加密貨幣可能是將我們越過邊緣越來越開放的原因

儘管我們目前並不缺少任何催化劑，但可能是加密貨幣將我們越過邊緣越來越開放。

Now that we've covered the main catalysts, let's move on to a cryptocurrency theory.

現在，我們已經涵蓋了主要的催化劑，讓我們繼續進行加密貨幣理論。

There is no phenomenon like crypto. Some of it was no doubt created by geniuses (whatever you think of Bitcoin, the concept is pretty incredible), some was created as a pure mocking joke (Dogecoin from Musk) and some is just created by and for flat out idiots (Hawk Tuah coin, Fartcoin, ten thousand others).

沒有像加密這樣的現象。毫無疑問，其中有些是由天才創造的（無論您想到比特幣，這個概念都令人難以置信），有些是作為一個純粹的嘲笑笑話（來自馬斯克的Dogecoin）而創建的，而有些則是由平坦的白痴（Hawk tuah Coin，Fartcoin，fartcoin，1萬，而其他）創造的。

The polarity of opinions is incredible, with hyper intelligence on either side. Some of the very smartest people mock crypto mercilessly (the otherwise ultra-rational and now gone Charlie Munger once referred to crypto as ‘rat poison’, later upping the ante considerably: "Suppose you could make a lot of money trading freshly harvested baby brains. You wouldn't trade them, would you? It's too awful a concept. To me, Bitcoin is almost as bad. ... I regard the thing as a combination of dementia and immorality. And I think the people pushing it are a disgrace."), while other smartest-people-I've-ever-encountered consider crypto a Godsend for an entire slice of (non-criminal) humanity that has no access to a sound local banking system (several billion people) and a brilliant innovation.

意見的極性令人難以置信，雙方都有超級智慧。一些最聰明的人無情地模擬加密（現在，查理·蒙格（Charlie Munger）曾經將加密貨幣稱為“老鼠毒藥”，後來大大提高了賭注：推動它是一種恥辱。”），而其他最聰明的人 - 我遇到過的遇到的crypto a Godsend a Godsend to the slice of（非犯罪）人類無法獲得合理的本地銀行體系（數十億人）和出色的創新。

Some people just jump camps. Trump mocked crypto a few years ago, and now wants to make the US the “crypto capital of the universe” or some such hyperbole, and just the other day announced creation of a Crypto Strategic Reserve (in a sign of the extent of current policy chaos, Trump’s initial announcement via social media forgot to include the two most predominant cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin and Ethereum - that would be “the heart of the reserve.”).

有些人只是跳下來。 Trump mocked crypto a few years ago, and now wants to make the US the “crypto capital of the universe” or some such hyperbole, and just the other day announced creation of a Crypto Strategic Reserve (in a sign of the extent of current policy chaos, Trump's initial announcement via social media forgot to include the two most predominant cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin and Ethereum - that would be “the heart of the reserve.”).

What on earth is going on?

到底發生了什麼？

Well. Take a deep breath. Consider this fascinating angle that just might make a lot of sense.

出色地。深吸一口氣。考慮這個迷人的角度，這可能很有意義。

For full disclosure, this scenario is nothing my mind could piece together, ever. It originated with (I think) a very bright guy named Luke Gromen, one of those people that grasp macro issues before anyone else.

為了進行全面披露，這種情況是我的想法，永遠不會拼湊。它起源於（我認為）一個非常聰明的人盧克·格羅門（Luke Gromen），這是那些在其他人面前掌握宏觀問題的人之一。

Mr. Gromen spoke on a podcast of hearing Donald Trump proclaim that “Bitcoin is the new oil.” Now, Donald Trump says a lot of wild things, and some filtering is good for the sanity. After a few exposures, one develops a sort of Trump Translator that shaves down some of these hyperbolical mountains and so forth.

格羅門先生在聽證唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）宣稱“比特幣是新石油”的播客中發表了講話。現在，唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）說了很多狂野的事情，有些過濾對理智有益。經過幾次曝光，人們開發了一種特朗普翻譯人員，可以剃光其中一些誇張的山脈等等。

But this one is different. “Bitcoin is the new oil.” It stops you in your tracks. It’s something else. Not dumb, not hyperbole, not bombast.

但這是不同的。 “比特幣是新油。”它阻止您進入軌道。這是其他的。不是愚蠢的，不是誇張，不是炸彈。

Technically of course it’s not true either, in any practical physical sense. As Peter Zeihan says, oil is civilization. It just is. Hate it all you want, but you really shouldn’t, because it is the building block of everything in our material existence that isn’t made of stone, wood, or plant matter (and all of these are brought into your world via oil in one form or another, with modern abundant food supplies actually being the poster child for hydrocarbon value-add).

從技術上講，從任何實際的物理意義上講，這也不是真的。正如彼得·Zeihan（Peter Zeihan）所說，石油是文明。只是。討厭您想要的一切，但您真的不應該，因為它是我們物料存在中所有事物的基礎，不是由石頭，木材或植物物質製成的（所有這些都以一種或另一種形式通過油帶入您的世界，現代豐富的食品供應實際上是碳氫化合物值添加的海報的孩子）。

Bitcoin is an imaginary phenomenon dreamed up 15 years ago by some anonymous person or persons, a new medium of exchange that only ever touches reality in one critical juncture point: it requires vast and ever growing quantities of energy. So how could anyone even utter that phrase? “Bitcoin is the new oil.”

比特幣是15年前的某些匿名人物或人的想像現象，是一種新的交流媒介，只能在一個關鍵的關頭點上觸及現實：它需要大量且越來越多的能量。那麼，誰能說出這個短語呢？ “比特幣是新油。”

That question vexed the very intelligent Mr. Gromen, who mulled it over until he made a fascinating realization.

這個問題使格羅門先生感到不安，他對此進行了思考，直到他引人入勝。

As with Trump himself, put aside any negativity you feel towards crypto for a second (this is also a key to sanity in the modern age, btw; don’t judge, analyze; don’t ‘wish it weren’t so’, work with the hand that is dealt). Don’t take the sentence literally; that is, this isn’t a statement that BTC can approximate the functionality of oil. Think of it like: Can BTC accomplish a very specific task that oil also did?

與特朗普本人一樣，請拋開您對加密貨幣的任何消極情緒（這也是現代理智的關鍵，順便說一句；不要判斷，分析；不要“希望它不是那麼”，用交易的手來工作）。不要從字面上接受句子；也就是說，這不是BTC可以近似石油功能的陳述。想想：BTC可以完成一項非常具體的任務嗎？

Here is Gromen’s thesis. Back in 1973, the price of oil tripled in a relatively short time. This spike had massive repercussions because oil is everything, and when the cost of the economic lifeblood triples, it’s going to have a big impact.

這是格羅門的論文。早在1973年，石油價格在相對較短的時間內增加了兩倍。這種尖峰會產生巨大的影響，因為石油就是一切，當經濟命中率三倍的成本時，它將產生很大的影響。

The benefit to the US of having oil prices spike was that, because oil largely trades in US dollars, the global value of USD-denominated trade rose massively through the oil trade alone. When the price of oil spikes in USD, the demand for USD increases, and that means it is easier for the US to borrow money without causing a spike in interest rates. Many large scale investors that need to buy USD via trades just park their USD in government debt because there is so much of it, it is very liquid, and easy to enter/exit huge positions. This demand for US debt then pushes up the debt price, and pushes down the interest rate. Voila. (Note that the much-

石油價格飆升的好處是，因為石油大部分以美元交易，僅通過石油貿易，以美元計價的貿易的全球價值大幅增長。當油價上漲時，對美元的需求增加，這意味著美國更容易借錢而不會引起利率。許多大規模的投資者需要通過交易購買美元，只是將他們的美元停在政府債務中，因為它有很多，它非常流動，易於進入/退出巨大的職位。然後，對美國債務的需求提高了債務價格，並降低了利率。瞧。 （請注意，