasing the significant gains reaped by those who sold their XRP holdings recently.

在过去的一个月中，XRP投资者退出了主要交易所职位的XRP投资者的收益比率为242％，这表明那些最近出售其XRP Holdings的人获得了巨大的收益。

This is in stark contrast to other cryptocurrencies, which are largely in the red. For instance, BTC investors closed their positions with an average Payoff Ratio of -38% over the past month.

这与其他主要在红色中的加密货币形成鲜明对比。例如，BTC投资者在过去一个月中以-38％的平均收益率结束了职位。

Technical Analysis: The Descending Channel and Potential Breakout

技术分析：下降渠道和潜在的突破

From a technical analysis perspective, XRP is currently consolidating within a descending channel, a pattern that typically indicates a bearish trend. However, there are signs that XRP could be poised for a potential breakout from this channel.

从技术分析的角度来看，XRP目前正在降级通道中巩固，这种模式通常表明看跌趋势。但是，有迹象表明XRP可以预先从该频道中进行潜在的突破。

The price is approaching the top band of the channel, and a break above this level could signal a reversal of the bearish trend.

价格正在接近频道的顶级频带，超过此水平的突破可能表明逆转看跌趋势。

Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing signs of divergence with the price. The price has made lower lows, but the RSI is forming higher lows, which could be a bullish signal.

此外，相对强度指数（RSI）显示出与价格发散的迹象。价格降低了低点，但是RSI的低点较高，这可能是看涨的信号。

The Ripple-SEC Case: A Lingering Uncertainty

Ripple-SEC案件：挥之不去的不确定性

The ongoing legal battle between Ripple and the SEC continues to cast a shadow over XRP’s price action. The case, which began in December 2020, centers around the SEC’s claims that Ripple illegally sold unregistered securities in the form of XRP.

Ripple和SEC之间正在进行的法律斗争继续对XRP的价格行动产生阴影。该案始于2020年12月，围绕美国证券交易委员会（SEC）声称以XRP的形式出售了未注册的证券的声称。

However, recent reports suggest that the two parties may be open to engaging in settlement talks. Such a development could be a significant step towards resolving the case and reducing the uncertainty hanging over XRP investors.

但是，最近的报告表明，两党可能开放进行和解谈判。这样的发展可能是解决案件并减少XRP投资者悬而未决的不确定性的重要一步。

Broader Market

更广泛的市场