加密货币可能是将我们越过边缘越来越开放的原因

尽管我们目前并不缺少任何催化剂，但可能是加密货币将我们越过边缘越来越开放。

Now that we've covered the main catalysts, let's move on to a cryptocurrency theory.

现在，我们已经涵盖了主要的催化剂，让我们继续进行加密货币理论。

There is no phenomenon like crypto. Some of it was no doubt created by geniuses (whatever you think of Bitcoin, the concept is pretty incredible), some was created as a pure mocking joke (Dogecoin from Musk) and some is just created by and for flat out idiots (Hawk Tuah coin, Fartcoin, ten thousand others).

没有像加密这样的现象。毫无疑问，其中有些是由天才创造的（无论您想到比特币，这个概念都令人难以置信），有些是作为一个纯粹的嘲笑笑话（来自马斯克的Dogecoin）而创建的，而有些则是由平坦的白痴（Hawk tuah Coin，Fartcoin，fartcoin，1万，而其他）创造的。

The polarity of opinions is incredible, with hyper intelligence on either side. Some of the very smartest people mock crypto mercilessly (the otherwise ultra-rational and now gone Charlie Munger once referred to crypto as ‘rat poison’, later upping the ante considerably: "Suppose you could make a lot of money trading freshly harvested baby brains. You wouldn't trade them, would you? It's too awful a concept. To me, Bitcoin is almost as bad. ... I regard the thing as a combination of dementia and immorality. And I think the people pushing it are a disgrace."), while other smartest-people-I've-ever-encountered consider crypto a Godsend for an entire slice of (non-criminal) humanity that has no access to a sound local banking system (several billion people) and a brilliant innovation.

意见的极性令人难以置信，双方都有超级智慧。一些最聪明的人无情地模仿加密货币（现在，查理·芒格（Charlie Munger）曾经将加密货币称为“老鼠毒药”，后来大大提高了赌注：“假设您可以赚到很多新鲜收获的婴儿大脑的钱，您不会交易他们，您会付出太多吗？不道德，我认为推动它的人是一种耻辱。

Some people just jump camps. Trump mocked crypto a few years ago, and now wants to make the US the “crypto capital of the universe” or some such hyperbole, and just the other day announced creation of a Crypto Strategic Reserve (in a sign of the extent of current policy chaos, Trump’s initial announcement via social media forgot to include the two most predominant cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin and Ethereum - that would be “the heart of the reserve.”).

有些人只是跳下来。 Trump mocked crypto a few years ago, and now wants to make the US the “crypto capital of the universe” or some such hyperbole, and just the other day announced creation of a Crypto Strategic Reserve (in a sign of the extent of current policy chaos, Trump's initial announcement via social media forgot to include the two most predominant cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin and Ethereum - that would be “the heart of the reserve.”).

What on earth is going on?

到底发生了什么？

Well. Take a deep breath. Consider this fascinating angle that just might make a lot of sense.

出色地。深吸一口气。考虑这个迷人的角度，这可能很有意义。

For full disclosure, this scenario is nothing my mind could piece together, ever. It originated with (I think) a very bright guy named Luke Gromen, one of those people that grasp macro issues before anyone else.

为了进行全面披露，这种情况是我的想法，永远不会拼凑。它起源于（我认为）一个非常聪明的人卢克·格罗门（Luke Gromen），这是那些在其他人面前掌握宏观问题的人之一。

Mr. Gromen spoke on a podcast of hearing Donald Trump proclaim that “Bitcoin is the new oil.” Now, Donald Trump says a lot of wild things, and some filtering is good for the sanity. After a few exposures, one develops a sort of Trump Translator that shaves down some of these hyperbolical mountains and so forth.

格罗门先生在听证唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）宣称“比特币是新石油”的播客中发表了讲话。现在，唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）说了很多狂野的事情，有些过滤对理智有益。经过几次曝光，人们开发了一种特朗普翻译人员，可以剃光其中一些夸张的山脉等等。

But this one is different. “Bitcoin is the new oil.” It stops you in your tracks. It’s something else. Not dumb, not hyperbole, not bombast.

但这是不同的。 “比特币是新油。”它阻止您进入轨道。这是其他的。不是愚蠢的，不是夸张，不是炸弹。

Technically of course it’s not true either, in any practical physical sense. As Peter Zeihan says, oil is civilization. It just is. Hate it all you want, but you really shouldn’t, because it is the building block of everything in our material existence that isn’t made of stone, wood, or plant matter (and all of these are brought into your world via oil in one form or another, with modern abundant food supplies actually being the poster child for hydrocarbon value-add).

从技术上讲，从任何实际的物理意义上讲，这也不是真的。正如彼得·Zeihan（Peter Zeihan）所说，石油是文明。只是。讨厌您想要的一切，但您真的不应该，因为它是我们物料存在中所有事物的基础，不是由石头，木材或植物物质制成的（所有这些都以一种或另一种形式通过油带入您的世界，现代丰富的食品供应实际上是碳氢化合物值添加的海报的孩子）。

Bitcoin is an imaginary phenomenon dreamed up 15 years ago by some anonymous person or persons, a new medium of exchange that only ever touches reality in one critical juncture point: it requires vast and ever growing quantities of energy. So how could anyone even utter that phrase? “Bitcoin is the new oil.”

比特币是15年前的某些匿名人物或人的想象现象，是一种新的交流媒介，只能在一个关键的关头点上触及现实：它需要大量且越来越多的能量。那么，谁能说出这个短语呢？ “比特币是新油。”

That question vexed the very intelligent Mr. Gromen, who mulled it over until he made a fascinating realization.

这个问题使格罗门先生感到不安，他对此进行了思考，直到他引人入胜。

As with Trump himself, put aside any negativity you feel towards crypto for a second (this is also a key to sanity in the modern age, btw; don’t judge, analyze; don’t ‘wish it weren’t so’, work with the hand that is dealt). Don’t take the sentence literally; that is, this isn’t a statement that BTC can approximate the functionality of oil. Think of it like: Can BTC accomplish a very specific task that oil also did?

与特朗普本人一样，请抛开您对加密货币的任何消极情绪（这也是现代理智的关键，顺便说一句；不要判断，分析；不要“希望它不是那么”，用交易的手来工作）。不要从字面上接受句子；也就是说，这不是BTC可以近似石油功能的陈述。想想：BTC可以完成一项非常具体的任务吗？

Here is Gromen’s thesis. Back in 1973, the price of oil tripled in a relatively short time. This spike had massive repercussions because oil is everything, and when the cost of the economic lifeblood triples, it’s going to have a big impact.

这是格罗门的论文。早在1973年，石油价格在相对较短的时间内增加了两倍。这种尖峰会产生巨大的影响，因为石油就是一切，当经济命中率三倍的成本时，它将产生很大的影响。

The benefit to the US of having oil prices spike was that, because oil largely trades in US dollars, the global value of USD-denominated trade rose massively through the oil trade alone. When the price of oil spikes in USD, the demand for USD increases, and that means it is easier for the US to borrow money without causing a spike in interest rates. Many large scale investors that need to buy USD via trades just park their USD in government debt because there is so much of it, it is very liquid, and easy to enter/exit huge positions. This demand for US debt then pushes up the debt price, and pushes down the interest rate. Voila. (Note that the much-

石油价格飙升的好处是，因为石油大部分以美元交易，仅通过石油贸易，以美元计价的贸易的全球价值大幅增长。当油价上涨时，对美元的需求增加，这意味着美国更容易借钱而不会引起利率。许多大规模的投资者需要通过交易购买美元，只是将他们的美元停在政府债务中，因为它有很多，它非常流动，易于进入/退出巨大的职位。然后，对美国债务的需求提高了债务价格，并降低了利率。瞧。 （请注意 -