Boj速率远足 - 市场影响

BOJ将短期利率提高到0.5％，是17年来最高的。此举标志着对日本经济增长，稳定通货膨胀和工资上升的信心。

The Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) latest interest rate hike has sparked concerns about a potential market downturn, especially in the crypto market. Historically, crypto markets have experienced sharp sell-offs following BOJ rate increases.

日本银行（BOJ）的最新利率加息引发了人们对潜在市场衰退的担忧，尤其是在加密货币市场上。从历史上看，加密货币市场随着BoJ率提高而经历了急剧的抛售。

Benjamin Cowen, founder and CEO of ITC Crypto, highlighted this trend in a recent tweet.

ITC Crypto的创始人兼首席执行官本杰明·科恩（Benjamin Cowen）在最近的一条推文中强调了这一趋势。

“Raise rates in March -> April capitulation Raised rates in July -> August capitulation Raised rates in January -> February capitulation.”

“ 3月的加薪率 - > 4月的投降在7月 - > 8月投降在1月 - > 2月投降。”

The BOJ raised short-term interest rates to 0.5%, the highest in 17 years. This move expresses confidence in Japan’s economic growth, with stable inflation and rising wages. However, data over the past few years suggests that these hikes may lead to crypto market sell-offs about a month later.

Boj将短期利率提高到0.5％，是17年来最高的。这一举动表达了对日本经济增长的信心，稳定的通货膨胀和工资上升。但是，在过去的几年中，数据表明这些远足可能会导致一个月后的加密货币市场抛售。

Earlier, Cowen pointed out in his analysis that Ethereum experienced sell-off events in April and August, which coincided with previous BOJ hikes. With this pattern in mind, investors are keeping an eye on the market for another potential downturn following the latest rate increase.

早些时候，Cowen在他的分析中指出，以太坊在4月和8月经历了抛售活动，这与先前的Boj Hikes相吻合。考虑到这种模式，投资者一直在关注市场，以提高最新利率之后的另一个潜在低迷。

A survey of economists showed that 56% expect the BOJ to raise rates again by July, probably to 0.75%. Some analysts predict that rates could reach 1.5% over the next two years. These hikes may cause increased volatility in both traditional financial markets and cryptocurrencies. As Japan’s central bank relaxes its long-standing monetary policies, global markets, including crypto, must prepare for possible turbulence.

对经济学家的一项调查显示，有56％的人预计棚屋将在7月之前再次提高利率，可能达到0.75％。一些分析师预测，在未来两年中，利率可能会达到1.5％。这些远足可能会导致传统金融市场和加密货币的波动增加。随着日本中央银行放松其长期以来的货币政策，包括加密在内的全球市场必须为可能的动荡做准备。

Ethereum’s Vulnerability, Federal Reserve, and Possible Rebound

以太坊的脆弱性，美联储和可能的反弹

Ethereum is especially sensitive to macroeconomic developments, and analysts are watching the Federal Reserve’s next move. If the Fed maintains its stance against quantitative easing (QE), Cowen suggests that the Ethereum price against the U.S. dollar could drop further.

以太坊对宏观经济发展特别敏感，分析师正在观看美联储的下一步行动。如果美联储对量化宽松（QE）保持立场，Cowen认为违反美元的以太坊价格可能会进一步下降。

Such a drop might eventually force the Fed to change course, potentially sparking a strong recovery in March 2025. Historically, ETH/BTC ratios have increased when QE starts, and a similar pattern could reoccur if the Fed reinstates money printing.

这样的下降最终可能会迫使美联储改变路线，并有可能在2025年3月引发强大的恢复。从历史上看，ETH/BTC的比率在开始时增加了，如果美联储恢复了货币印刷，则可能会再次出现类似的模式。

Past the BOJ’s influence, Ethereum has struggled to break past the $4,000 level, which continues to be a psychological barrier for investors. If Ethereum does face another downturn in February or March, it could warrant renewed liquidity injections, ultimately benefiting the ETH/BTC pair. Past cycles also show that Ethereum’s lowest points have coincided with the start of QE, increasing the chances of a rebound.

超越棚屋的影响力，以太坊一直在努力超越4,000美元的水平，这仍然是投资者的心理障碍。如果以太坊在2月或3月确实面临着另一场衰退，则可以保证更新的流动性注射，最终使ETH/BTC对受益。过去的周期还表明，以太坊的最低点与量化宽松的开始相吻合，增加了反弹的机会。