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基於加密恐懼和貪婪指數,價格下跌的價格會變成“極端恐懼”,該指數的讀數為10,比例為1至100。
The cryptocurrency market is plunging as Bitcoin ends February on a bearish note. The market sentiments have turned to "Extreme Fear" with a reading of 10 on a scale of 1 to 100, according to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.
隨著比特幣在2月以看跌的票據結束,加密貨幣市場正在下降。根據Crypto Fear&Greed Index的說法,市場情緒變成了“極端恐懼”,讀取10的範圍為1至100。
This compares with last week's "Neutral" reading of 49. Meanwhile, last month, the index had a reading of 72 ("Greed") and 94, signifying "Extreme Greed" in November.
相比之下,上週的“中性”讀數為49。與此同時,上個月,該索引的讀數為72(“貪婪”)和94,表示11月的“極端貪婪”。
The sentiments reflect the market condition perfectly, with a -22.14% drawdown. It is actually the worst February since 2014, when BTC went down about 31%.
情感完美地反映了市場狀況,下降幅度為-22.14%。它實際上是自2014年2月最糟糕的情況,當時BTC下降了約31%。
This is also the reddest month for Bitcoin since June 2022, when the world's largest cryptocurrency's performance was -37.28%. According to crypto data provider Santiment, Bitcoin whales and sharks have dumped ~6,813 coins since last week, which is the largest drop since last July.
這也是自2022年6月以來比特幣的最新月份,當時世界上最大的加密貨幣的性能為-37.28%。根據加密數據提供商的關注,自上週以來,比特幣鯨和鯊魚已經傾倒了約6,813枚硬幣,這是自去年7月以來最大的下降。
Similar data is presented by IntoTheblock, which noted that addresses holding between 10k and 100k BTC were the primary sellers during this dip.
Intotheblock提出了類似的數據,該數據指出,在此浸入過程中,持有10K至100K BTC之間的持有的是主要賣家。
At the same time, significant deleveraging is taking place, with short-term traders' account balances dropping to levels not seen since October 2024. IntoTheblock noted:
同時,正在發生重大的去槓桿化,短期交易者的帳戶餘額下降到自2024年10月以來未見的水平。intotheblock指出:
"By flushing out excessive speculation, the market may have formed a healthier base for sustained upward momentum."
“通過沖洗過多的猜測,市場可能形成了一個更健康的基礎,以持續持續向上勢頭。”
A decline in BTC price means a crash in altcoins, which have already been performing badly for months now. And with Bitcoin's negative performance, they have been simply obliterated.
BTC價格的下跌意味著Altcoins發生崩潰,幾個月來表現不佳。隨著比特幣的負面性能,它們被簡單地消失了。
The market rout started this week when the BTC price was around $96K, only for it to fall below $78,400 on February 28. With that, the total cryptocurrency market cap has fallen down to $2.7 trillion. The crypto market is currently in a precarious situation, and it's hard to say if this is the bottom.
市場潰敗開始於本週BTC的價格約為96,000美元,僅在2月28日下降到78,400美元以下。隨之而來的是加密貨幣市值下降至2.7萬億美元。加密市場目前處於不穩定的狀態,很難說這是否是底層。
The $1.57 trillion market cap of Bitcoin is now down 28% from its all-time high (ATH) of 109,000 hit on January 20, the day Donald Trump was inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States.
現在,比特幣市值為1.57萬億美元的市值現在比1月20日的歷史最高點(ATH)下跌了28%,唐納德·特朗普(Donald Trump)被揭幕成美,為美國第47任總統。
The correction level is fast intensifying, already above this cycle's average drawdown of -8.54%; it is now also surpassing the maximum drawdown of -26.25%, though still nowhere near past cycle's crashes.
校正水平快速加強,已經超過了該週期的平均水平均水位為-8.54%;現在,它也超過了-26.25%的最大降低,儘管仍然遠未達到上週期的崩潰。
According to Glassnode, there is an air gap in realized supply between $70K and $88K, with these ranges having lower realized supply concentration due to strong trends leading to price appreciation that tends to outpace capital inflows.
根據GlassNode的說法,實現的供應量在$ 70K到8.8萬美元之間,由於強烈的趨勢導致價格升值,這些範圍的供應集中度較低,這往往會超過資本流入。
With Bitcoin price plunging to the level last seen in mid-November, during its uptrend following Trump's win, "recent investors are experiencing severe psychological stress."
隨著比特幣的價格跌至11月中旬的最後水平,在特朗普獲勝後的上升趨勢中,“最近的投資者正遇到嚴重的心理壓力。”
A decline in new investor profitability also means "significant unrealized losses, a condition historically leading to capitulation events or forced sell-offs during market downtrends."
新投資者盈利能力的下降也意味著“大量未實現的損失,這是歷史上導致投降事件或在市場下降期間強制拋售的條件。”
Additionally, Short Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR), which measures whether short-term holders are selling at a profit or loss, has dropped significantly under one standard deviation threshold (-0.01), suggesting a notable increase in loss realization as many recent buyers are exiting positions at a loss. Glassnode stated:
此外,短期持有人支出的產出利率(STH-SOPR)衡量了短期持有人是否以利潤或損失出售,在一個標準偏差閾值下已大大下降(-0.01),這表明,由於許多最近的買家正在以損失的損失退出職位,因此損失實現的明顯增加。玻璃節指的是:
"Historically, deep SOPR contractions have led to at least temporary market stabilization as weaker hands exit. However, under current macroeconomic conditions, the risk remains that the price decline could extend further if no strong demand catalyst emerges."
“從歷史上看,深厚的SOPR宮縮導致至少隨著手退出的弱點的臨時市場穩定。但是,在當前的宏觀經濟狀況下,如果沒有強大的需求催化劑出現,價格仍然可以進一步下降。”
While the pain is severe right now, not all hope is lost yet. Trader Bob Louaks believes we are very much in the bull market, and the ongoing dip is simply a correction that prepares the largest crypto asset for a more aggressive move, as seen in the last leg of bull cycles.
雖然疼痛現在很嚴重,但並非所有希望都消失了。交易員鮑勃·盧克斯(Bob Louaks)認為,我們在牛市上非常重要,而且持續的下降只是一種更正,為最大的加密資產做準備以進行更具侵略性的舉動,這在牛循環的最後一步中可以看出。
Data provider IntoTheblock also noted that despite the selling, Bitcoin addresses are busy accumulating more BTC, which indicates that traders are utilizing the dip to add to their BTC positions.
數據提供商Intotheblock還指出,儘管出售,比特幣地址忙於積累更多的BTC,這表明交易者正在利用DIP添加到其BTC位置。
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Record Massive Outflows
斑點比特幣ETF記錄大量流出
It's been more than a year since Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were approved by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in early January. During this period, these ETFs registered substantial inflows that helped BTC prices reach new heights.
自1月初被美國證券交易委員會(SEC)批准的現貨比特幣交易所資金(ETF)以來已經過去了一年多。在此期間,這些ETF記錄了大量流入,幫助BTC價格達到了新的高度。
But of course, this journey wasn't all up only. There have been periods where these investment vehicles experienced significant outflows for several days straight.
但是,當然,這一旅程不僅僅是上升。在某些時期,這些投資工具連續幾天經歷了大量流出。
For instance, last year in March, there were five consecutive days of outflows, which increased to seven in late April-early May and then to eight in June and late Aug-early Sept, according to data from Farside. The rest of the days weren't all inflows, but they still dominated.
例如,根據Farside的數據,去年3月,連續五天的流出量增加了五天,在4月下旬至5月下旬,然後在6月和8月下旬的9月上升到八個。剩下的日子並不是全部流入,但它們仍然占主導地位。
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