在2025年购买比特币（BTC）令牌是一个坏主意：专家分析师透露

随着比特币的交易约为100,000美元，其余的加密货币市场则沿其方向沿着其方向而言，购买比特币并保持潜在收益似乎是合乎逻辑的。但是，并不是每个人都持这种观点。

With Bitcoin trading at around $100,000 and the rest of the crypto market following in its direction, it could logically seem like a good time to buy Bitcoin and hold for potential gains. However, not everyone holds this view.

随着比特币的交易价格约为100,000美元，其余的加密货币市场沿其方向沿着逻辑上来说，这似乎是购买比特币并保持潜在收益的好时机。但是，并不是每个人都持这种观点。

Lark Davis, an expert analyst on YouTube with more than 600,000 subscribers, thinks it is a bad idea to buy Bitcoin for profit in 2025 due to some factors.

YouTube专家分析师Lark Davis拥有超过600,000个订户，他认为由于某些因素，在2025年购买比特币是一个坏主意。

Understanding the Market Cycle

了解市场周期

Davis mentioned that Bitcoin comprises half of his crypto portfolio, and despite his strong belief in Bitcoin’s long-term potential, he emphasizes that even the “king of coins” follows some cyclical patterns.

戴维斯（Davis）提到比特币包括他加密货币投资组合的一半，尽管他对比特币长期潜力的坚信，但他强调，即使是“硬币之王”也遵循了一些周期性的模式。

“The cryptocurrency market moves in pretty brutal cycles,” Davis explains, noting that these patterns have remained relatively consistent over the years. The cycle typically begins with a recovery year where smart money enters at low prices, followed by a bull market uptrend in the second year.

戴维斯解释说：“加密货币市场以非常残酷的周期发展。该周期通常始于恢复年度，即智能资金以低价进入，然后在第二年进行牛市上升趋势。

The third year, which is 2025, usually marks the market peak before leading into a bearish fourth year characterized by significant price crashes.

第三年是2025年，通常标志着市场的峰值，然后进入看跌的第四年，其特征是价格崩溃。

The Risk of Late Entry

迟到的风险

According to Davis, investors considering Bitcoin purchases around the $100,000 mark in 2025 should proceed with caution. He points out that Bitcoin has already seen a 500% increase from its November 2022 bottom. This suggests that latecomers might be entering during the market’s euphoric phase.

根据戴维斯的说法，考虑到2025年$ 100,000的比特币购买的投资者应谨慎行事。他指出，比特币与2022年11月的底部相比已经增加了500％。这表明后来者可能会在市场的欣喜阶段进入。

The experienced analyst warns that the market’s volatility can be particularly treacherous during these later stages. “The closer we get to the peak, the higher the risk becomes,” Davis cautions, explaining that short-term investors at this stage might face minimal gains with substantial downside risk.

经验丰富的分析师警告说，在这些阶段，市场的波动可能会特别危险。戴维斯警告说：“我们越接近峰值，风险就越高。”他解释说，在此阶段的短期投资者可能面临最小的下行风险。

The Reality of Diminishing Returns

回报减少的现实

One of the most compelling arguments Davis presents involves Bitcoin’s historical pattern of diminishing returns. He illustrates this through Bitcoin’s previous cycles:

戴维斯（Davis）提出的最引人注目的论点之一是比特币的历史降低回报模式。他通过比特币以前的周期说明了这一点：

This pattern suggests that while Bitcoin remains a strong long-term investment, the potential returns in 2025 might be significantly lower than in previous cycles. Davis estimates that best-case scenarios might offer 100% to 150% returns, a far cry from the astronomical gains seen in earlier years.

这种模式表明，尽管比特币仍然是一项强大的长期投资，但2025年的潜在回报可能明显低于以前的周期。戴维斯估计，最佳情况可能会提供100％至150％的回报，这与早期的天文学收益相去甚远。

A Shift in Investment Strategy

投资策略的转变

Davis makes an important distinction between Bitcoin as a store of value and as a means to generate wealth. While he maintains that Bitcoin remains an excellent hedge against fiat currency, he suggests that investors seeking substantial returns in 2025 might want to explore alternatives.

戴维斯（Davis）将比特币作为价值存储和产生财富的手段做出了重要的区别。尽管他坚持认为比特币仍然是针对法定货币的极好的对冲，但他建议在2025年寻求大量回报的投资者可能希望探索替代方案。

The analyst points to the potential of select altcoins during the latter stages of the market cycle. However, he cautions that careful selection is crucial, as most alternative cryptocurrencies eventually become worthless. Davis specifically mentions emerging blockchains and certain trending tokens as potentially offering higher percentage gains during the market’s euphoric phase.

分析师指出，在市场周期的后期阶段，精选山寨币的潜力。但是，他警告说，仔细选择至关重要，因为大多数替代加密货币最终变得毫无价值。戴维斯（Davis）特别提到新兴区块链和某些趋势令牌可能会在市场上欣喜若狂的阶段提供更高的百分比增长。

Long-term Perspective Required

需要长期观点

In his concluding remarks, Davis emphasizes that Bitcoin’s strength lies in its long-term potential. “Bitcoin isn’t a ‘get rich quick’ scheme—it’s a ‘don’t go broke slowly’ scheme,” he states, highlighting the importance of extending one’s investment horizon from months to years.

戴维斯（Davis）在总结的讲话中强调，比特币的实力在于其长期潜力。他说：“比特币不是一个'赚钱的''计划，而是'不要慢慢破产'计划。”

The cryptocurrency expert advises that those determined to invest in Bitcoin during 2025 should adopt a long-term mindset and be prepared for potential market downturns. Rather than trying to time the market perfectly, Davis suggests using any subsequent bear market as an opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin at discounted prices.

加密货币专家建议，那些决心在2025年投资比特币的人应采取长期思维方式，并为潜在的市场低迷做好准备。戴维斯（Davis）并没有尝试完美地安装市场，而是建议以折扣价累积比特币的机会。