專家表示，比特幣波動訊號顯示恐慌情緒減半

最近的比特幣波動源於即將到來的減半的不確定性，即礦工的獎勵減少了一半。 Beam 執行長 Andy Bromberg 表示，這種市場波動是減半前的典型現象，交易員質疑價格是否充分考慮了這一事件。比特幣的價格最近在 73,000 美元的高點和 62,000 美元的低點之間波動。

Is Bitcoin Volatility a Sign of Halving Jitters?

比特幣波動是恐慌減半的跡象嗎？

According to Andy Bromberg, CEO of Beam, the recent Bitcoin volatility is a telltale sign that traders are having second thoughts about whether they've accurately priced in the upcoming halving. Bromberg explains that in the lead-up to the halving, the narrative of rising prices tends to drive market sentiment. However, as the halving approaches, investors often experience a crisis of faith, resulting in whipsaw volatility.

Beam 執行長 Andy Bromberg 表示，最近的比特幣波動是一個明顯的跡象，表明交易者正在重新考慮他們是否準確地定價了即將到來的減半。布羅姆伯格解釋說，在減半之前，價格上漲的敘事往往會推動市場情緒。然而，隨著減半的臨近，投資者往往會遭遇信仰危機，導致大幅波動。

What's Happening in the Market Now?

現在市場發生了什麼事？

Bromberg believes the market is currently in this whipsaw volatility phase. In the past week alone, Bitcoin surged past $73,000, setting a new all-time high, only to plunge below $62,000. As of this writing, Bitcoin hovers around $65,000, having lost 3% in the previous 24 hours.

布羅姆伯格認為，市場目前正處於鋸齒狀波動階段。光是過去一周，比特幣就飆升至 73,000 美元以上，創下歷史新高，但隨後又跌破 62,000 美元。截至撰寫本文時，比特幣徘徊在 65,000 美元左右，在過去 24 小時內下跌了 3%。

The Bitcoin Halving: A Brief Overview

比特幣減半：簡要概述

The Bitcoin halving, as the name suggests, reduces the rate at which new Bitcoin is awarded to miners by half. It has occurred three times since Bitcoin's inception in January 2009.

顧名思義，比特幣減半會將新比特幣獎勵給礦工的比率降低一半。自 2009 年 1 月比特幣誕生以來，這種情況已經發生了 3 次。

When is the Next Halving?

下一次減半是什麼時候？

According to NiceHash, the next halving is estimated to occur on April 27. However, due to the halving being scheduled based on the number of blocks mined on the Bitcoin network, it's difficult to pinpoint an exact date.

據 NiceHash 稱，預計下一次減半發生在 4 月 27 日。然而，由於減半是根據比特幣網路上開採的區塊數量來安排的，因此很難確定確切的日期。

The Bitcoin Halving and Price: A Historical Perspective

比特幣減半與價格：歷史視角

Historically, when the rate of new Bitcoin entering the market has been halved every four years, it has often triggered a price rally.

從歷史上看，當新比特幣進入市場的速度每四年減半時，往往會引發價格上漲。

• First halving (November 28, 2012): Bitcoin's price saw a significant increase, rising from less than a penny to $12.
• Second halving (July 9, 2016): Bitcoin's price experienced a slow but steady rise, culminating in an all-time high of $19,783.06 in December 2017.
• Third halving (May 11, 2020): Bitcoin's price experienced volatility and a dip due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it recovered and saw a substantial rally, reaching a new all-time high of $69,000.

Is This Halving Different?

第一次減半（2012年11月28日）：比特幣價格大幅上漲，從不到一便士漲至12美元。第二次減半（2016年7月9日）：比特幣價格緩慢但穩定上漲，最終創下歷史新高2017 年 12 月為 19,783.06 美元。第三次減半（2020 年 5 月 11 日）：由於 COVID-19 大流行，比特幣的價格經歷了波動和下跌。然而，它恢復並大幅上漲，達到 69,000 美元的歷史新高。這次減半有何不同？

Bromberg believes this halving is unique due to the following factors:

布羅姆伯格認為，由於以下因素，這次減半是獨一無二的：

• Strong demand: Bromberg believes demand for Bitcoin is unlikely to change, particularly with the emergence of ETFs, which have introduced a new demand driver.
• ETFs and liquidity: Last week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs purchased nearly 36,000 BTC. While there have been outflows this week, Bromberg doesn't anticipate a liquidity crisis because ETF investors tend to be more short-term, opportunistic traders.
• Market depth: Bromberg emphasizes that Bitcoin markets, especially with ETFs and futures, have become deep and liquid, mitigating concerns about liquidity issues.

強勁的需求： Bromberg 認為比特幣的需求不太可能發生變化，尤其是 ETF 的出現，引入了新的需求驅動力。 ETF 和流動性： 上週，美國現貨比特幣 ETF 購買了近 36,000 枚 BTC。儘管本週出現了資金外流，但布羅姆伯格預計不會出現流動性危機，因為 ETF 投資者往往是短期的、機會主義的交易者。市場深度：布羅姆伯格強調，比特幣市場，尤其是ETF 和期貨，已經變得深度和流動性強，減輕對流動性問題的擔憂。