比特幣飆升，華爾街預測減半催化劑將帶來指數級成長

由於風險偏好上升以及現貨比特幣ETF核准和即將到來的減半事件等因素，比特幣在過去一年飆升了116%。包括安東尼·斯卡拉穆奇（Anthony Scaramucci）、湯姆·李（Tom Lee）和凱西·伍德（Cathie Wood）在內的幾位華爾街分析師預測，比特幣具有巨大的上漲潛力，預測範圍為當前價格的525% 至5,800%。這些專家指出，現貨比特幣 ETF 需求的預期成長和減半後供應的減少是預期價格上漲的關鍵驅動因素。

Bitcoin: A Surge of Optimism Propels the Cryptocurrency to New Heights, with Wall Street Analysts Predicting Exponential Growth

比特幣：樂觀情緒高漲將加密貨幣推向新高度，華爾街分析師預測其呈指數級增長

In a remarkable surge of momentum, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has ascended by 116% over the past year, propelled by a resurgence in risk assets and an increasingly optimistic economic outlook. This upward trajectory has been further fueled by the recent approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the upcoming halving of Bitcoin mining rewards, which is estimated to occur on April 16, 2024.

在風險資產復甦和日益樂觀的經濟前景的推動下，比特幣（加密貨幣：BTC）在過去一年中上漲了 116%。最近現貨比特幣交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的批准以及即將到來的比特幣挖礦獎勵減半（預計將於 2024 年 4 月 16 日發生）進一步推動了這一上升趨勢。

Bolstering this bullish sentiment, several prominent Wall Street analysts have expressed their belief that Bitcoin's upward trajectory will continue unabated, with Anthony Scaramucci, Tom Lee, and Cathie Wood emerging as the most optimistic voices. Their bold forecasts project a potential upside ranging from a modest 525% to an astounding 5,800% from the current price of $64,000.

為了支持這種看漲情緒，幾位著名的華爾街分析師表示，他們相信比特幣的上漲軌跡將繼續有增無減，其中安東尼·斯卡拉穆奇、湯姆·李和凱西·伍德成為最樂觀的聲音。他們大膽預測，與目前 64,000 美元的價格相比，潛在上漲幅度從 525% 到驚人的 5,800% 不等。

Catalysts Fueling Bitcoin's Rise

推動比特幣上漲的催化劑

The two primary catalysts behind Bitcoin's anticipated surge are the recently approved spot Bitcoin ETFs and the upcoming halving of Bitcoin mining rewards. Spot Bitcoin ETFs offer investors direct exposure to Bitcoin, eliminating the complexities and friction associated with cryptocurrency exchanges. This ease of access has the potential to significantly increase demand, as it allows investors to consolidate their investments and bypass the often-prohibitive transaction fees associated with cryptocurrency purchases.

比特幣預期飆升背後的兩個主要催化劑是最近批准的現貨比特幣 ETF 和即將到來的比特幣挖礦獎勵減半。現貨比特幣 ETF 為投資者提供了直接投資比特幣的機會，消除了與加密貨幣交易相關的複雜性和摩擦。這種便捷的存取方式有可能顯著增加需求，因為它允許投資者整合他們的投資並繞過與購買加密貨幣相關的通常令人望而卻步的交易費用。

Meanwhile, the halving of Bitcoin mining rewards, scheduled for April 2024, is designed to ensure that Bitcoin's supply never exceeds 21 million. This event, which occurs approximately once every four years, reduces the amount of Bitcoin miners receive as a reward for verifying transactions by 50%. As a result, miners will have less Bitcoin to sell over the subsequent four years, thereby diminishing the selling pressure on the market.

同時，定於 2024 年 4 月進行的比特幣挖礦獎勵減半旨在確保比特幣的供應量永遠不會超過 2,100 萬枚。這事件大約每四年發生一次，使比特幣礦工因驗證交易而獲得的獎勵數量減少了 50%。因此，礦商在接下來的四年內出售的比特幣將減少，從而減輕市場的拋售壓力。

Expert Predictions and Historical Precedents

專家預測和歷史先例

Anthony Scaramucci, the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge Capital, anticipates that Bitcoin could reach $400,000 per coin, representing a potential upside of 525%. His prediction is based on historical data indicating that Bitcoin has consistently quadrupled in value during the 18-month period following halving events. Scaramucci draws a parallel between Bitcoin's potential growth and the historical trajectory of gold, suggesting that it could eventually attain half the market capitalization of gold, which currently stands at $14.5 trillion.

SkyBridge Capital 的創始人兼執行合夥人 Anthony Scaramucci 預計，比特幣每枚價格可能達到 40 萬美元，潛在上漲空間為 525%。他的預測是基於歷史數據，顯示比特幣的價值在減半事件發生後的 18 個月內持續翻了兩番。斯卡拉穆奇將比特幣的潛在增長與黃金的歷史軌跡進行了比較，表明比特幣最終可能達到黃金市值的一半，目前黃金市值為 14.5 兆美元。

Tom Lee, managing partner and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, is equally bullish on Bitcoin's prospects, projecting a surge to $500,000 within the next five years. He attributes this potential growth to the confluence of increased demand driven by spot Bitcoin ETFs, diminishing supply due to the halving event, and a favorable macroeconomic environment characterized by easing monetary policy. Lee is not alone in his $500,000 forecast; Michael Saylor, the CEO of MicroStrategy, has also expressed similar optimism, envisioning Bitcoin reaching this milestone within the coming decade.

Fundstrat Global Advisors 管理合夥人兼研究主管 Tom Lee 同樣看好比特幣的前景，預計未來五年內比特幣價格將飆升至 50 萬美元。他將這一潛在增長歸因於現貨比特幣 ETF 驅動的需求增加、減半事件導致的供應減少以及以寬鬆貨幣政策為特徵的有利宏觀經濟環境的綜合作用。 Lee 並不是唯一一個預測 50 萬美元的人。 MicroStrategy 執行長 Michael Saylor 也表達了類似的樂觀態度，預計比特幣將在未來十年內達到這一里程碑。

Cathie Wood, the CEO and chief investment officer of Ark Invest, has gone even further, predicting that Bitcoin could reach a staggering $3.8 million per coin, a potential upside of 5,800%. Her model takes into account the growing institutional adoption of Bitcoin, particularly among asset managers who focus on disruptive innovation. Wood believes that as institutional investors allocate a larger portion of their portfolios to Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency's value will soar.

Ark Invest 執行長兼首席投資長 Cathie Wood 甚至更進一步，預測比特幣每枚幣的價格可能會達到驚人的 380 萬美元，潛在上漲幅度為 5,800%。她的模型考慮到了比特幣越來越多的機構採用，特別是在專注於顛覆性創新的資產管理公司。伍德認為，隨著機構投資者將投資組合的更大一部分分配給比特幣，加密貨幣的價值將會飆升。

Caution and Calculated Risk

注意事項和計算風險

While the forecasts of these analysts are undeniably enticing, it is important for investors to approach them with caution. There is no guarantee that Bitcoin will continue its upward ascent, and investors should be mindful of the inherent volatility associated with cryptocurrencies. Anchoring to forecasts can be dangerous, and investors should focus on factual data and a comprehensive understanding of the market before making any investment decisions.

雖然這些分析師的預測無疑很有吸引力，但投資者必須謹慎對待他們。無法保證比特幣會繼續上漲，投資者應注意與加密貨幣相關的固有波動性。錨定預測可能是危險的，投資者在做出任何投資決策之前應專注於事實數據和對市場的全面了解。

Despite the risks, Bitcoin has consistently outperformed virtually every other asset class over the past five years. The recent launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs has already proven to be a monumental success, with record-breaking inflows during their first month of trading. While the future trajectory of Bitcoin is uncertain, it remains a viable investment option for patient investors who are comfortable with risk and have a long-term investment horizon.

儘管存在風險，但比特幣在過去五年中的表現始終優於幾乎所有其他資產類別。最近推出的現貨比特幣 ETF 已被證明取得了巨大成功，交易第一個月的資金流入就創下了紀錄。儘管比特幣的未來軌跡尚不確定，但對於願意承受風險並擁有長期投資視野的耐心投資者來說，它仍然是一個可行的投資選擇。

Allocating a small percentage of one's portfolio to Bitcoin can be a prudent strategy for investors seeking potential upside. However, it is crucial to approach this investment with a measured and calculated approach, recognizing the inherent risks and volatility associated with cryptocurrencies.

對於尋求潛在上漲空間的投資者來說，將投資組合的一小部分分配給比特幣可能是一種謹慎的策略。然而，至關重要的是，要透過衡量和計算的方法來進行這項投資，並認識到與加密貨幣相關的固有風險和波動性。