芝商所比特幣選擇權預示著川普當選以來最看漲的市場，新的歷史高點即將到來？

CME 比特幣選擇權分析 CME（芝加哥商業交易所）是芝加哥交易所，是全球持有量最大的交易所

The price of Bitcoin has been rising steadily over the past few weeks, and now some analysts are pointing to a positive signal coming from the CME Bitcoin options prices.

過去幾週，比特幣的價格一直在穩步上漲，現在一些分析師指出，芝商所比特幣選擇權價格發出了正面訊號。

According to CF Benchmarks, traders are piling into short and long-term maturities, offering asymmetric upside exposure to rising BTC price both in the short and long term.

根據 CF Benchmarks 的數據，交易者紛紛買入短期和長期到期的債券，為短期和長期的 BTC 價格上漲提供不對稱的上行風險敞口。

CF Benchmarks, which provides indices on digital assets, highlights that traders have predominantly purchased call options.

CF Benchmarks 提供數位資產指數，強調交易者主要購買看漲期權。

The CME Bitcoin options showed the strongest bull sentiment since Trump’s electoral victory yesterday.

芝商所比特幣選擇權顯示出自川普昨天贏得選舉以來最強勁的看漲情緒。

In fact, they turn out to be the most bull since the elections in the USA concluded with the victory of Donald Trump.

事實上，事實證明，他們是自美國大選以唐納德·特朗普獲勝以來最樂觀的一次。

The options on Bitcoin traded at the CME showed the strongest bull sentiment since Trump’s electoral victory yesterday.

芝加哥商品交易所交易的比特幣選擇權顯示出自川普昨天贏得選舉以來最強勁的看漲情緒。

In particular, CF Benchmarks claims that traders are actively positioning themselves in anticipation of a rise in the price of BTC, both in the short-term and long-term maturities.

CF Benchmarks 特別指出，交易者正在積極佈局，以應對 BTC 價格上漲的預期，無論是短期還是長期。

CF Benchmarks, which deals with indices on digital assets, points out that traders have mainly purchased call options, which offer asymmetric upside exposure.

從事數位資產指數研究的 CF Benchmarks 指出，交易者主要購買買權，這些選擇權提供不對稱的上行風險。

As a result, the skew has risen to 4.4%, which is indeed the highest level since the beginning of November. The skew is the difference in implied volatility between calls and puts, and positive values represent a bull sentiment.

結果，偏度上升至4.4%，這確實是11月初以來的最高水準。偏度是買權和賣權之間隱含波動率的差異，正值代表買權情緒。

According to the head of products at CF Benchmarks, Thomas Erdösi, this reflects a strong bull sentiment, with traders actively positioning themselves for bull exposure on both short and long-term maturities. Erdösi also believes that volatility levels might slightly decrease towards the end of the month, but, barring any surprise political developments, the bull pressure on the price will remain.

CF Benchmarks 產品主管 Thomas Erdösi 表示，這反映了強烈的牛市情緒，交易者積極為短期和長期的牛市敞口做好準備。 Erdösi 也認為，波動水平可能會在月底略有下降，但是，除非出現任何意外的政治事態發展，否則價格的牛市壓力將持續存在。

To all this must be added the good performance of the last days of the ETFs on BTC spot.

除此之外，還必須加上 BTC 現貨 ETF 最後幾天的良好表現。

In particular, on Friday, daily total inflows exceeded one billion dollars, which is not very far from the all-time record of 1.3 billion.

特別是星期五，單日總流入量超過10億美元，距離歷史最高紀錄13億美元已經不遠了。

Furthermore, yesterday the overall daily inflows still exceeded 800 million dollars, of which 660 million were towards the single BlackRock ETF alone.

此外，昨天每日總流入量仍超過8億美元，其中僅單一貝萊德ETF就有6.6億美元。

According to BRN analyst Valentin Fournier, these new inflows could also push prices to new highs.

BRN 分析師 Valentin Fournier 表示，這些新的資金流入也可能將價格推至新高。

The analyst states that ETF inflows have continued their accumulation streak with four consecutive days of significant inflows. In total, over these four days, more than 3 billion dollars have flowed into Bitcoin, and 74 million into Ethereum. This indicates that the two cryptos are receiving solid institutional support.

該分析師表示，ETF 資金流入持續保持增持勢頭，已連續四天大幅流入。總的來說，在這四天內，已有超過 30 億美元流入比特幣，7,400 萬美元流入以太坊。這表明這兩種加密貨幣正在獲得堅實的機構支持。

But that’s not all. There are also other data showing how the short-term trend seems to be positive.

但這還不是全部。還有其他數據顯示短期趨勢似乎是正面的。

According to the data from Glassnode, long-term holders of Bitcoin are finally reducing profit-taking.

Glassnode的數據顯示，比特幣的長期持有者終於減少了獲利了結。

It should be remembered that after the all-time high on December 17 above $108,000, a phase began in which many long-term BTC holders preferred to take profit by selling. This phase practically lasted until last week, while for a few days now this trend seems to have started to run out.

應該記住，在 12 月 17 日突破 108,000 美元的歷史高點之後，許多長期 BTC 持有者傾向於透過拋售獲利的階段開始。這個階段實際上一直持續到上週，而最近幾天，這種趨勢似乎已經開始消失。

To this must also be added that the total number of BTC on crypto exchanges available for sale is at the lowest in recent years, and this in fact keeps the selling pressure low.

除此之外，還必須補充的是，加密貨幣交易所中可供出售的 BTC 總數處於近年來的最低水平，這實際上使拋售壓力保持在較低水平。

The low selling pressure, however, is not sufficient to increase prices, but if it remains so, it can also allow even a minimal increase in buying pressure to make them rise. On the other hand, this is precisely what seems to have happened in recent days, as evidenced by the increase in inflows into ETFs.

然而，較低的拋售壓力不足以推高價格，但如果這種情況持續存在，即使是最小的買壓增加也可能導致價格上漲。另一方面，這正是最近幾天似乎發生的情況，ETF 資金流入的增加證明了這一點。

Other positive signals are, for example, the one coming from the US dollar. In fact, the Dollar Index has fallen below 108 points, while last week it had risen well above 109 points.

其他積極信號包括來自美元的信號。事實上，美元指數已跌破108點，而上週則遠高於109點。

Even the interest rates of US government bonds are slightly decreasing, and this highlights a greater propensity for risk-off assets, although this still appears to be a dynamic of little significance, given the minimal extent of the decrease.

就連美國政府公債的利率也在小幅下降，這突顯了避險資產的更大傾向，儘管考慮到下降幅度很小，這似乎仍然是一個意義不大的動態。

It should finally be added that even in January 2017, after Trump’s first inauguration at the White House, towards the end of the month the bull run resumed, after more than a month of substantial lateralization.

最後應該補充的是，即使在 2017 年 1 月，即川普首次入主白宮後，在經歷了一個多月的大幅橫向化之後，牛市在接近月底時又恢復了。

There are not only positive signals, but at this moment the negative ones seem to be few and not very evident. However, it is important to emphasize that the crypto markets are sometimes unpredictable, and it is not uncommon for them to end up doing the opposite of what is expected.

不僅有正面的訊號，目前負面的訊號似乎也很少，而且不是很明顯。然而，需要強調的是，加密貨幣市場有時是不可預測的，而最終做出與預期相反的事情並不少見。