2024 年多頭：股票、黃金和比特幣在謹慎樂觀中飆升

2024 年第一季股市、黃金和加密貨幣的大幅上漲引發了人們對永續性的擔憂。分析師將標準普爾 500 指數的強勢歸因於廣泛的參與和週期性的領先，其中人工智慧相關股票處於領先地位。在聯準會降息預期下，黃金受惠於美元疲軟，觸及歷史新高。在現貨比特幣獲得批准後，比特幣繼續上漲，突破 7 萬美元。專家預期漲勢將持續，理由是債券殖利率和通膨有所緩解，同時強調聯準會行動、經濟數據和獲利表現對市場軌跡的影響。

Market Rally 2024: A Bullish Surge Amidst Caution

2024 年市場反彈：謹慎中看漲

The first quarter of 2024 has witnessed a remarkable surge in asset values, leaving investors grappling with the sustainability of this uptrend. Equity markets, gold, and Bitcoin have all experienced significant gains, raising questions about the risks and opportunities ahead.

2024 年第一季資產價值顯著飆升，讓投資者努力應對這一上升趨勢的可持續性。股票市場、黃金和比特幣都經歷了大幅上漲，引發了人們對未來風險和機會的質疑。

Equity Market: From Shaky Start to Strong Surge

股市：從搖搖欲墜到強勁飆升

The equity market commenced the year with skepticism, lingering concerns about the longevity of 2023's gains. However, the momentum from last year carried through, propelling the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average to record highs.

新年伊始，股市就充滿了懷疑，人們對 2023 年漲幅能否持續的擔憂揮之不去。然而，去年的勢頭延續了下來，推動標準普爾 500 指數和道瓊工業指數創下歷史新高。

The tech sector, buoyed by the AI boom, led the charge. Companies like Nvidia and Microsoft surged on the promise of AI innovation. However, the Nasdaq Composite fell short of its record peak due to valuation concerns and profit-taking near the quarter's end.

在人工智慧熱潮的推動下，科技業引領潮流。英偉達和微軟等公司因人工智慧創新的承諾而飆升。然而，由於估值擔憂和接近季度末的獲利回吐，納斯達克綜合指數未能創下歷史新高。

Notably, the rally has been characterized by broader participation beyond the tech giants. Industrials, financials, and materials sectors have exhibited strong relative strength. This diversification has supported the S&P 500's uptrend, reducing reliance on a few mega-caps.

值得注意的是，這次漲勢的特點是科技巨頭之外的參與者更廣。工業、金融和材料板塊表現出強勁的相對實力。這種多元化支持了標準普爾 500 指數的上漲趨勢，減少了對少數大型股的依賴。

Among the top-performing S&P 500 stocks this quarter were semiconductor companies, reflecting the sector's AI-driven momentum. However, Tesla and Boeing underperformed amidst negative headlines and supply chain challenges.

本季表現最好的標準普爾 500 指數股票中有半導體公司，反映了該行業由人工智慧驅動的勢頭。然而，由於負面新聞和供應鏈挑戰，特斯拉和波音表現不佳。

Gold's Dazzling Run

黃金的耀眼奔跑

Gold has benefited from a weaker US dollar, which is valued inversely to the precious metal. Expectations of Fed rate cuts have weighed on the dollar, boosting gold's appeal as a safe haven. The yellow metal ended the quarter at a record high of $2,254.80.

黃金受益於美元疲軟，美元的價值與貴金屬成反比。聯準會降息的預期打壓了美元，提升了黃金作為避險資產的吸引力。該黃色金屬本季收於 2,254.80 美元的歷史新高。

Bitcoin Builds on Gains

比特幣建立在收益之上

The cryptocurrency market, which saw a rally in late 2023, has continued to surge in 2024. Bitcoin, the apex crypto, has pushed higher despite some volatility, amassing a market cap of over $1 trillion. The approval of spot Bitcoin trading has provided further impetus to the rally.

加密貨幣市場在 2023 年底反彈，並在 2024 年繼續飆升。儘管存在一些波動，頂級加密貨幣比特幣仍然走高，市值超過 1 兆美元。比特幣現貨交易的批准為漲勢提供了進一步的動力。

Comparative Returns: Bitcoin Leads the Race

比較回報：比特幣領先

A comparison of returns from the S&P 500, gold, and Bitcoin reveals Bitcoin as the best performer. A $1,000 investment in each asset class at the start of the year would have yielded the following returns:

對標準普爾 500 指數、黃金和比特幣的回報進行比較後發現，比特幣是表現最好的。年初對每種資產類別投資 1,000 美元將產生以下回報：

• S&P 500: $1,103.90 (10.39% return)
• Gold: $1,080.40 (8.04% return)
• Bitcoin: $1,673.84 (67.38% return)

Market Outlook: Bullish Yet Cautious

標準普爾 500 指數：1,103.90 美元（回報率 10.39%）黃金：1,080.40 美元（回報率 8.04%）比特幣：1,673.84 美元（回報率 67.38%）市場前景：看漲但謹慎

Analysts remain optimistic about the rally extending through the rest of the year. However, concerns linger over inflation and the Federal Reserve's actions.

分析師對今年剩餘時間的漲勢仍持樂觀態度。然而，人們對通膨和聯準會行動的擔憂仍然存在。

Incoming inflation data, economic growth figures, and Treasury bond yields will be closely monitored as key market drivers. The Fed's stance on rate cuts will play a significant role in shaping market sentiment.

即將公佈的通膨數據、經濟成長數據和國債殖利率將作為關鍵的市場驅動因素受到密切關注。聯準會的降息立場將對塑造市場情緒發揮重要作用。

Concentration risk remains a concern, as any faltering on the earnings front could jeopardize the rally. Experts emphasize the need for earnings estimate revisions to support further growth.

集中風險仍然令人擔憂，因為獲利方面的任何動搖都可能危及漲勢。專家強調需要修改獲利預測以支持進一步成長。

Stock and Crypto Picks: AI Leaders and Bitcoin

股票和加密貨幣精選：人工智慧領導者和比特幣

Analysts are bullish on US large caps, AI stocks, and Bitcoin. Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Arista Networks, and Super Micro are seen as leading AI stocks with reasonable valuations.

分析師看好美國大盤股、人工智慧股票和比特幣。 Nvidia、微軟、Meta Platforms、Arista Networks 和 Super Micro 被視為估值合理的領先人工智慧股票。

Bitcoin is expected to rally past $100,000 by year-end, with the upcoming halving event serving as a potential catalyst. However, the caveat remains a potential rise in bond yields above 4.40%.

預計比特幣到年底將突破 10 萬美元，即將到來的減半事件將成為潛在的催化劑。然而，需要注意的是，債券殖利率可能會升至 4.40% 以上。

Other stock picks include cloud security companies, AI names, homebuilders, consumer companies with a direct model, and oil refiners.

其他精選股票包括雲端安全公司、人工智慧公司、住宅建築商、具有直接模式的消費公司和煉油商。