专家表示，比特币波动信号表明恐慌情绪减半

最近的比特币波动源于即将到来的减半的不确定性，即矿工的奖励减少了一半。 Beam 首席执行官安迪·布罗姆伯格 (Andy Bromberg) 表示，这种市场波动是减半前的典型现象，交易员质疑价格是否充分考虑了这一事件。比特币的价格最近在 73,000 美元的高点和 62,000 美元的低点之间波动。

Is Bitcoin Volatility a Sign of Halving Jitters?

比特币波动是恐慌减半的迹象吗？

According to Andy Bromberg, CEO of Beam, the recent Bitcoin volatility is a telltale sign that traders are having second thoughts about whether they've accurately priced in the upcoming halving. Bromberg explains that in the lead-up to the halving, the narrative of rising prices tends to drive market sentiment. However, as the halving approaches, investors often experience a crisis of faith, resulting in whipsaw volatility.

Beam 首席执行官安迪·布罗姆伯格 (Andy Bromberg) 表示，最近的比特币波动是一个明显的迹象，表明交易者正在重新考虑他们是否准确地定价了即将到来的减半。布罗姆伯格解释说，在减半之前，价格上涨的叙述往往会推动市场情绪。然而，随着减半的临近，投资者往往会遭遇信仰危机，导致大幅波动。

What's Happening in the Market Now?

现在市场发生了什么？

Bromberg believes the market is currently in this whipsaw volatility phase. In the past week alone, Bitcoin surged past $73,000, setting a new all-time high, only to plunge below $62,000. As of this writing, Bitcoin hovers around $65,000, having lost 3% in the previous 24 hours.

布罗姆伯格认为，市场目前正处于锯齿状波动阶段。仅在过去一周，比特币就飙升至 73,000 美元以上，创下历史新高，但随后又跌破 62,000 美元。截至撰写本文时，比特币徘徊在 65,000 美元左右，在过去 24 小时内下跌了 3%。

The Bitcoin Halving: A Brief Overview

比特币减半：简要概述

The Bitcoin halving, as the name suggests, reduces the rate at which new Bitcoin is awarded to miners by half. It has occurred three times since Bitcoin's inception in January 2009.

顾名思义，比特币减半会将新比特币奖励给矿工的比率降低一半。自 2009 年 1 月比特币诞生以来，这种情况已经发生了 3 次。

When is the Next Halving?

下一次减半是什么时候？

According to NiceHash, the next halving is estimated to occur on April 27. However, due to the halving being scheduled based on the number of blocks mined on the Bitcoin network, it's difficult to pinpoint an exact date.

据 NiceHash 称，预计下一次减半发生在 4 月 27 日。然而，由于减半是根据比特币网络上开采的区块数量来安排的，因此很难确定确切的日期。

The Bitcoin Halving and Price: A Historical Perspective

比特币减半和价格：历史视角

Historically, when the rate of new Bitcoin entering the market has been halved every four years, it has often triggered a price rally.

从历史上看，当新比特币进入市场的速度每四年减半时，往往会引发价格上涨。

• First halving (November 28, 2012): Bitcoin's price saw a significant increase, rising from less than a penny to $12.
• Second halving (July 9, 2016): Bitcoin's price experienced a slow but steady rise, culminating in an all-time high of $19,783.06 in December 2017.
• Third halving (May 11, 2020): Bitcoin's price experienced volatility and a dip due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it recovered and saw a substantial rally, reaching a new all-time high of $69,000.

Is This Halving Different?

第一次减半（2012年11月28日）：比特币价格大幅上涨，从不足一便士涨至12美元。第二次减半（2016年7月9日）：比特币价格缓慢但稳定上涨，最终创下历史新高2017 年 12 月为 19,783.06 美元。 第三次减半（2020 年 5 月 11 日）：由于 COVID-19 大流行，比特币的价格经历了波动和下跌。然而，它恢复并大幅上涨，达到 69,000 美元的历史新高。这次减半有何不同？

Bromberg believes this halving is unique due to the following factors:

布罗姆伯格认为，由于以下因素，这次减半是独一无二的：

• Strong demand: Bromberg believes demand for Bitcoin is unlikely to change, particularly with the emergence of ETFs, which have introduced a new demand driver.
• ETFs and liquidity: Last week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs purchased nearly 36,000 BTC. While there have been outflows this week, Bromberg doesn't anticipate a liquidity crisis because ETF investors tend to be more short-term, opportunistic traders.
• Market depth: Bromberg emphasizes that Bitcoin markets, especially with ETFs and futures, have become deep and liquid, mitigating concerns about liquidity issues.

强劲的需求：Bromberg 认为比特币的需求不太可能发生变化，尤其是 ETF 的出现，引入了新的需求驱动力。 ETF 和流动性：上周，美国现货比特币 ETF 购买了近 36,000 枚 BTC。尽管本周出现了资金外流，但布罗姆伯格预计不会出现流动性危机，因为 ETF 投资者往往是短期的、机会主义的交易者。 市场深度：布罗姆伯格强调，比特币市场，尤其是 ETF 和期货，已经变得深度和流动性强，减轻对流动性问题的担忧。