比特幣的飆升：通往前所未有的財務回報的大門

比特幣的飆升重新引發了對其投資潛力的討論，尤其是那些後悔沒有儘早投資的人。雖然分析師根據歷史模式和即將到來的減半事件預測另一場牛市，但在做出投資決策之前保持謹慎並進行徹底的市場研究至關重要。長期策略和計算出的風險承受能力應該指導波動的加密貨幣市場的投資選擇。

Bitcoin's Stellar Rise: A Path to Unprecedented Financial Gains

比特幣的飆升：一條通往前所未有的財務收益的道路

In the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance, Bitcoin has emerged as a beacon of hope and a harbinger of substantial returns. Within a matter of months, the leading cryptocurrency has witnessed an astronomical surge in value, reaching a record-shattering peak of $69,170. This unprecedented ascent is the result of a confluence of favorable factors, including a supportive macroeconomic climate, the long-awaited approval of the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and the upcoming halving event, renowned for its positive impact on the asset's price performance.

在不斷發展的數位金融領域，比特幣已成為希望的燈塔和豐厚回報的預兆。在短短幾個月內，領先的加密貨幣的價值就出現了天文數字般的飆升，達到了 69,170 美元的破紀錄高峰。這種前所未有的上漲是有利因素綜合作用的結果，包括有利的宏觀經濟環境、美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 期待已久的首個現貨比特幣交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的批准，以及即將到來的減半事件以其對資產價格表現的正面影響而聞名。

Yet, as optimism and excitement pervade the market, many investors grapple with a twinge of regret for not seizing the opportunity to acquire Bitcoin at its former, more accessible price point. A palpable sense of "fear of missing out" (FOMO) intertwines with a lingering belief that the Bitcoin ship has sailed, leaving behind those who hesitate.

然而，隨著市場上瀰漫著樂觀和興奮的情緒，許多投資者因沒有抓住機會以以前更容易接受的價格購買比特幣而感到一陣遺憾。一種明顯的「害怕錯過」（FOMO）的感覺與一種揮之不去的信念交織在一起，即比特幣的船已經揚帆起航，留下了那些猶豫不決的人。

Embracing the Lessons of History

汲取歷史教訓

Time is of the essence in the realm of investing. Discerning the right moment to acquire an asset can sow the seeds for substantial returns, while procrastination can lead to missed opportunities and potential losses. The price history of Bitcoin offers a compelling illustration of this dynamic.

在投資領域，時間至關重要。辨別收購資產的正確時機可以播下豐厚回報的種子，而拖延可能導致錯失機會和潛在損失。比特幣的價格歷史為這種動態提供了令人信服的例證。

Concerned investors harbor valid reservations that the current uptrend may be reaching its twilight, leaving them to lament their missed chance to enter the market when Bitcoin was still a lucrative investment. Bitcoin's cyclical nature, characterized by alternating periods of rapid growth and consolidation, known as bull and bear markets, has manifested itself three times since its inception in 2013.

憂心忡忡的投資者對當前的上漲趨勢可能已接近尾聲抱有合理的保留，這讓他們感嘆在比特幣仍然是一項利潤豐厚的投資時錯失了進入市場的機會。比特幣的周期性特徵是快速增長和盤整期交替出現，即牛市和熊市，自 2013 年誕生以來，已經三次顯現出來。

During the first major bull run in 2013, Bitcoin's price skyrocketed from a mere $145 to over $1,200 within a year. At the time, Bitcoin was viewed as a novel experiment, largely dismissed by mainstream investors. However, those who dared to venture into this uncharted territory reaped substantial rewards as the bull market reached its zenith. The subsequent bear market saw Bitcoin plunge from $800 to $178, decimating the fortunes of many investors.

在 2013 年第一次大牛市期間，比特幣的價格在一年內從區區 145 美元飆升至 1,200 美元以上。當時，比特幣被視為一種新穎的實驗，很大程度上被主流投資者所忽視。然而，隨著牛市達到頂峰，那些敢於冒險進入這個未知領域的人獲得了豐厚的回報。在隨後的熊市中，比特幣從 800 美元暴跌至 178 美元，許多投資者的財富遭受重創。

The second boom cycle culminated in December 2017, with Bitcoin reaching a new high of $19,500. Once again, investors witnessed their portfolios soar in value. However, the inevitable downturn ensued, and the ensuing bear market sent Bitcoin plummeting to $3,600 by December 2018.

第二次繁榮週期在 2017 年 12 月達到頂峰，比特幣達到 19,500 美元的新高。投資者再次見證了他們的投資組合價值飆升。然而，不可避免的低迷隨之而來，隨之而來的熊市導致比特幣在 2018 年 12 月暴跌至 3,600 美元。

Bitcoin embarked on a new bull run in 2021, gradually recovering its losses until hitting a record peak of $68,700 in November. This surge marked the pinnacle of earnings for savvy investors who navigated the volatile waters. As anticipated, the ensuing correction and the advent of the latest crypto winter resulted in significant losses.

比特幣在 2021 年開啟了新一輪牛市，逐漸收復失地，直至 11 月觸及 68,700 美元的歷史新高。對於在動盪的水域中航行的精明投資者來說，這種飆升標誌著收益的頂峰。正如預期的那樣，隨後的調整和最近的加密貨幣冬天的到來導致了重大損失。

Now, as Bitcoin surpasses its previous record, analysts cite these historical patterns to bolster their predictions of another imminent bull run, promising even more substantial gains.

現在，隨著比特幣超越之前的記錄，分析師引用這些歷史模式來支持他們對即將到來的另一場牛市的預測，並承諾帶來更可觀的收益。

High Hopes and Cautious Optimism

寄予厚望和謹慎樂觀

If we lend our ears to the prognostications of experts regarding Bitcoin's trajectory in the coming months, the consensus is clear: the best is yet to come. Those who have yet to acquire Bitcoin still have ample opportunity to seize the moment and add this dynamic asset to their portfolios.

如果我們傾聽專家對比特幣未來幾個月走勢的預測，我們的共識是明確的：最好的尚未到來。那些尚未購買比特幣的人仍然有充足的機會抓住時機，將這種動態資產添加到他們的投資組合中。

Experts ground their forecasts in the impending halving event and its historical correlation with Bitcoin bull runs. The halving is an intrinsic feature of Bitcoin's algorithm, dictating that the reward miners receive for validating transactions is halved every 210,000 blocks until the finite supply of 21 million Bitcoin is exhausted.

專家的預測是基於即將到來的減半事件及其與比特幣牛市的歷史相關性。減半是比特幣演算法的一個固有特徵，這意味著礦工驗證交易所獲得的獎勵每 21 萬個區塊就會減半，直到 2,100 萬個比特幣的有限供應耗盡。

A meticulous examination of the past three bull markets reveals a striking pattern: halvings occur in a four-year cycle, with prices initiating a gradual ascent approximately 12 months prior to the event and accelerating over the following 12 months. With the next halving anticipated in April of this year, we find ourselves in the midst of a burgeoning bull market. Bitcoin's recent突破 of its previous record further reinforces this belief, igniting hope for continued growth and amplified profits in the near future.

對過去三個多頭市場的仔細研究揭示了一個驚人的模式：減半以四年為一個週期，價格在減半發生前約 12 個月開始逐漸上漲，並在接下來的 12 個月內加速上漲。隨著今年四月的下一次減半，我們發現自己正處於蓬勃發展的牛市之中。比特幣最近突破了先前的記錄，進一步強化了這一信念，點燃了在不久的將來持續增長和擴大利潤的希望。

However, while the correlation between Bitcoin's halving events and bull runs may not be merely coincidental and holds the potential to usher in a new era of prosperity for the cryptocurrency, investors must exercise caution against relying solely on this assumption when making investment decisions. The crypto market is characterized by extreme volatility, susceptible to a myriad of external factors that can influence its trajectory.

然而，雖然比特幣減半事件與多頭市場之間的相關性可能不僅僅是巧合，並且有可能迎來加密貨幣繁榮的新時代，但投資者在做出投資決策時必須謹慎行事，不要僅僅依賴這一假設。加密貨幣市場的特徵是極度波動，容易受到多種可能影響其軌跡的外部因素的影響。

Navigating the Crypto Landscape

探索加密貨幣領域

At this juncture, Bitcoin's outlook appears promising, buoyed by the SEC's recent approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the consequent surge in institutional participation. Yet, as history has taught us time and again, the tides can turn dramatically at any moment.

目前，受 SEC 最近批准現貨比特幣 ETF 以及隨之而來的機構參與激增的提振，比特幣的前景似乎充滿希望。然而，正如歷史一次又一次告訴我們的那樣，潮流隨時可能發生戲劇性的轉變。

The decision of whether to invest in Bitcoin at this stage transcends mere price predictions and the pursuit of quick gains. It necessitates a comprehensive consideration of the complexities of cryptocurrency investing. To embark on this journey wisely, investors must develop robust strategies informed by thorough market research, carefully assess their risk tolerance, and embrace a long-term perspective. This holistic approach will illuminate whether supplementing their investment portfolios with Bitcoin aligns with their financial goals.

現階段是否投資比特幣的決定超越了單純的價格預測和追求快速收益。需要全面考慮加密貨幣投資的複雜性。為了明智地踏上這趟旅程，投資人必須在徹底的市場研究的基礎上製定穩健的策略，仔細評估自己的風險承受能力，並抱持長遠的眼光。這種整體方法將闡明以比特幣補充他們的投資組合是否符合他們的財務目標。

Bernard Van Isacker

伯納德·範·艾薩克

Chief Editor, Side-Line Magazine

《副線》雜誌主編