芝商所比特币期权预示着自特朗普当选以来最看涨的市场，新的历史高点即将到来？

CME 比特币期权分析 CME（芝加哥商业交易所）是芝加哥交易所，是世界上持仓量最大的交易所

The price of Bitcoin has been rising steadily over the past few weeks, and now some analysts are pointing to a positive signal coming from the CME Bitcoin options prices.

过去几周，比特币的价格一直在稳步上涨，现在一些分析师指出，芝商所比特币期权价格发出了积极信号。

According to CF Benchmarks, traders are piling into short and long-term maturities, offering asymmetric upside exposure to rising BTC price both in the short and long term.

根据 CF Benchmarks 的数据，交易者纷纷买入短期和长期到期的债券，为短期和长期的 BTC 价格上涨提供不对称的上行风险敞口。

CF Benchmarks, which provides indices on digital assets, highlights that traders have predominantly purchased call options.

CF Benchmarks 提供数字资产指数，强调交易者主要购买看涨期权。

The CME Bitcoin options showed the strongest bull sentiment since Trump’s electoral victory yesterday.

芝商所比特币期权显示出自特朗普昨天赢得选举以来最强劲的看涨情绪。

In fact, they turn out to be the most bull since the elections in the USA concluded with the victory of Donald Trump.

事实上，事实证明，他们是自美国大选以唐纳德·特朗普获胜以来最乐观的一次。

The options on Bitcoin traded at the CME showed the strongest bull sentiment since Trump’s electoral victory yesterday.

芝加哥商品交易所交易的比特币期权显示出自特朗普昨天赢得选举以来最强劲的看涨情绪。

In particular, CF Benchmarks claims that traders are actively positioning themselves in anticipation of a rise in the price of BTC, both in the short-term and long-term maturities.

CF Benchmarks 特别指出，交易者正在积极布局，以应对 BTC 价格上涨的预期，无论是短期还是长期。

CF Benchmarks, which deals with indices on digital assets, points out that traders have mainly purchased call options, which offer asymmetric upside exposure.

从事数字资产指数研究的 CF Benchmarks 指出，交易者主要购买看涨期权，这些期权提供不对称的上行风险。

As a result, the skew has risen to 4.4%, which is indeed the highest level since the beginning of November. The skew is the difference in implied volatility between calls and puts, and positive values represent a bull sentiment.

结果，偏度上升至4.4%，这确实是11月初以来的最高水平。偏度是看涨期权和看跌期权之间隐含波动率的差异，正值代表看涨情绪。

According to the head of products at CF Benchmarks, Thomas Erdösi, this reflects a strong bull sentiment, with traders actively positioning themselves for bull exposure on both short and long-term maturities. Erdösi also believes that volatility levels might slightly decrease towards the end of the month, but, barring any surprise political developments, the bull pressure on the price will remain.

CF Benchmarks 产品主管 Thomas Erdösi 表示，这反映了强烈的牛市情绪，交易者积极为短期和长期的牛市敞口做好准备。 Erdösi 还认为，波动水平可能会在月底略有下降，但是，除非出现任何意外的政治事态发展，否则价格的牛市压力将持续存在。

To all this must be added the good performance of the last days of the ETFs on BTC spot.

除此之外，还必须加上 BTC 现货 ETF 最后几天的良好表现。

In particular, on Friday, daily total inflows exceeded one billion dollars, which is not very far from the all-time record of 1.3 billion.

特别是周五，单日总流入量超过10亿美元，距离历史最高纪录13亿美元已经不远了。

Furthermore, yesterday the overall daily inflows still exceeded 800 million dollars, of which 660 million were towards the single BlackRock ETF alone.

此外，昨天每日总流入量仍超过8亿美元，其中仅单一贝莱德ETF就有6.6亿美元。

According to BRN analyst Valentin Fournier, these new inflows could also push prices to new highs.

BRN 分析师 Valentin Fournier 表示，这些新的资金流入也可能将价格推至新高。

The analyst states that ETF inflows have continued their accumulation streak with four consecutive days of significant inflows. In total, over these four days, more than 3 billion dollars have flowed into Bitcoin, and 74 million into Ethereum. This indicates that the two cryptos are receiving solid institutional support.

该分析师表示，ETF 资金流入继续保持增持势头，已连续四天出现大幅流入。总的来说，在这四天内，已有超过 30 亿美元流入比特币，7400 万美元流入以太坊。这表明这两种加密货币正在获得坚实的机构支持。

But that’s not all. There are also other data showing how the short-term trend seems to be positive.

但这还不是全部。还有其他数据显示短期趋势似乎是积极的。

According to the data from Glassnode, long-term holders of Bitcoin are finally reducing profit-taking.

Glassnode的数据显示，比特币的长期持有者终于减少了获利了结。

It should be remembered that after the all-time high on December 17 above $108,000, a phase began in which many long-term BTC holders preferred to take profit by selling. This phase practically lasted until last week, while for a few days now this trend seems to have started to run out.

应该记住，在 12 月 17 日突破 108,000 美元的历史高点之后，许多长期 BTC 持有者倾向于通过抛售获利的阶段开始。这个阶段实际上一直持续到上周，而最近几天，这种趋势似乎已经开始消失。

To this must also be added that the total number of BTC on crypto exchanges available for sale is at the lowest in recent years, and this in fact keeps the selling pressure low.

还必须补充的是，加密货币交易所中可供出售的 BTC 总数处于近年来的最低水平，这实际上使抛售压力保持在较低水平。

The low selling pressure, however, is not sufficient to increase prices, but if it remains so, it can also allow even a minimal increase in buying pressure to make them rise. On the other hand, this is precisely what seems to have happened in recent days, as evidenced by the increase in inflows into ETFs.

然而，较低的抛售压力不足以推高价格，但如果这种情况持续存在，即使是最小的买压增加也可能导致价格上涨。另一方面，这正是最近几天似乎发生的情况，ETF 资金流入的增加就证明了这一点。

Other positive signals are, for example, the one coming from the US dollar. In fact, the Dollar Index has fallen below 108 points, while last week it had risen well above 109 points.

其他积极信号包括来自美元的信号。事实上，美元指数已跌破108点，而上周则远高于109点。

Even the interest rates of US government bonds are slightly decreasing, and this highlights a greater propensity for risk-off assets, although this still appears to be a dynamic of little significance, given the minimal extent of the decrease.

就连美国政府债券的利率也在小幅下降，这突显了避险资产的更大倾向，尽管考虑到下降幅度很小，这似乎仍然是一个意义不大的动态。

It should finally be added that even in January 2017, after Trump’s first inauguration at the White House, towards the end of the month the bull run resumed, after more than a month of substantial lateralization.

最后应该补充的是，即使是在 2017 年 1 月，即特朗普首次入主白宫后，在经历了一个多月的大幅横向化之后，牛市在接近月底时又恢复了。

There are not only positive signals, but at this moment the negative ones seem to be few and not very evident. However, it is important to emphasize that the crypto markets are sometimes unpredictable, and it is not uncommon for them to end up doing the opposite of what is expected.

不仅有积极的信号，目前负面的信号似乎也很少，而且不是很明显。然而，需要强调的是，加密货币市场有时是不可预测的，并且最终做出与预期相反的事情并不少见。