彭博交易所交易基金（ETF）的分析师倾斜了90％的机会，即美国证券监管机构将在年底之前批准莱特克·ETF。

彭博社的詹姆斯·塞夫特（James Seyffart）和埃里克·巴尔库纳斯（Eric Balchunas）看到其在2025年获得批准的机会高于目前建议的其他ETF

Bloomberg exchange-traded fund (ETF) analysts have tipped a 90% chance that the US securities regulator will approve a spot Litecoin ETF before the end of the year.

彭博交易所交易基金（ETF）的分析师倾斜了90％的机会，即美国证券监管机构将在年底之前批准莱特克·ETF。

Bloomberg’s James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas see its chances of being approved in 2025 as higher than other ETFs currently proposed, including a spot XRP Posting on Tech, the pair said that Litecoin’s path toward SEC approval may be the most straightforward as S-1 and 19b-4 forms have already been filed and acknowledged, while the SEC also likely views it as a commodity.

彭博社的James Seyffart和Eric Balchunas看到其在2025年获得批准的机会高于目前提议的其他ETF，其中包括有关Tech的Spot XRP帖子，两人表示，Litecoin批准SEC批准的道路可能是S-1和19B最直接的道路-4表格已经提交和承认，而SEC也可能将其视为商品。

The race for more crypto ETFs follows strong demand from the spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs.

更多的加密ETF竞赛遵循了比特币和以太ETF的强劲需求。

While Seyffart doesn’t think a Litecoin ETF would attract that much demand, he said it could still be worthwhile for fund companies with as little as $50 million in some cases.

尽管Seyffart认为Litecoin ETF不会吸引这么多的需求，但他说，对于某些情况下，资金公司仍然值得，这仍然是值得的。

“They don’t have to hit it out of the park on a flows basis to be worthwhile from an issuer perspective,” Seyffart told Cointelegraph.

Seyffart告诉Cointelegraph：“从发行人的角度来看，他们不必以流量从公园里击出公园。”

The final deadline for the SEC to decide on the Litecoin, Solana, XRP and Dogecoin ETFs is between Oct. 2 and Oct. 18, Seyffart’s chart shows. A Litecoin ETF could launch before then, Seyffart said.

SEYFFART的图表显示，SEC决定Litecoin，Solana，XRP和Dogecoin ETF的最后截止日期为10月2日至10月18日。 Seyffart说，Litecoin ETF可以在此之前推出。

Seyffart and Balchunas also acknowledged that ETFs for Hedera Hashgraph, Stacks and Near Protocol are also expected to be filed by the end of January.

Seyffart和Balchunas还承认，预计Hedera Hashgraph，Hedera Hashgraph，堆栈和近协议的ETF也将在1月底之前提交。

Expect to see more crypto ETF filings

期望看到更多的加密ETF文件

Seyffart said more crypto ETFs could be proposed, too, predicting US-based ETF issuers to follow a “spaghetti cannon approach.”

Seyffart表示，也可以提出更多的加密ETF，预测总部位于美国的ETF发行人遵循“意大利面条大炮方法”。

“Issuers will try to launch many many different things and see what sticks,” Seyffart said.

Seyffart说：“发行人将尝试发射许多不同的东西，并了解什么棍子。”

Balchunas noted that the odds for all of these crypto ETFs — except Litecoin — were below 5% before US President Donald Trump won the US election on Nov. 5, 2024.

Balchunas指出，除了Litecoin以外，所有这些加密ETF的几率低于5％以下，唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）于2024年11月5日赢得美国大选。

Regulatory work still needs to be done with XRP, Solana

XRP，Solana仍需要完成监管工作

The approval odds for a Solana ETF are currently at 30%, while XRP is at 10%, according to Seyffart and Balchunas. Seyffart said that an XRP ETF approval would hinge on the SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple.

根据Seyffart和Balchunas的数据，Solana ETF的批准赔率目前为30％，而XRP为10％。 Seyffart表示，XRP ETF批准将取决于SEC针对Ripple的诉讼。

Source: James Seyffart

资料来源：James Seyffart

Ripple scored a partial victory in August 2023, when it was ruled that XRP isn’t a security when sold on secondary markets — however, the SEC appealed this court decision, claiming that Ripple breached securities laws when it sold XRP to retail investors.

Ripple在2023年8月获得了部分胜利，当时裁定在二级市场上出售XRP并不是安全性 - 但是，SEC对这一法院的裁决提出上诉，声称Ripple在将XRP出售给Retail Investers时违反了证券法。

However, these actions were taken under the Gary Gensler-led SEC, and Ripple is now hoping that the new SEC leadership, currently led by acting chair Mark Uyeda, will withdraw the enforcement case.

但是，这些行动是在加里·盖斯勒（Gary Gensler）领导的SEC的领导下采取的，Ripple现在希望由代理主席马克·乌耶达（Mark Uyeda）领导的新SEC领导人将撤回执法案。

The security status of Solana will also need to be resolved before the SEC can analyze Solana under a “commodities ETF wrapper,” Seyffart said last month.

Seyffart上个月表示，在SEC以“商品ETF包装器”以“ SEC”分析Solana之前，SOLANA的安全状况还需要解决。