比特幣1週實現的波動率最近達到了低水平

數據表明，比特幣的每週波動率最近跌落，這在歷史上導致了資產的暴力減壓。

Bitcoin 1-Week Realized Volatility Hit A Low Recently, What Happens Next?

比特幣1週實現的波動率最近降低了，接下來會發生什麼？

Bitcoin’s 1-week realized volatility has recently seen a sharp decline. This could signal a violent price move for the asset.

比特幣的1週意識到波動率最近急劇下降。這可能表明資產的暴力價格轉移。

Bitcoin’s price has been consolidating around the $100,000 mark for the past few weeks. During this period, the volatility of the cryptocurrency has also been decreasing.

在過去幾周中，比特幣的價格一直在合併約100,000美元。在此期間，加密貨幣的波動也正在減少。

Now, a new analysis of the realized volatility metric is showing that BTC’s volatility has hit a low level. Historically, such lows have been followed by large price movements.

現在，對已實現的波動率指標的新分析表明，BTC的波動性達到了低水平。從歷史上看，此類低價之後是巨大的價格變動。

Bitcoin 1-Week Realized Volatility Shows Minimal Changes In Recent Times

比特幣1週實現的波動率在近期顯示最小的變化

In a new post on X, CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr has discussed about the trend in the Realized Volatility for Bitcoin. The “Realized Volatility” here refers to an indicator that calculates how ‘volatile’ BTC has been using its percentage returns during a specific window of time.

在X上的新帖子中，CryptoQuant作家Axel Adler JR討論了比特幣實現波動率的趨勢。這裡的“實現波動”是指計算在特定時間窗口中使用其'volatile'BTC使用其百分比回報的指標。

In the context of the current topic, the window is of one week. Thus, this version of the Realized Volatility tells us about the percentage difference between the price high and low during the past week.

在當前主題的背景下，窗口為一周。因此，這種已實現的波動率的版本告訴我們過去一周價格高和低之間的百分比差異。

Below is the chart for the indicator shared by the analyst, that shows the trend in its value during the last few years.

以下是分析師共享的指標的圖表，該圖表顯示了過去幾年其價值的趨勢。

As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin 1-week Realized Volatility has recently seen a sharp decline to the 8.7% mark. This is a low level for this cycle, as the metric has only gone below it on a few occasions.

如上圖中可見的那樣，比特幣1週實現的波動率最近急劇下降到8.7％。這是此週期的低水平，因為該度量僅在幾次時才低於它。

In the chart, the analyst has highlighted all the instances where the indicator touched this line or fell under it. Interestingly, the volatility of the cryptocurrency compressing to this degree has generally led into a violent move for its price.

在圖表中，分析師強調了指標觸及此線或落在其下方的所有實例。有趣的是，加密貨幣壓縮到該學位的波動通常導致其價格暴力行動。

There is no particular pattern related to whether the move following a low volatility period would be bearish or bullish, though, as BTC has seen both types of trends during the last few years.

但是，在過去幾年中BTC看到兩種類型的趨勢時，較低的波動期之後的舉動是看跌或看漲的，沒有特定模式。

The last time that the 1-week Realized Volatility declined to the level, for example, led into a bull rally for Bitcoin. The instance before that, on the other hand, resulted in bearish action for the coin.

例如，1週意識到波動率的最後一次下降到了水平，導致了比特幣的公牛集會。另一方面，在此之前的實例導致了硬幣的看跌作用。

Adler Jr has also pointed out that BTC is currently trading near its 111-day moving average (MA), a level that has been important for it over the years. “If conditions do not improve, the next move could be a drop to $92K, below the 111DMA,” notes the analyst.

小阿德勒（Adler JR）還指出，BTC目前正在交易其111天移動平均線（MA），這一水平對其多年來很重要。分析師指出：“如果條件沒有改善，下一步可能會降至111DMA以下的$ 92K。”

Bitcoin Net Taker Volume Shows Short Volume Leading The Market

比特幣淨收到的量顯示了領先市場的短量

In some other news, the Bitcoin Net Taker Volume, a metric that measures the difference between the taker buy and taker sell volumes of BTC, has dipped into the negative zone recently, as CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has explained in an X post.

在其他一些新聞中，比特幣淨接收器數量是衡量Taker Buy和Taker銷售BTC銷售量之間差異的指標，最近降低了負區域，正如隱秘的社區分析師Maartunn在X帖子中解釋的那樣。

The indicator’s dip into the red territory means the short volume is outpacing the long one, so a bearish sentiment is shared by the derivatives traders. Interestingly, as the analyst has highlighted in the above graph, this pattern has consistently signaled a local bottom for Bitcoin during the recent phase of consolidation.

指標向紅色領土的下降意味著短卷超過了長期的量，因此衍生品交易員共享看跌的情緒。有趣的是，正如分析師在上圖中強調的那樣，這種模式一直在固結階段始終向比特幣的局部底部發出信號。

BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $97,400, up around 1% in the last 24 hours.

BTC在寫作時的價格，比特幣的價格約為97,400美元，在過去24小時內上漲了約1％。