彭博交易所交易基金（ETF）的分析師傾斜了90％的機會，即美國證券監管機構將在年底之前批准萊特克·ETF。

彭博社的詹姆斯·塞夫特（James Seyffart）和埃里克·巴爾庫納斯（Eric Balchunas）看到其在2025年獲得批准的機會高於目前建議的其他ETF

Bloomberg exchange-traded fund (ETF) analysts have tipped a 90% chance that the US securities regulator will approve a spot Litecoin ETF before the end of the year.

彭博交易所交易基金（ETF）的分析師傾斜了90％的機會，即美國證券監管機構將在年底之前批准萊特克·ETF。

Bloomberg’s James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas see its chances of being approved in 2025 as higher than other ETFs currently proposed, including a spot XRP Posting on Tech, the pair said that Litecoin’s path toward SEC approval may be the most straightforward as S-1 and 19b-4 forms have already been filed and acknowledged, while the SEC also likely views it as a commodity.

彭博社的James Seyffart和Eric Balchunas看到其在2025年獲得批准的機會高於目前提議的其他ETF，其中包括有關Tech的Spot XRP帖子，兩人表示，Litecoin批准SEC批准的道路可能是S-1和19B最直接的道路-4表格已經提交和承認，而SEC也可能將其視為商品。

The race for more crypto ETFs follows strong demand from the spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs.

更多的加密ETF競賽遵循了比特幣和以太ETF的強勁需求。

While Seyffart doesn’t think a Litecoin ETF would attract that much demand, he said it could still be worthwhile for fund companies with as little as $50 million in some cases.

儘管Seyffart認為Litecoin ETF不會吸引這麼多的需求，但他說，對於某些情況下，資金公司仍然值得，這仍然是值得的。

“They don’t have to hit it out of the park on a flows basis to be worthwhile from an issuer perspective,” Seyffart told Cointelegraph.

Seyffart告訴Cointelegraph：“從發行人的角度來看，他們不必以流量從公園裡擊出公園。”

The final deadline for the SEC to decide on the Litecoin, Solana, XRP and Dogecoin ETFs is between Oct. 2 and Oct. 18, Seyffart’s chart shows. A Litecoin ETF could launch before then, Seyffart said.

SEYFFART的圖表顯示，SEC決定Litecoin，Solana，XRP和Dogecoin ETF的最後截止日期為10月2日至10月18日。 Seyffart說，Litecoin ETF可以在此之前推出。

Seyffart and Balchunas also acknowledged that ETFs for Hedera Hashgraph, Stacks and Near Protocol are also expected to be filed by the end of January.

Seyffart和Balchunas還承認，預計Hedera Hashgraph，Hedera Hashgraph，堆棧和近協議的ETF也將在1月底之前提交。

Expect to see more crypto ETF filings

期望看到更多的加密ETF文件

Seyffart said more crypto ETFs could be proposed, too, predicting US-based ETF issuers to follow a “spaghetti cannon approach.”

Seyffart表示，也可以提出更多的加密ETF，預測總部位於美國的ETF發行人遵循“意大利麵條大砲方法”。

“Issuers will try to launch many many different things and see what sticks,” Seyffart said.

Seyffart說：“發行人將嘗試發射許多不同的東西，並了解什麼棍子。”

Balchunas noted that the odds for all of these crypto ETFs — except Litecoin — were below 5% before US President Donald Trump won the US election on Nov. 5, 2024.

Balchunas指出，除了Litecoin以外，所有這些加密ETF的機率低於5％以下，唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）於2024年11月5日贏得美國大選。

Regulatory work still needs to be done with XRP, Solana

XRP，Solana仍需要完成監管工作

The approval odds for a Solana ETF are currently at 30%, while XRP is at 10%, according to Seyffart and Balchunas. Seyffart said that an XRP ETF approval would hinge on the SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple.

根據Seyffart和Balchunas的數據，Solana ETF的批准賠率目前為30％，而XRP為10％。 Seyffart表示，XRP ETF批准將取決於SEC針對Ripple的訴訟。

Source: James Seyffart

資料來源：James Seyffart

Ripple scored a partial victory in August 2023, when it was ruled that XRP isn’t a security when sold on secondary markets — however, the SEC appealed this court decision, claiming that Ripple breached securities laws when it sold XRP to retail investors.

Ripple在2023年8月獲得了部分勝利，當時裁定在二級市場上出售XRP並不是安全性- 但是，SEC對這一法院的裁決提出上訴，聲稱Ripple在將XRP出售給Retail Investers時違反了證券法。

However, these actions were taken under the Gary Gensler-led SEC, and Ripple is now hoping that the new SEC leadership, currently led by acting chair Mark Uyeda, will withdraw the enforcement case.

但是，這些行動是在加里·蓋斯勒（Gary Gensler）領導的SEC的領導下採取的，Ripple現在希望由代理主席馬克·烏耶達（Mark Uyeda）領導的新SEC領導人將撤回執法案。

The security status of Solana will also need to be resolved before the SEC can analyze Solana under a “commodities ETF wrapper,” Seyffart said last month.

Seyffart上個月表示，在SEC可以在“商品ETF包裝器”下分析SOLANA之前，SOLANA的安全狀況還需要解決。