比特币人开始对经济衰退的长期影响开始看涨可能还为时过早

蒂伦（Thielen）在4月11日的市场报告中说，信贷利差继续扩大，这表明“衰退的担忧可能正在深入经济。”

It may be too early for Bitcoiners to start getting bullish over the longer-term impacts of a potential recession on Bitcoin’s price, says 10x Research head of research Markus Thielen.

10倍研究负责人马克斯·蒂伦（Markus Thielen）说，比特币的长期影响对比特币价格的长期影响可能还为时过早。

Thielen said in an April 11 markets report that credit spreads continue to widen, indicating that “recessionary concerns may be seeping deeper into the economy.”

蒂伦（Thielen）在4月11日的市场报告中说，信贷利差继续扩大，这表明“衰退的担忧可能正在深入经济。”

“Expecting a bullish impulse is too early,” he said.

他说：“预计看涨的冲动还为时过早。”

Bitcoin may face short-term headwinds

比特币可能会面临短期逆风

While the long-term effects of a recession could be bullish for Bitcoin (BTC) — due to the monetary easing that typically follows US Federal Reserve rate cuts — Thielen warned that Bitcoin may face headwinds before gaining bullish momentum.

尽管经济衰退的长期影响可能是比特币（BTC）的看涨，这是由于通常遵循美国美联储削减税率的货币宽松，但Thielen警告说，比特币在获得看涨势头之前可能会面临逆风。

“Normally, Bitcoin first sells off when China devalues or the Fed cuts, as the first cut might not be so impactful and also confirms economic weakness,” Thielen told Cointelegraph.

Thielen告诉Cointelegraph：“通常，当中国贬值或削减美联储时，比特币首先卖出，因为第一次削减可能没有那么影响，也可以证实经济弱点。”

Bitcoin is trading at $80,620 at the time of publication. Source: CoinMarketCap

出版时，比特币的交易价格为80,620美元。资料来源：CoinMarketCap

White House crypto and AI czar David Sacks said in an April 10 X post that it is “time for a rate cut” after the core Consumer Price Index increased 2.8% year-by-year for March, the lowest it has been since March 2021.

白宫加密货币和AI沙皇戴维·萨克斯（David Sacks）在4月10日的帖子中说，在3月的核心消费者价格指数同比同比增长2.8％之后，是“削减税率的时候”，这是自2021年3月以来的最低点。

CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows a 64.8% chance of no rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s May Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

CME Group的FedWatch工具显示，在美联储五月联邦公开市场委员会会议上，无率降低的机会为64.8％。

Traders typically see interest rate cuts and monetary supply expansions as positively affecting asset prices, especially Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

贸易商通常将降低利率和货币供应量的扩张视为积极影响资产价格，尤其是比特币和其他加密货币。

However, Thielen said that historically, when year-over-year credit spreads “begin to widen,” Bitcoin often faces more downside pressure and takes longer to recover.

但是，蒂伦（Thielen）表示，从历史上看，当年份的信贷差异“开始扩大”时，比特币通常会面临更大的下行压力，并且需要更长的时间才能恢复。

Related: Bitcoin ‘significantly de-risked here’ as nearly 80% of cyclical price correction is done — Analyst

相关：比特币“在此处显着危险”，因为近80％的周期性价格校正已完成 - 分析师

“This pattern suggests that while a longer-term opportunity may emerge, Bitcoin could still face pressure in the near term,” Thielen said. He added that currency devaluations have also historically been bearish for markets in the short term before being bullish in the long term.

蒂伦说：“这种模式表明，尽管可能会出现长期机会，但比特币仍可能在短期内面临压力。”他补充说，从历史上看，货币贬值也很短，从长远来看是看涨的。

It comes amid growing concern among market participants over the weakening US dollar.

这是由于市场参与者对美元疲软的越来越关注。

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is sitting at 100.337, down 2.92% over the past five days, according to TradingView data.

根据TradingView数据，美元指数（DXY）的时间为100.337，在过去五天中下降了2.92％。

The DXY is sitting at 100.337 at the time of publication. Source: TradingView

发行时，DXY坐在100.337中。资料来源：TradingView

Trading resource account, The Kobeissi Letter, said in an April 10 X post, “The US dollar has exited the room. Once again, something is broken.”

Kobeissi信件的交易资源帐户在4月10日的帖子中说：“美元已退出房间。再一次，有些东西破裂了。”

Meanwhile, BlackRock’s head of digital assets, Robbie Mitchnick, said in late March that Bitcoin would most likely thrive in a recessionary macro environment.

同时，贝莱德（Blackrock）的数字资产负责人罗比·米奇尼克（Robbie Mitchnick）在3月下旬表示，比特币很可能会在经济衰退的宏观环境中蓬勃发展。

“I don’t know if we’ll have a recession or not, but a recession would be a big catalyst for Bitcoin,” Mitchnick said.

米奇尼克说：“我不知道我们是否会衰退，但衰退将是比特币的巨大催化剂。”