比特幣在動盪中停滯不前，減半接近

比特幣最近的價格波動引發了有關潛在熊市的討論。目前，比特幣正在經歷市場整合，它既沒有延續也沒有逆向長期趨勢。地緣政治緊張局勢，包括伊朗-以色列衝突和即將到來的減半事件，是造成波動的因素。歷史數據表明，正如之前牛市中所觀察到的那樣，這種波動在減半前是典型的。

Bitcoin Consolidates Amidst Uncertainty, Halving Looms

比特幣在不確定性中整合，減半迫在眉睫

In the ever-evolving cryptocurrency landscape, Bitcoin (BTC), the colossal digital asset, has once again exhibited its volatile nature. After reaching an all-time high of nearly $74,000 in March, BTC has experienced a precipitous decline, hovering around $61,655.

在不斷變化的加密貨幣格局中，比特幣（BTC）這種龐大的數位資產再次展現出其波動性。 BTC 在 3 月觸及近 74,000 美元的歷史高點後，經歷了急劇下跌，徘徊在 61,655 美元附近。

According to CoinGecko data, BTC is currently over 18% below its record high, prompting speculation about a potential bear market. However, experts emphasize that Bitcoin is currently in a consolidating market, characterized by investor indecision and a lack of sustained trends.

根據 CoinGecko 的數據，比特幣目前比歷史高點低了 18% 以上，引發了人們對潛在熊市的猜測。然而，專家強調，比特幣目前正處於整合市場，其特點是投資者猶豫不決且缺乏持續趨勢。

Geopolitical events have undoubtedly played a role in Bitcoin's recent downturn. Last weekend's reports of a potential Iranian attack on its adversaries sent shockwaves through the markets, leading to a sell-off in Bitcoin. The liquidation of significant short positions exacerbated the decline, compounded by Tehran's subsequent launch of drones and missiles at Israel.

地緣政治事件無疑在比特幣近期的低迷中發揮了作用。上週末有關伊朗可能對其對手發動攻擊的報導給市場帶來了衝擊，導致比特幣遭到拋售。大量空頭部位的清算加劇了跌勢，德黑蘭隨後向以色列發射無人機和飛彈更是雪上加霜。

"The downturn in prices is influenced by several factors," explained James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares. "Tax harvesting in the U.S. is one, while the Middle East crisis is clearly the other."

CoinShares 研究主管 James Butterfill 解釋說：“價格下跌受到多種因素的影響。” “美國的稅收收割是其中之一，而中東危機顯然是另一個。”

Butterfill further noted that the geopolitical tensions are expected to drive inflation due to rising oil prices, indicating a sustained high-interest rate environment. Historically, Bitcoin has exhibited a correlation with risk-on assets, tending to fluctuate with market sentiment. During periods of geopolitical uncertainty, investors typically seek safe havens in more stable assets, such as gold.

巴特菲爾進一步指出，由於油價上漲，地緣政治緊張局勢預計將推動通膨，這表明持續的高利率環境。從歷史上看，比特幣與風險資產表現出相關性，往往會隨著市場情緒而波動。在地緣政治不確定時期，投資者通常會尋求黃金等更穩定資產的避風港。

Analysts at CryptoQuant observe that investors are withdrawing from Bitcoin in anticipation of the upcoming halving, a major event in the cryptocurrency's lifecycle. The halving, scheduled for this weekend, will significantly reduce miner rewards, thereby limiting the supply of new coins entering the market.

CryptoQuant 的分析師觀察到，投資者正在從比特幣中撤出，因為他們預計即將到來的減半是加密貨幣生命週期中的重大事件。定於本週末進行的減半將大幅減少礦工獎勵，從而限制進入市場的新代幣供應。

"Investors are waiting out the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East before re-engaging with the market," CryptoQuant analysts stated.

CryptoQuant 分析師表示：“投資者正在等待中東地緣政治緊張局勢結束，然後才能重新參與市場。”

Prior to the last halving in 2020, CryptoQuant research indicated similar market volatility. Blockstream CEO Adam Back concurred, emphasizing that the current price fluctuations are consistent with historical patterns.

在 2020 年最後一次減半之前，CryptoQuant 研究顯示市場也出現了類似的波動。 Blockstream 執行長 Adam Back 對此表示同意，並強調目前的價格波動與歷史模式一致。

"If anything, this pre-halving run-up has been lower volatility than prior cycles' bull runs," Back tweeted.

巴克在推特上表示：“如果有什麼不同的話，那就是這次減半前的上漲波動性低於之前週期的牛市。”

Back's analysis suggests that Bitcoin's recent behavior mirrors its typical four-year cyclical pattern. Despite the uncertainty, experts remain confident that Bitcoin will continue to establish itself as a significant digital asset in the long term.

巴克的分析表明，比特幣最近的行為反映了其典型的四年周期模式。儘管存在不確定性，但專家們仍然相信，從長遠來看，比特幣將繼續成為重要的數位資產。