比特幣人開始對經濟衰退的長期影響開始看漲可能還為時過早

蒂倫（Thielen）在4月11日的市場報告中說，信貸利差繼續擴大，這表明“衰退的擔憂可能正在深入經濟。”

It may be too early for Bitcoiners to start getting bullish over the longer-term impacts of a potential recession on Bitcoin’s price, says 10x Research head of research Markus Thielen.

10倍研究負責人馬克斯·蒂倫（Markus Thielen）說，比特幣的長期影響對比特幣價格的長期影響可能還為時過早。

Thielen said in an April 11 markets report that credit spreads continue to widen, indicating that “recessionary concerns may be seeping deeper into the economy.”

蒂倫（Thielen）在4月11日的市場報告中說，信貸利差繼續擴大，這表明“衰退的擔憂可能正在深入經濟。”

“Expecting a bullish impulse is too early,” he said.

他說：“預計看漲的衝動還為時過早。”

Bitcoin may face short-term headwinds

比特幣可能會面臨短期逆風

While the long-term effects of a recession could be bullish for Bitcoin (BTC) — due to the monetary easing that typically follows US Federal Reserve rate cuts — Thielen warned that Bitcoin may face headwinds before gaining bullish momentum.

儘管經濟衰退的長期影響可能是比特幣（BTC）的看漲，這是由於通常遵循美國美聯儲削減稅率的貨幣寬鬆，但Thielen警告說，比特幣在獲得看漲勢頭之前可能會面臨逆風。

“Normally, Bitcoin first sells off when China devalues or the Fed cuts, as the first cut might not be so impactful and also confirms economic weakness,” Thielen told Cointelegraph.

Thielen告訴Cointelegraph：“通常，當中國貶值或削減美聯儲時，比特幣首先賣出，因為第一次削減可能沒有那麼影響，也可以證實經濟弱點。”

Bitcoin is trading at $80,620 at the time of publication. Source: CoinMarketCap

出版時，比特幣的交易價格為80,620美元。資料來源：CoinMarketCap

White House crypto and AI czar David Sacks said in an April 10 X post that it is “time for a rate cut” after the core Consumer Price Index increased 2.8% year-by-year for March, the lowest it has been since March 2021.

白宮加密貨幣和AI沙皇戴維·薩克斯（David Sacks）在4月10日的帖子中說，在3月的核心消費者價格指數同比同比增長2.8％之後，是“削減稅率的時候”，這是自2021年3月以來的最低點。

CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows a 64.8% chance of no rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s May Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

CME Group的FedWatch工具顯示，在美聯儲五月聯邦公開市場委員會會議上，無率降低的機會為64.8％。

Traders typically see interest rate cuts and monetary supply expansions as positively affecting asset prices, especially Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

貿易商通常將降低利率和貨幣供應量的擴張視為積極影響資產價格，尤其是比特幣和其他加密貨幣。

However, Thielen said that historically, when year-over-year credit spreads “begin to widen,” Bitcoin often faces more downside pressure and takes longer to recover.

但是，蒂倫（Thielen）表示，從歷史上看，當年份的信貸差異“開始擴大”時，比特幣通常會面臨更大的下行壓力，並且需要更長的時間才能恢復。

Related: Bitcoin ‘significantly de-risked here’ as nearly 80% of cyclical price correction is done — Analyst

相關：比特幣“在此處顯著危險”，因為近80％的周期性價格校正已完成 - 分析師

“This pattern suggests that while a longer-term opportunity may emerge, Bitcoin could still face pressure in the near term,” Thielen said. He added that currency devaluations have also historically been bearish for markets in the short term before being bullish in the long term.

蒂倫說：“這種模式表明，儘管可能會出現長期機會，但比特幣仍可能在短期內面臨壓力。”他補充說，從歷史上看，貨幣貶值也很短，從長遠來看是看漲的。

It comes amid growing concern among market participants over the weakening US dollar.

這是由於市場參與者對美元疲軟的越來越關注。

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is sitting at 100.337, down 2.92% over the past five days, according to TradingView data.

根據TradingView數據，美元指數（DXY）的時間為100.337，在過去五天中下降了2.92％。

The DXY is sitting at 100.337 at the time of publication. Source: TradingView

發行時，DXY坐在100.337中。資料來源：TradingView

Trading resource account, The Kobeissi Letter, said in an April 10 X post, “The US dollar has exited the room. Once again, something is broken.”

Kobeissi信件的交易資源帳戶在4月10日的帖子中說：“美元已退出房間。再一次，有些東西破裂了。”

Meanwhile, BlackRock’s head of digital assets, Robbie Mitchnick, said in late March that Bitcoin would most likely thrive in a recessionary macro environment.

同時，貝萊德（Blackrock）的數字資產負責人羅比·米奇尼克（Robbie Mitchnick）在3月下旬表示，比特幣很可能會在經濟衰退的宏觀環境中蓬勃發展。

“I don’t know if we’ll have a recession or not, but a recession would be a big catalyst for Bitcoin,” Mitchnick said.

米奇尼克說：“我不知道我們是否會衰退，但衰退將是比特幣的巨大催化劑。”