在2025年購買比特幣（BTC）令牌是一個壞主意：專家分析師透露

隨著比特幣的交易約為100,000美元，其餘的加密貨幣市場則沿其方向沿著其方向而言，購買比特幣並保持潛在收益似乎是合乎邏輯的。但是，並不是每個人都持這種觀點。

With Bitcoin trading at around $100,000 and the rest of the crypto market following in its direction, it could logically seem like a good time to buy Bitcoin and hold for potential gains. However, not everyone holds this view.

隨著比特幣的交易價格約為100,000美元，其餘的加密貨幣市場沿其方向沿著邏輯上來說，這似乎是購買比特幣並保持潛在收益的好時機。但是，並不是每個人都持這種觀點。

Lark Davis, an expert analyst on YouTube with more than 600,000 subscribers, thinks it is a bad idea to buy Bitcoin for profit in 2025 due to some factors.

YouTube專家分析師Lark Davis擁有超過600,000個訂戶，他認為由於某些因素，在2025年購買比特幣是一個壞主意。

Understanding the Market Cycle

了解市場週期

Davis mentioned that Bitcoin comprises half of his crypto portfolio, and despite his strong belief in Bitcoin’s long-term potential, he emphasizes that even the “king of coins” follows some cyclical patterns.

戴維斯（Davis）提到比特幣包括他加密貨幣投資組合的一半，儘管他對比特幣長期潛力的堅信，但他強調，即使是“硬幣之王”也遵循了一些週期性的模式。

“The cryptocurrency market moves in pretty brutal cycles,” Davis explains, noting that these patterns have remained relatively consistent over the years. The cycle typically begins with a recovery year where smart money enters at low prices, followed by a bull market uptrend in the second year.

戴維斯解釋說：“加密貨幣市場以非常殘酷的周期發展。該週期通常始於恢復年度，即智能資金以低價進入，然後在第二年進行牛市上升趨勢。

The third year, which is 2025, usually marks the market peak before leading into a bearish fourth year characterized by significant price crashes.

第三年是2025年，通常標誌著市場的峰值，然後進入看跌的第四年，其特徵是價格崩潰。

The Risk of Late Entry

遲到的風險

According to Davis, investors considering Bitcoin purchases around the $100,000 mark in 2025 should proceed with caution. He points out that Bitcoin has already seen a 500% increase from its November 2022 bottom. This suggests that latecomers might be entering during the market’s euphoric phase.

根據戴維斯的說法，考慮到2025年$ 100,000的比特幣購買的投資者應謹慎行事。他指出，比特幣與2022年11月的底部相比已經增加了500％。這表明後來者可能會在市場的欣喜階段進入。

The experienced analyst warns that the market’s volatility can be particularly treacherous during these later stages. “The closer we get to the peak, the higher the risk becomes,” Davis cautions, explaining that short-term investors at this stage might face minimal gains with substantial downside risk.

經驗豐富的分析師警告說，在這些階段，市場的波動可能會特別危險。戴維斯警告說：“我們越接近峰值，風險就越高。”他解釋說，在此階段的短期投資者可能面臨最小的下行風險。

The Reality of Diminishing Returns

回報減少的現實

One of the most compelling arguments Davis presents involves Bitcoin’s historical pattern of diminishing returns. He illustrates this through Bitcoin’s previous cycles:

戴維斯（Davis）提出的最引人注目的論點之一是比特幣的歷史降低迴報模式。他通過比特幣以前的周期說明了這一點：

This pattern suggests that while Bitcoin remains a strong long-term investment, the potential returns in 2025 might be significantly lower than in previous cycles. Davis estimates that best-case scenarios might offer 100% to 150% returns, a far cry from the astronomical gains seen in earlier years.

這種模式表明，儘管比特幣仍然是一項強大的長期投資，但2025年的潛在回報可能明顯低於以前的周期。戴維斯估計，最佳情況可能會提供100％至150％的回報，這與早期的天文學收益相去甚遠。

A Shift in Investment Strategy

投資策略的轉變

Davis makes an important distinction between Bitcoin as a store of value and as a means to generate wealth. While he maintains that Bitcoin remains an excellent hedge against fiat currency, he suggests that investors seeking substantial returns in 2025 might want to explore alternatives.

戴維斯（Davis）將比特幣作為價值存儲和產生財富的手段做出了重要的區別。儘管他堅持認為比特幣仍然是針對法定貨幣的極好的對沖，但他建議在2025年尋求大量回報的投資者可能希望探索替代方案。

The analyst points to the potential of select altcoins during the latter stages of the market cycle. However, he cautions that careful selection is crucial, as most alternative cryptocurrencies eventually become worthless. Davis specifically mentions emerging blockchains and certain trending tokens as potentially offering higher percentage gains during the market’s euphoric phase.

分析師指出，在市場週期的後期階段，精選山寨幣的潛力。但是，他警告說，仔細選擇至關重要，因為大多數替代加密貨幣最終變得毫無價值。戴維斯（Davis）特別提到新興區塊鍊和某些趨勢令牌可能會在市場上欣喜若狂的階段提供更高的百分比增長。

Long-term Perspective Required

需要長期觀點

In his concluding remarks, Davis emphasizes that Bitcoin’s strength lies in its long-term potential. “Bitcoin isn’t a ‘get rich quick’ scheme—it’s a ‘don’t go broke slowly’ scheme,” he states, highlighting the importance of extending one’s investment horizon from months to years.

戴維斯（Davis）在總結的講話中強調，比特幣的實力在於其長期潛力。他說：“比特幣不是一個'賺錢的''計劃，而是'不要慢慢破產'計劃。”

The cryptocurrency expert advises that those determined to invest in Bitcoin during 2025 should adopt a long-term mindset and be prepared for potential market downturns. Rather than trying to time the market perfectly, Davis suggests using any subsequent bear market as an opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin at discounted prices.

加密貨幣專家建議，那些決心在2025年投資比特幣的人應採取長期思維方式，並為潛在的市場低迷做好準備。戴維斯（Davis）並沒有嘗試完美地安裝市場，而是建議以折扣價累積比特幣的機會。