比特幣波動性在預期減半前飆升，引發擔憂和興奮

比特幣跌破 7 萬美元，四月減半前波動加劇。比特幣的30 天年化實際波動率超過60%，為2022 年8 月以來的最高水平。雖然減半往往會導致價格上漲，但分析師警告稱，市場可能已經消化了這一點。然而，即將到來的減半是獨一無二的，比特幣將創下歷史新高。- 在此之前的歷史高點，可能會造成供應緊縮並推動看漲情緒。

Bitcoin Volatility Surges Ahead of Anticipated Halving, Raising Concerns and Bullish Sentiments

比特幣波動性在預期減半前飆升，引發擔憂和看漲情緒

As the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving draws near, the cryptocurrency market has witnessed a surge in volatility, with Bitcoin's price slipping below the $70,000 mark on Monday morning.

隨著備受期待的比特幣減半臨近，加密貨幣市場波動性激增，週一上午比特幣價格跌破7萬美元大關。

Bitcoin currently sits at around $69,565, marking a 1.1% decline for the day but still maintaining a 4% gain over the week, according to data from CoinGecko. This price fluctuation comes amid increased uncertainty surrounding the upcoming block reward halving scheduled for or around April 20.

根據 CoinGecko 的數據，比特幣目前價格約為 69,565 美元，當天下跌 1.1%，但本週仍保持 4% 的漲幅。此次價格波動是在 4 月 20 日左右即將到來的區塊獎勵減半的不確定性增加的背景下發生的。

To gauge Bitcoin's volatility, analysts often refer to its 30-day annualized realized volatility, which has recently surged to a high of 63.76%, remaining above 60% by the end of last week. This figure, obtained from Glassnode data, represents the highest level since August 2022 and reflects the increasing price risk associated with the cryptocurrency over the specified period.

為了衡量比特幣的波動性，分析師經常參考其30天年化實際波動率，該波動率最近飆升至63.76%的高位，截至上週末仍維持在60%以上。該數字來自 Glassnode 數據，代表了自 2022 年 8 月以來的最高水平，反映了特定時期內與加密貨幣相關的價格風險不斷增加。

According to Andy Bromberg, CEO of Beam, this recent volatility is indicative of a "crisis of faith" among traders leading up to the halving. Every four years, the halving event reduces the block reward allocated to miners by 50%, serving as a mechanism to regulate the distribution of Bitcoin's fixed supply capped at 21 million. The upcoming halving will witness mining rewards dropping from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

Beam 執行長 Andy Bromberg 表示，最近的波動表明交易者在減半之前出現了「信仰危機」。每四年，減半事件會將分配給礦工的區塊獎勵減少 50%，作為調節比特幣固定供應量分配上限為 2,100 萬的機制。即將到來的減半將見證挖礦獎勵從 6.25 BTC 降至 3.125 BTC。

Historically, Bitcoin halvings have often been followed by price surges. However, some analysts caution that this anticipated price increase may already be factored into the market. A recent Coinbase report suggests that previous price rallies have also coincided with broader macroeconomic events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns, leading to extremely loose monetary policies and substantial fiscal stimulus.

從歷史上看，比特幣減半之後往往會出現價格飆升。然而，一些分析師警告稱，市場可能已經考慮到了這種預期的價格上漲。 Coinbase 最近的一份報告表明，先前的價格上漲也與更廣泛的宏觀經濟事件同時發生，例如 COVID-19 大流行和隨後的封鎖，導致極度寬鬆的貨幣政策和大規模的財政刺激。

One unique aspect of the 2024 halving is Bitcoin's attainment of an all-time high price ahead of the event, largely driven by the approval of multiple US spot Bitcoin ETFs in January. This, coupled with the halving's reduction in new Bitcoin supply, could potentially result in a supply crunch, which some analysts view as a bullish indicator for Bitcoin's price trajectory as the halving approaches.

2024 年減半的一個獨特之處是，比特幣在減半之前達到了歷史最高價格，這主要是由於 1 月份多個美國現貨比特幣 ETF 獲得批准。再加上減半後比特幣新供應量的減少，可能會導致供應緊縮，一些分析師認為，隨著減半的臨近，這是比特幣價格軌蹟的看漲指標。

As the Bitcoin halving draws closer, investors are eagerly watching the cryptocurrency's volatility and price movements, anticipating the potential impact on the market. While historical trends and expert opinions offer insights, the outcome remains uncertain, leaving investors cautiously optimistic and closely monitoring the unfolding events.

隨著比特幣減半的臨近，投資者正在熱切關注該加密貨幣的波動和價格走勢，預測其對市場的潛在影響。儘管歷史趨勢和專家意見提供了見解，但結果仍然不確定，這讓投資者保持謹慎樂觀並密切關注正在發生的事件。