比特幣的停滯：是強還是弱？

比特幣目前鏈上轉帳量的停滯引發了對其潛在優勢或劣勢的質疑。儘管達到歷史新高，但缺乏動向表明持有者在放棄資產方面猶豫不決。經濟活動低迷與物價飛漲形成鮮明對比，可能顯示人們對未來收益抱持強烈信心，也可能顯示市場流動性潛在疲軟。隨著投資者買入並等待更高的價格，市場的彈性將受到考驗，從而揭示這段休眠期是潛在強勢的跡象還是潛在低迷的前兆。

Is Bitcoin's Torpor a Sign of Strength or Weakness?

比特幣的遲鈍是強還是弱的標誌？

Despite Bitcoin's ascent to record highs north of $70,000, the blockchain's underlying economic activity is painting a contrasting picture of a marked slowdown compared to the frenzied pace of 2021's bull market.

儘管比特幣已升至 70,000 美元以上的歷史新高，但與 2021 年牛市的瘋狂步伐相比，區塊鏈的基礎經濟活動正在描繪出明顯放緩的鮮明景象。

Holders Dig In: Waiting for the Promised Land

持有者積極參與：等待應許之地

Data from Glassnode suggests a robust holding sentiment among investors, with many seemingly content to wait for even loftier prices before considering parting with their precious Bitcoins. Blockware Solutions analysts note in their latest missive that the average on-chain transfer volume in U.S. dollars remains far below the peaks witnessed during 2021. "Average on-chain transfer volume is well below the 2021 bull market peak. Hardly any value is being moved on-chain," they observe, underscoring the reluctance of holders to sell at current levels.

Glassnode 的數據顯示，投資者的持有情緒強勁，許多人似乎滿足於等待更高的價格，然後再考慮放棄寶貴的比特幣。 Blockware Solutions 分析師在最新的信中指出，以美元計算的平均鏈上轉帳量仍遠低於 2021 年的峰值。“平均鏈上轉帳量遠低於 2021 年牛市峰值。幾乎沒有任何價值被轉移”在鏈上，」他們觀察到，這強調了持有者不願意以目前的水平出售。

Volume Dwindles: Where's the Action?

成交量減少：行動在哪裡？

Glassnode's data, tracking the dollar value of Bitcoin transferred on-chain, reveals that both the seven-day and 14-day average mean transfer volumes currently languish below $200,000—a far cry from the $1 million-plus levels seen in 2021. This on-chain volume decline is attributed in part to the rising popularity of Nasdaq-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have siphoned spot volume away from the blockchain.

Glassnode 的數據追蹤了鏈上傳輸的比特幣的美元價值，顯示 7 天和 14 天的平均傳輸量目前均低於 20 萬美元，與 2021 年超過 100 萬美元的水平相去甚遠。環比交易量下降的部分原因是納斯達克上市的現貨比特幣ETF 越來越受歡迎，這已經從區塊鏈上吸走了現貨交易量。

HODLers Hold Fast: Weathering the Storm

持有者堅守：渡過難關

Other indicators also point to a steadfast 'hodl' mentality among investors who have endured the trials and tribulations of the 2022 bear market. The percentage of Bitcoin supply that was last active between three and five years ago is on the rise. Analysts are predicting that Bitcoin's price could soar into six figures in the months ahead, with some setting their sights on targets above $150,000.

其他指標也表明，經歷 2022 年熊市考驗和磨難的投資者中存在堅定的「hodl」心態。最近一次活躍的比特幣供應量是在三到五年前，所佔的比例正在上升。分析師預測，未來幾個月比特幣的價格可能會飆升至六位數，其中一些將目標定為 15 萬美元以上。

Low Volume, High Expectations: What's Next?

產量低，期望高：下一步是什麼？

"Once we see the price really start to move, that's when on-chain volume will surge. Older coins will move to exchanges to be sold. Until then, low on-chain volume is a sign of supply-side illiquidity," explain Blockware analysts.

「一旦我們看到價格真正開始變動，鏈上交易量就會激增。較舊的代幣將轉移到交易所出售。在那之前，鏈上交易量低是供應方流動性不足的標誌，」Blockware解釋道分析師。

As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $67,700, up 5% over the past 24 hours. The broader cryptocurrency market, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 Index, has also witnessed a 5% uptick, reflecting a cautiously optimistic sentiment across the sector.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣交易價格為 67,700 美元，在過去 24 小時內上漲了 5%。以 CoinDesk 20 指數衡量的更廣泛的加密貨幣市場也上漲了 5%，反映出整個產業的謹慎樂觀情緒。