加密市場幾個月來剛剛經歷了其最暴力的下滑之一。

加密市場幾個月來剛剛經歷了其最暴力的下滑之一。 1月20日達到歷史悠久的高價109,000美元之後，比特幣跌倒了28％。

The crypto market has just experienced one of its most violent downturns in months. After reaching a historic high of $109,000 on January 20, Bitcoin plunged by 28 % over the past three weeks. This drop has wiped out billions of dollars in market capitalization.

加密市場幾個月來剛剛經歷了其最暴力的下滑之一。在1月20日達到歷史悠久的高價109,000美元之後，比特幣在過去三周中下降了28％。這種下降已經消除了數十億美元的市值。

Such a brutal reversal occurs against a backdrop of economic tension and turbulence in the financial markets. But beyond a simple technical correction, several major events have contributed to this decline. Among fears of macroeconomic instability, record cyberattacks, and political disillusionments, we take a look back at the causes of this downfall and its implications.

這種殘酷的逆轉是在金融市場經濟緊張和動蕩的背景下發生的。但是，除了簡單的技術校正之外，幾項重大事件導致了這種下降。在對宏觀經濟不穩定，記錄網絡攻擊和政治幻滅的恐懼中，我們回顧了這種倒台及其含義的原因。

A crash amplified by external shocks

外部衝擊放大的崩潰

The volatility of Bitcoin is not surprising, but this time, the drop can be explained by a conjunction of major shocks. Indeed, the first trigger factor is based on an unfavorable macroeconomic context. Since Donald Trump’s arrival at the White House, his economic announcements have sown confusion in the markets. In particular, the prospect of new tariffs on international trade has cooled investors. “This retreat can be interpreted as a response to macroeconomic fears related to Trump’s tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty,” explains Caroline Bowler, CEO of BTC Markets.

比特幣的波動不足為奇，但是這次，可以通過重大衝擊的結合來解釋跌落。確實，第一個觸發因素是基於不利的宏觀經濟環境。自唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）到達白宮以來，他的經濟公告在市場上播出了困惑。特別是，對國際貿易的新關稅的前景使投資者冷卻了。 BTC市場首席執行官Caroline Bowler解釋說：“這種務虛會可以解釋為對與特朗普的關稅和地緣政治不確定性有關的宏觀經濟恐懼的回應。”

The correction goes beyond Bitcoin. Additionally, the Nasdaq 100 has lost 7 % since its last peak on February 19, illustrating a widespread distrust of risky assets.

更正超出了比特幣。此外，自2月19日上次峰值以來，納斯達克100號損失了7％，這說明了對風險資產的普遍不信任。

The Achilles' heel of the crypto ecosystem, cybersecurity, has also played a crucial role. On February 21, 2025, the Bybit exchange suffered the largest hacking in crypto history, orchestrated by North Korea’s Lazarus Group. The hackers stole $1.5 billion in crypto. They primarily succeeded in breaching the cold wallets, which are supposed to be ultra-secure as they are disconnected from the Internet.

加密生態系統網絡安全的阿喀琉斯高跟鞋也發揮了至關重要的作用。 2025年2月21日，Bybit Exchange遭受了由朝鮮的Lazarus集團精心策劃的加密歷史上最大的黑客入侵。黑客在加密貨幣中偷走了15億美元。他們主要成功地破壞了冷錢包，因為它們與互聯網斷開了連接，因此應該是超安全的。

“Trust has been shaken after this $1.5 billion hack, which represents a colossal sum,” emphasizes Zaheer Ebtikar, co-founder of Split Capital Fund. This shock triggered a panic sell-off, but it has also intensified doubts about the reliability of trading infrastructures, resulting in the temporary withdrawal of some investors from the market.

Split Capital Fund的聯合創始人Zaheer Ebtikar強調說：“這一15億美元的黑客攻擊之後，信託基金會受到震動。”這種衝擊引發了恐慌的拋售，但它也激發了人們對交易基礎設施的可靠性的懷疑，導致一些投資者暫時退出了市場。

A market under pressure and disappointed expectations

在壓力下的市場和失望的期望

The price decline has then been exacerbated by technical market movements. In February, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a net outflow of $3.3 billion, a negative record since their launch in January 2024. The dynamic is simple: when the price of Bitcoin drops, some investors withdraw their capital from ETFs, which increases selling pressure on the market. Thus, “speculative money that enters Bitcoin also exits quickly when a correction occurs,” analyzes Michael Rosen, investment director at Angeles Investments.

然後，技術市場變動加劇了價格下跌。 2月，比特幣交易所交易基金（ETFS）記錄了自2024年1月推出以來的33億美元淨流出，這是一個負面記錄。動態很簡單：當比特幣的價格下降時，一些投資者從ETF中撤出資金，從而增加了市場上的銷售壓力。因此，“進入比特幣的投機資金也會在進行更正時迅速退出，” Angeles Investments的投資總監Michael Rosen分析。

Another aggravating factor is the end of optimism related to Donald Trump. During his campaign, the American president positioned himself as a staunch advocate of cryptos and promised the establishment of a national Bitcoin stockpile. But since his inauguration, concrete announcements have been slow to arrive. The project led by Senator Cynthia Lummis, which aimed to have the U.S. government purchase up to a million bitcoins over five years, has found no support in Congress.

另一個加重因素是與唐納德·特朗普有關的樂觀情緒的終結。在他的競選期間，美國總統將自己定位為加密的堅定倡導者，並承諾建立一個國家比特幣庫存。但是自從他就職典禮以來，具體公告的到來很慢。由參議員辛西婭·盧米斯（Cynthia Lummis）領導的項目旨在使美國政府在五年內購買多達一百萬比特幣，但在國會沒有任何支持。

“What drives this decline is the absence of the pro-crypto executive orders that were expected and the inflation figures in the United States,” explains Paul Howard, director at Wincent. Even at the state level, ambitions for strategic Bitcoin reserves have been stymied: Montana, North Dakota, and Wyoming have all rejected proposals in this regard, citing the risks and volatility of cryptos.

“導致這種下降的是缺乏預期的親克萊普特執行命令，以及美國的通貨膨脹數字。”即使在州一級，戰略比特幣儲備的野心也受到阻礙：蒙大拿州，北達科他州和懷俄明州都拒絕了這方面的提議，理由是加密貨幣的風險和波動。

After this brutal correction, the market is now questioning the next direction of Bitcoin. Is this a simple consolidation before a new bull run, or the beginning of a longer bear cycle? It will all depend on Trump’s economic decisions, on the evolution of regulation, and above all, on whether investor confidence returns or not. For now, caution remains the order of the day, and Bitcoin will need to demonstrate its resilience in the face of this new stress test.

經過此殘酷糾正，市場現在正在質疑比特幣的下一個方向。這是在新的公牛運行之前的簡單合併，還是更長的熊週期的開始？這一切都取決於特朗普的經濟決定，法規的發展，最重要的是，投資者信心是否返回。目前，謹慎仍然是一天的順序，面對這項新的壓力測試，比特幣將需要證明其韌性。