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加密貨幣新聞文章

貝萊德BTC策略負責人羅比·米奇尼克(Robbie Mitchnick

2025/03/20 13:00

在接受Yahoo Finance的採訪時,BlackRock的全球數字資產負責人Robbie Mitchnick添加了比特幣最近的停滯,並分享了為什麼他認為機構需求可能比其價格暗示的要強。

貝萊德BTC策略負責人羅比·米奇尼克(Robbie Mitchnick

In an interview with Yahoo Finance, Robbie Mitchnick, Global Head of Digital Assets at BlackRock (NYSE:BLK), discussed Bitcoin's recent stagnation and why he believes institutional demand may be stronger than its price implies.

在接受Yahoo Finance的採訪時,BlackRock(NYSE:BLK)數字資產的全球數字資產負責人Robbie Mitchnick討論了比特幣最近的停滯,以及為什麼他認為機構需求可能比其價格暗示的要強。

Despite significant hopes pinned on regulatory developments and a “crypto-friendly” turn at the White House, Bitcoin has spent the early months of 2025 hovering around the mid-$80,000 range. This has prompted questions about what catalysts might drive the next price rally.

儘管有巨大的希望固定在監管發展和白宮“加密友好”的轉變上,但比特幣花了2025年的早期徘徊在80,000美元的中期範圍內。這引發了有關哪些催化劑可能推動下一個價格集會的問題。

"Bitcoin is still up, let’s call it 15% or so since the beginning of November. A lot of that move was driven by a combination of interest from institutions and optimism around the potential for government endorsement under the Trump administration," Mitchnick explained.

米奇尼克解釋說:“比特幣仍在上升,我們稱其為11月初以來的15%左右。大部分此舉是由於機構對特朗普政府領導下的政府認可潛力的樂觀興趣所驅動的。”

However, he cautioned that accelerated, perhaps premature expectations of just how quickly some of these catalysts would start to arrive might have contributed to the market’s more recent price stagnation.

但是,他警告說,這是加速的,也許對這些催化劑中的某些催化劑的速度有多快的過早期望可能導致了市場最近的價格停滯。

"Many investors and traders had anticipated an immediate spike to follow the White House’s pro-crypto moves. When those gains failed to materialize, some short-term participants began unwinding positions, contributing to downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price."

“許多投資者和交易者預計會立即提出峰值,以跟隨白宮的親聯合會舉動。當這些收益未能實現時,一些短期參與者開始放鬆職位,促成了比特幣價格的下降壓力。”

BlackRock's Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have brought a new wave of institutional exposure to the crypto market, but despite this, outflows have softened to start the year.

貝萊德(Blackrock)的比特幣交易所交易資金為加密貨幣市場帶來了新的機構風險,但是儘管如此,從而開始了流出,從而開始了一年。

"2024 was pretty incredible, pretty historic on that front. 2025 to start has been more negative. We’ve seen some outflows in the category—relatively modest in the context of the overall asset base, which is close to $100 billion. And it’s mostly in the past month or so."

“ 2024年非常令人難以置信,在那一邊。2025年開始的情況更為負面。我們已經看到了類別中的一些外流 - 在整個資產基礎的背景下,依賴於近1000億美元。這主要是在過去的一個月左右的時間裡。”

He attributed this downturn to hedge funds unwinding a spot–futures arbitrage trade that had double-digit yields in 2024 but has since dipped into the single digits. These outflows, he noted, are mainly from short-term traders, rather than the more traditional "buy-and-hold" investor base.

他將這一低迷歸因於對沖基金,放棄了一個現場套利交易,該套利交易在2024年具有兩位數的收益率,但此後已降低了單位數字。他指出,這些流出主要來自短期交易者,而不是更傳統的“購買和持有”投資者基礎。

A central question raised in the interview was why Bitcoin has not acted as a safe haven—similar to gold—despite persistent economic uncertainty. While gold has rallied on investor concerns about the economy, Bitcoin has not mirrored that trajectory.

採訪中提出的一個核心問題是為什麼比特幣沒有作為避風港(類似於黃金)的避風港,儘管經濟不確定性持續不確定。儘管黃金對投資者對經濟的擔憂集會,但比特幣並沒有反映出這一軌跡。

Mitchnick suggested that this discrepancy stems from market psychology and what he called "short-term correlation spikes."

米奇尼克(Mitchnick)建議這種差異源於市場心理學和他所謂的“短期相關性尖峰”。

"Bitcoin fundamentally on a long-term basis … should be uncorrelated or even inversely correlated against certain risk factors … But now it’s been extrapolated to things that don’t really make any sense at all—tariffs, economic fears—and the market’s commentary doesn’t reflect what Bitcoin fundamentally is."

“從根本上講,比特幣長期……應該與某些危險因素不相關,甚至與某些危險因素無關……但是現在它被推斷為根本沒有任何意義的事物 - 五項稅務,經濟恐懼 - 市場的評論並沒有從根本上反映出比特幣的內容。”

He went on to emphasize Bitcoin’s unique attributes—its scarcity, decentralized nature, and existence "outside of any one country’s economic, political, or monetary system."

他繼續強調比特幣的獨特屬性 - 它的稀缺性,分散的性質和存在“在任何一個國家的經濟,政治或貨幣體系之外”。

Over the long term, Mitchnick sees these properties as justifying Bitcoin’s "digital gold" comparison, but he concedes that investor behavior often treats it as a high-volatility, "risk-on" asset in the short run.

從長遠來看,米奇尼克(Mitchnick)將這些屬性視為比特幣的“數字黃金”比較是合理的,但他承認,在短期內,投資者的行為通常將其視為高揮發性,“風險啟用”資產。

When asked about the US government’s stance—particularly in light of a Trump administration authorization for a strategic Bitcoin reserve—Mitchnick was cautious, noting that "a lot still remains to be determined on that front."

當被問及美國政府的立場 - 尤其是根據特朗普政府的戰略比特幣儲備的授權,米奇尼克很謹慎,並指出:“在這方面仍然有很多待決定。”

He emphasized that: "What we have clearly seen is a pretty emphatic signal of support and conviction in this industry and particularly in Bitcoin and Bitcoin’s uniqueness … Whether and on what timeline … that might be funded, there’s a few different sources … but it’s certainly not the only source of adoption catalyst in 2025."

他強調:“我們清楚地看到的是在這個行業,尤其​​是比特幣和比特幣的獨特性中的支持和信念的強調信號……無論是以及在什麼時間表上……可能是資助的時間表,都有一些不同的來源……但這無疑不是2025年唯一的收養催化源。”

Although speculation is building around whether the government will officially begin stockpiling Bitcoin, Mitchnick stressed that the broader institutional and wealth advisory community continues accumulating positions. These investors, in his view, remain "very excited" by current market conditions despite the recent downturn.

儘管政府是否將正式開始庫存比特幣,但米奇尼克(Mitchnick)強調,更廣泛的機構和財富諮詢社區繼續積累立場。在他看來,儘管最近經歷下滑,但這些投資者仍然對當前市場狀況感到“非常興奮”。

Mitchnick also addressed recent headwinds, including the ByBit hack that briefly dampened market sentiment. He suggested that heightened volatility can shake short-term traders out of the market, but longer-term, more sophisticated holders often see price dips as buying opportunities.

米奇尼克(Mitchnick)還談到了最近的逆風,其中包括短暫抑制市場情緒的Bybit Hack。他建議,增強的波動性可以使短期交易者從市場上振作起來,但長期,更複雜的持有人通常將價格下降視為購買機會。

"Some of them were taking chips off the table a little bit in the [$100,000] range … Now they see this correction and a lot of them view it as sort of an irrational selloff … We’re trying to bring some quantitative rigor to that as well."

“他們中的一些人在[100,000美元]的範圍內將籌碼稍微拿走了一點……現在他們看到了這種糾正,許多人認為它是一種不合理的拋售……我們也試圖對此進行一些定量的嚴格性。”

At press time, BTC traded at $84,197.

發稿時,BTC的交易價格為84,197美元。

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