比特币波动性在预期减半之前飙升，引发担忧和兴奋

比特币跌破 70,000 美元，四月份减半前波动加剧。比特币的 30 天年化实际波动率超过 60%，为 2022 年 8 月以来的最高水平。虽然减半往往会导致价格上涨，但分析师警告称，市场可能已经消化了这一点。然而，即将到来的减半是独一无二的，比特币将创下历史新高。 - 在此之前的历史高点，可能会造成供应紧缩并推动看涨情绪。

Bitcoin Volatility Surges Ahead of Anticipated Halving, Raising Concerns and Bullish Sentiments

比特币波动性在预期减半之前飙升，引发担忧和看涨情绪

As the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving draws near, the cryptocurrency market has witnessed a surge in volatility, with Bitcoin's price slipping below the $70,000 mark on Monday morning.

随着备受期待的比特币减半临近，加密货币市场波动性激增，周一上午比特币价格跌破7万美元大关。

Bitcoin currently sits at around $69,565, marking a 1.1% decline for the day but still maintaining a 4% gain over the week, according to data from CoinGecko. This price fluctuation comes amid increased uncertainty surrounding the upcoming block reward halving scheduled for or around April 20.

根据 CoinGecko 的数据，比特币目前价格约为 69,565 美元，当天下跌 1.1%，但本周仍保持 4% 的涨幅。此次价格波动是在 4 月 20 日左右即将到来的区块奖励减半的不确定性增加的背景下发生的。

To gauge Bitcoin's volatility, analysts often refer to its 30-day annualized realized volatility, which has recently surged to a high of 63.76%, remaining above 60% by the end of last week. This figure, obtained from Glassnode data, represents the highest level since August 2022 and reflects the increasing price risk associated with the cryptocurrency over the specified period.

为了衡量比特币的波动性，分析师经常参考其30天年化实际波动率，该波动率最近飙升至63.76%的高位，截至上周末仍保持在60%以上。该数字来自 Glassnode 数据，代表了 2022 年 8 月以来的最高水平，反映了特定时期内与加密货币相关的价格风险不断增加。

According to Andy Bromberg, CEO of Beam, this recent volatility is indicative of a "crisis of faith" among traders leading up to the halving. Every four years, the halving event reduces the block reward allocated to miners by 50%, serving as a mechanism to regulate the distribution of Bitcoin's fixed supply capped at 21 million. The upcoming halving will witness mining rewards dropping from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

Beam 首席执行官安迪·布罗姆伯格 (Andy Bromberg) 表示，最近的波动表明交易者在减半之前出现了“信仰危机”。每四年，减半事件会将分配给矿工的区块奖励减少 50%，作为调节比特币固定供应量分配上限为 2100 万的机制。即将到来的减半将见证挖矿奖励从 6.25 BTC 降至 3.125 BTC。

Historically, Bitcoin halvings have often been followed by price surges. However, some analysts caution that this anticipated price increase may already be factored into the market. A recent Coinbase report suggests that previous price rallies have also coincided with broader macroeconomic events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns, leading to extremely loose monetary policies and substantial fiscal stimulus.

从历史上看，比特币减半之后往往会出现价格飙升。然而，一些分析师警告称，市场可能已经考虑到了这种预期的价格上涨。 Coinbase 最近的一份报告表明，之前的价格上涨也与更广泛的宏观经济事件同时发生，例如 COVID-19 大流行和随后的封锁，导致极度宽松的货币政策和大规模的财政刺激。

One unique aspect of the 2024 halving is Bitcoin's attainment of an all-time high price ahead of the event, largely driven by the approval of multiple US spot Bitcoin ETFs in January. This, coupled with the halving's reduction in new Bitcoin supply, could potentially result in a supply crunch, which some analysts view as a bullish indicator for Bitcoin's price trajectory as the halving approaches.

2024 年减半的一个独特之处是，比特币在减半之前达到了历史最高价格，这主要是由于 1 月份多个美国现货比特币 ETF 获得批准。再加上减半后比特币新供应量的减少，可能会导致供应紧缩，一些分析师认为，随着减半的临近，这是比特币价格轨迹的看涨指标。

As the Bitcoin halving draws closer, investors are eagerly watching the cryptocurrency's volatility and price movements, anticipating the potential impact on the market. While historical trends and expert opinions offer insights, the outcome remains uncertain, leaving investors cautiously optimistic and closely monitoring the unfolding events.

随着比特币减半的临近，投资者正在热切关注该加密货币的波动和价格走势，预测其对市场的潜在影响。尽管历史趋势和专家意见提供了见解，但结果仍然不确定，这让投资者保持谨慎乐观并密切关注正在发生的事件。