Boj速率遠足 - 市場影響

BOJ將短期利率提高到0.5％，是17年來最高的。此舉標誌著對日本經濟增長，穩定通貨膨脹和工資上升的信心。

The Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) latest interest rate hike has sparked concerns about a potential market downturn, especially in the crypto market. Historically, crypto markets have experienced sharp sell-offs following BOJ rate increases.

日本銀行（BOJ）的最新利率加息引發了人們對潛在市場衰退的擔憂，尤其是在加密貨幣市場上。從歷史上看，加密貨幣市場隨著BoJ率提高而經歷了急劇的拋售。

Benjamin Cowen, founder and CEO of ITC Crypto, highlighted this trend in a recent tweet.

ITC Crypto的創始人兼首席執行官本傑明·科恩（Benjamin Cowen）在最近的一條推文中強調了這一趨勢。

“Raise rates in March -> April capitulation Raised rates in July -> August capitulation Raised rates in January -> February capitulation.”

“ 3月的加薪率 - > 4月的投降在7月 - > 8月投降在1月 - > 2月投降。”

The BOJ raised short-term interest rates to 0.5%, the highest in 17 years. This move expresses confidence in Japan’s economic growth, with stable inflation and rising wages. However, data over the past few years suggests that these hikes may lead to crypto market sell-offs about a month later.

Boj將短期利率提高到0.5％，是17年來最高的。這一舉動表達了對日本經濟增長的信心，穩定的通貨膨脹和工資上升。但是，在過去的幾年中，數據表明這些遠足可能會導致一個月後的加密貨幣市場拋售。

Earlier, Cowen pointed out in his analysis that Ethereum experienced sell-off events in April and August, which coincided with previous BOJ hikes. With this pattern in mind, investors are keeping an eye on the market for another potential downturn following the latest rate increase.

早些時候，Cowen在他的分析中指出，以太坊在4月和8月經歷了拋售活動，這與先前的Boj Hikes相吻合。考慮到這種模式，投資者一直在關注市場，以提高最新利率之後的另一個潛在低迷。

A survey of economists showed that 56% expect the BOJ to raise rates again by July, probably to 0.75%. Some analysts predict that rates could reach 1.5% over the next two years. These hikes may cause increased volatility in both traditional financial markets and cryptocurrencies. As Japan’s central bank relaxes its long-standing monetary policies, global markets, including crypto, must prepare for possible turbulence.

對經濟學家的一項調查顯示，有56％的人預計棚屋將在7月之前再次提高利率，可能達到0.75％。一些分析師預測，在未來兩年中，利率可能會達到1.5％。這些遠足可能會導致傳統金融市場和加密貨幣的波動增加。隨著日本中央銀行放鬆其長期以來的貨幣政策，包括加密在內的全球市場必須為可能的動盪做準備。

Ethereum’s Vulnerability, Federal Reserve, and Possible Rebound

以太坊的脆弱性，美聯儲和可能的反彈

Ethereum is especially sensitive to macroeconomic developments, and analysts are watching the Federal Reserve’s next move. If the Fed maintains its stance against quantitative easing (QE), Cowen suggests that the Ethereum price against the U.S. dollar could drop further.

以太坊對宏觀經濟發展特別敏感，分析師正在觀看美聯儲的下一步行動。如果美聯儲對量化寬鬆（QE）保持立場，Cowen認為違反美元的以太坊價格可能會進一步下降。

Such a drop might eventually force the Fed to change course, potentially sparking a strong recovery in March 2025. Historically, ETH/BTC ratios have increased when QE starts, and a similar pattern could reoccur if the Fed reinstates money printing.

這樣的下降最終可能會迫使美聯儲改變路線，並有可能在2025年3月引發強大的恢復。從歷史上看，ETH/BTC的比率在開始時增加了，如果美聯儲恢復了貨幣印刷，則可能會再次出現類似的模式。

Past the BOJ’s influence, Ethereum has struggled to break past the $4,000 level, which continues to be a psychological barrier for investors. If Ethereum does face another downturn in February or March, it could warrant renewed liquidity injections, ultimately benefiting the ETH/BTC pair. Past cycles also show that Ethereum’s lowest points have coincided with the start of QE, increasing the chances of a rebound.

超越棚屋的影響力，以太坊一直在努力超越4,000美元的水平，這仍然是投資者的心理障礙。如果以太坊在2月或3月確實面臨著另一場衰退，則可以保證更新的流動性注射，最終使ETH/BTC對受益。過去的周期還表明，以太坊的最低點與量化寬鬆的開始相吻合，增加了反彈的機會。