比特币在动荡中停滞不前，减半临近

比特币最近的价格波动引发了有关潜在熊市的讨论。目前，比特币正在经历市场整合，它既没有延续也没有逆向长期趋势。地缘政治紧张局势，包括伊朗-以色列冲突和即将到来的减半事件，是造成波动的因素。历史数据表明，正如之前牛市中所观察到的那样，这种波动在减半前是典型的。

Bitcoin Consolidates Amidst Uncertainty, Halving Looms

比特币在不确定性中整合，减半迫在眉睫

In the ever-evolving cryptocurrency landscape, Bitcoin (BTC), the colossal digital asset, has once again exhibited its volatile nature. After reaching an all-time high of nearly $74,000 in March, BTC has experienced a precipitous decline, hovering around $61,655.

在不断变化的加密货币格局中，比特币（BTC）这种巨大的数字资产再次展现出其波动性。 BTC 在 3 月份触及近 74,000 美元的历史高点后，经历了急剧下跌，徘徊在 61,655 美元附近。

According to CoinGecko data, BTC is currently over 18% below its record high, prompting speculation about a potential bear market. However, experts emphasize that Bitcoin is currently in a consolidating market, characterized by investor indecision and a lack of sustained trends.

根据 CoinGecko 的数据，比特币目前比历史高点低了 18% 以上，引发了人们对潜在熊市的猜测。然而，专家强调，比特币目前正处于整合市场，其特点是投资者犹豫不决且缺乏持续趋势。

Geopolitical events have undoubtedly played a role in Bitcoin's recent downturn. Last weekend's reports of a potential Iranian attack on its adversaries sent shockwaves through the markets, leading to a sell-off in Bitcoin. The liquidation of significant short positions exacerbated the decline, compounded by Tehran's subsequent launch of drones and missiles at Israel.

地缘政治事件无疑在比特币近期的低迷中发挥了作用。上周末有关伊朗可能对其对手发动袭击的报道给市场带来了冲击，导致比特币遭到抛售。大量空头头寸的清算加剧了跌势，德黑兰随后向以色列发射无人机和导弹更是雪上加霜。

"The downturn in prices is influenced by several factors," explained James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares. "Tax harvesting in the U.S. is one, while the Middle East crisis is clearly the other."

CoinShares 研究主管 James Butterfill 解释说：“价格下跌受到多种因素的影响。” “美国的税收收割是其中之一，而中东危机显然是另一个。”

Butterfill further noted that the geopolitical tensions are expected to drive inflation due to rising oil prices, indicating a sustained high-interest rate environment. Historically, Bitcoin has exhibited a correlation with risk-on assets, tending to fluctuate with market sentiment. During periods of geopolitical uncertainty, investors typically seek safe havens in more stable assets, such as gold.

巴特菲尔进一步指出，由于油价上涨，地缘政治紧张局势预计将推动通胀，这表明持续的高利率环境。从历史上看，比特币与风险资产表现出相关性，往往会随着市场情绪而波动。在地缘政治不确定时期，投资者通常会寻求黄金等更稳定资产的避风港。

Analysts at CryptoQuant observe that investors are withdrawing from Bitcoin in anticipation of the upcoming halving, a major event in the cryptocurrency's lifecycle. The halving, scheduled for this weekend, will significantly reduce miner rewards, thereby limiting the supply of new coins entering the market.

CryptoQuant 的分析师观察到，投资者正在从比特币中撤出，因为他们预计即将到来的减半是加密货币生命周期中的重大事件。定于本周末进行的减半将大幅减少矿工奖励，从而限制进入市场的新代币供应。

"Investors are waiting out the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East before re-engaging with the market," CryptoQuant analysts stated.

CryptoQuant 分析师表示：“投资者正在等待中东地缘政治紧张局势结束，然后才能重新参与市场。”

Prior to the last halving in 2020, CryptoQuant research indicated similar market volatility. Blockstream CEO Adam Back concurred, emphasizing that the current price fluctuations are consistent with historical patterns.

在 2020 年最后一次减半之前，CryptoQuant 研究表明市场也出现了类似的波动。 Blockstream 首席执行官 Adam Back 对此表示同意，并强调当前的价格波动与历史模式一致。

"If anything, this pre-halving run-up has been lower volatility than prior cycles' bull runs," Back tweeted.

巴克在推特上表示：“如果说有什么不同的话，那就是这次减半前的上涨波动性低于之前周期的牛市。”

Back's analysis suggests that Bitcoin's recent behavior mirrors its typical four-year cyclical pattern. Despite the uncertainty, experts remain confident that Bitcoin will continue to establish itself as a significant digital asset in the long term.

巴克的分析表明，比特币最近的行为反映了其典型的四年周期模式。尽管存在不确定性，但专家们仍然相信，从长远来看，比特币将继续成为一种重要的数字资产。