加密市場正朝著即將發生的災難

這是由混亂的全球經濟因素和特朗普徵收的無情關稅所推動的。投資者越來越擔心，但仍然存在脆弱的希望

In the heart of the crypto market, a cataclysm is brewing: a staggering crash of assets with a disconcerting probability of 70%! This, fueled by chaotic global economic factors and the ruthless tariffs imposed by Trump. Investors are increasingly worried, but a fragile hope remains, the only thing capable of stopping this descent into hell.

在加密市場的核心中，災難正在釀造：一場驚人的資產崩潰，令人不安的概率為70％！這是由混亂的全球經濟因素和特朗普徵收的無情關稅所推動的。投資者越來越擔心，但仍然存在脆弱的希望，這是唯一能夠阻止這種下降進入地獄的東西。

An inevitable 70% crash in the crypto market?

在加密貨幣市場中不可避免的70％崩潰？

On April 2, President Donald Trump announced tariff measures aimed at reducing the trade deficit of the United States. This decision comes at a crucial time for financial markets, particularly crypto. Indeed, American monetary policy and global trade tensions have a direct impact on the dynamics of Bitcoin and Ethereum.

4月2日，唐納德·特朗普總統宣布了旨在減少美國貿易赤字的關稅措施。這個決定是對金融市場的關鍵時刻，尤其是加密貨幣。實際上，美國貨幣政策和全球貿易緊張局勢對比特幣和以太坊的動態有直接影響。

According to an analysis by Nansen, there is a 70% probability that the crypto market will hit a low (i.e., a bottom or a downward bounce) by June, due to economic factors such as uncertainty regarding American economic policies and the actions of the FED to manage a soft recession.

根據南森（Nansen）的分析，由於經濟因素（例如關於美國經濟政策的不確定性以及美聯儲管理軟體衰退的行動），到6月，加密貨幣市場將在6月跌至低點（即底部或向下彈跳）的可能性70％。

Especially since the main American stock indices and BTC have failed to sustainably surpass their 200-day moving averages, while those of the shorter term are declining. Crypto investors will therefore need to closely monitor upcoming economic data, such as ISM, employment rates, and Jerome Powell’s speech.

特別是由於美國主要的股票指數和BTC未能可持續超過其200天的搬遷平均值，而較短的期限的搬遷平均值正在下降。因此，加密投資者將需要密切監視即將到來的經濟數據，例如ISM，就業率和杰羅姆·鮑威爾的講話。

Is hope in BTC’s hands?

BTC手中的希望是嗎？

While the situation seems critical, an unexpected factor could shake this dynamic: the behavior of Bitcoin whales. These investors holding significant amounts of BTC (between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC) have begun a massive accumulation of crypto since early 2025, a strategy previously observed before the major bullish rallies of 2020.

儘管情況似乎至關重要，但意外的因素可能會動搖這種動態：比特幣鯨的行為。自2025年初以來，這些持有大量BTC的投資者（在1,000至10,000 BTC之間）已經開始大量加密貨幣，這是一項先前在2020年主要看漲集會之前觀察到的策略。

This trend of intense buying, even in an uncertain market environment, suggests that the whales anticipate a rise in Bitcoin’s value. If this historical pattern repeats, a surge in BTC could be expected as early as June 2025, at which point this bearish low would end.

即使在不確定的市場環境中，這種強烈購買的趨勢也表明，鯨魚預計比特幣的價值會上升。如果這種歷史模式重複，那麼早在2025年6月，BTC可能會發生激增，這時這種看跌的低點將結束。

Thus, if this expected rise in Bitcoin in June 2025 materializes, it could become a major catalyst for the entire crypto market. The optimism generated by a BTC rally would likely attract new investors, also boosting demand for other altcoins. A positive dynamic that could then lead to a widespread recovery of the crypto market.

因此，如果2025年6月的預期比特幣的這種預期增加，它可能會成為整個加密貨幣市場的主要催化劑。 BTC拉力賽產生的樂觀情緒可能會吸引新的投資者，從而提高對其他Altcoins的需求。一種積極的動力，可以導致加密市場的廣泛恢復。

As Trump continues to unsettle the crypto market that loses 130 billion in a few days, a new major uncertainty is added with this 70% probability of a crash. However, the accumulation by Bitcoin whales and a BTC rebound in June could transform this dynamic. If these signals are confirmed, a rapid and general recovery of the crypto market could follow.

隨著特朗普繼續在幾天內失去1300億的加密貨幣市場，增加了新的重大不確定性，這是70％的崩潰可能性。但是，比特幣鯨的積累和6月的BTC反彈可能會改變這種動態。如果確認這些信號，則可以隨後迅速恢復加密市場。