加密市场正朝着即将发生的灾难

这是由混乱的全球经济因素和特朗普征收的无情关税所推动的。投资者越来越担心，但仍然存在脆弱的希望

In the heart of the crypto market, a cataclysm is brewing: a staggering crash of assets with a disconcerting probability of 70%! This, fueled by chaotic global economic factors and the ruthless tariffs imposed by Trump. Investors are increasingly worried, but a fragile hope remains, the only thing capable of stopping this descent into hell.

在加密市场的核心中，灾难正在酿造：一场惊人的资产崩溃，令人不安的概率为70％！这是由混乱的全球经济因素和特朗普征收的无情关税所推动的。投资者越来越担心，但仍然存在脆弱的希望，这是唯一能够阻止这种下降进入地狱的东西。

An inevitable 70% crash in the crypto market?

在加密货币市场中不可避免的70％崩溃？

On April 2, President Donald Trump announced tariff measures aimed at reducing the trade deficit of the United States. This decision comes at a crucial time for financial markets, particularly crypto. Indeed, American monetary policy and global trade tensions have a direct impact on the dynamics of Bitcoin and Ethereum.

4月2日，唐纳德·特朗普总统宣布了旨在减少美国贸易赤字的关税措施。这个决定是对金融市场的关键时刻，尤其是加密货币。实际上，美国货币政策和全球贸易紧张局势对比特币和以太坊的动态有直接影响。

According to an analysis by Nansen, there is a 70% probability that the crypto market will hit a low (i.e., a bottom or a downward bounce) by June, due to economic factors such as uncertainty regarding American economic policies and the actions of the FED to manage a soft recession.

根据南森（Nansen）的分析，由于经济因素（例如关于美国经济政策的不确定性以及美联储管理软体衰退的行动），到6月，加密货币市场将在6月跌至低点（即底部或向下弹跳）的可能性70％。

Especially since the main American stock indices and BTC have failed to sustainably surpass their 200-day moving averages, while those of the shorter term are declining. Crypto investors will therefore need to closely monitor upcoming economic data, such as ISM, employment rates, and Jerome Powell’s speech.

特别是由于美国主要的股票指数和BTC未能可持续超过其200天的搬迁平均值，而较短的期限的搬迁平均值正在下降。因此，加密投资者将需要密切监视即将到来的经济数据，例如ISM，就业率和杰罗姆·鲍威尔的讲话。

Is hope in BTC’s hands?

BTC手中的希望是吗？

While the situation seems critical, an unexpected factor could shake this dynamic: the behavior of Bitcoin whales. These investors holding significant amounts of BTC (between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC) have begun a massive accumulation of crypto since early 2025, a strategy previously observed before the major bullish rallies of 2020.

尽管情况似乎至关重要，但意外的因素可能会动摇这种动态：比特币鲸的行为。自2025年初以来，这些持有大量BTC的投资者（在1,000至10,000 BTC之间）已经开始大量加密货币，这是一项先前在2020年主要看涨集会之前观察到的策略。

This trend of intense buying, even in an uncertain market environment, suggests that the whales anticipate a rise in Bitcoin’s value. If this historical pattern repeats, a surge in BTC could be expected as early as June 2025, at which point this bearish low would end.

即使在不确定的市场环境中，这种强烈购买的趋势也表明，鲸鱼预计比特币的价值会上升。如果这种历史模式重复，那么早在2025年6月，BTC可能会发生激增，这时这种看跌的低点将结束。

Thus, if this expected rise in Bitcoin in June 2025 materializes, it could become a major catalyst for the entire crypto market. The optimism generated by a BTC rally would likely attract new investors, also boosting demand for other altcoins. A positive dynamic that could then lead to a widespread recovery of the crypto market.

因此，如果2025年6月的预期比特币的这种预期增加，它可能会成为整个加密货币市场的主要催化剂。 BTC拉力赛产生的乐观情绪可能会吸引新的投资者，从而提高对其他Altcoins的需求。一种积极的动力，可以导致加密市场的广泛恢复。

As Trump continues to unsettle the crypto market that loses 130 billion in a few days, a new major uncertainty is added with this 70% probability of a crash. However, the accumulation by Bitcoin whales and a BTC rebound in June could transform this dynamic. If these signals are confirmed, a rapid and general recovery of the crypto market could follow.

随着特朗普继续在几天内失去1300亿的加密货币市场，增加了新的重大不确定性，这是70％的崩溃可能性。但是，比特币鲸的积累和6月的BTC反弹可能会改变这种动态。如果确认这些信号，则可以随后迅速恢复加密市场。