比特币的停滞：是强还是弱？

比特币目前链上转账量的停滞引发了对其潜在优势或劣势的质疑。尽管达到历史新高，但缺乏动向表明持有者在放弃资产方面犹豫不决。经济活动低迷与物价飞涨形成鲜明对比，可能表明人们对未来收益抱有强烈信心，也可能表明市场流动性潜在疲软。随着投资者买入并等待更高的价格，市场的弹性将受到考验，从而揭示这段休眠期是潜在强势的迹象还是潜在低迷的前兆。

Is Bitcoin's Torpor a Sign of Strength or Weakness?

比特币的迟钝是强还是弱的标志？

Despite Bitcoin's ascent to record highs north of $70,000, the blockchain's underlying economic activity is painting a contrasting picture of a marked slowdown compared to the frenzied pace of 2021's bull market.

尽管比特币已升至 70,000 美元以上的历史新高，但与 2021 年牛市的疯狂步伐相比，区块链的基础经济活动正在描绘出明显放缓的鲜明景象。

Holders Dig In: Waiting for the Promised Land

持有人积极参与：等待应许之地

Data from Glassnode suggests a robust holding sentiment among investors, with many seemingly content to wait for even loftier prices before considering parting with their precious Bitcoins. Blockware Solutions analysts note in their latest missive that the average on-chain transfer volume in U.S. dollars remains far below the peaks witnessed during 2021. "Average on-chain transfer volume is well below the 2021 bull market peak. Hardly any value is being moved on-chain," they observe, underscoring the reluctance of holders to sell at current levels.

Glassnode 的数据显示，投资者的持有情绪强劲，许多人似乎满足于等待更高的价格，然后再考虑放弃宝贵的比特币。 Blockware Solutions 分析师在最新的信中指出，以美元计算的平均链上转账量仍远低于 2021 年的峰值。“平均链上转账量远低于 2021 年牛市峰值。几乎没有任何价值被转移”在链上，”他们观察到，这强调了持有者不愿意以目前的水平出售。

Volume Dwindles: Where's the Action?

成交量减少：行动在哪里？

Glassnode's data, tracking the dollar value of Bitcoin transferred on-chain, reveals that both the seven-day and 14-day average mean transfer volumes currently languish below $200,000—a far cry from the $1 million-plus levels seen in 2021. This on-chain volume decline is attributed in part to the rising popularity of Nasdaq-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have siphoned spot volume away from the blockchain.

Glassnode 的数据跟踪了链上传输的比特币的美元价值，显示 7 天和 14 天的平均传输量目前均低于 20 万美元，与 2021 年超过 100 万美元的水平相去甚远。环比交易量下降的部分原因是纳斯达克上市的现货比特币 ETF 越来越受欢迎，这已经从区块链上吸走了现货交易量。

HODLers Hold Fast: Weathering the Storm

持有者坚守：渡过难关

Other indicators also point to a steadfast 'hodl' mentality among investors who have endured the trials and tribulations of the 2022 bear market. The percentage of Bitcoin supply that was last active between three and five years ago is on the rise. Analysts are predicting that Bitcoin's price could soar into six figures in the months ahead, with some setting their sights on targets above $150,000.

其他指标也表明，经历过 2022 年熊市考验和磨难的投资者中存在坚定的“hodl”心态。最近一次活跃的比特币供应量是在三到五年前，所占的比例正在上升。分析师预测，未来几个月比特币的价格可能飙升至六位数，其中一些人将目标定为 15 万美元以上。

Low Volume, High Expectations: What's Next?

产量低，期望高：下一步是什么？

"Once we see the price really start to move, that's when on-chain volume will surge. Older coins will move to exchanges to be sold. Until then, low on-chain volume is a sign of supply-side illiquidity," explain Blockware analysts.

“一旦我们看到价格真正开始变动，链上交易量就会激增。较旧的代币将转移到交易所出售。在那之前，链上交易量低是供应方流动性不足的标志，”Blockware 解释道分析师。

As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $67,700, up 5% over the past 24 hours. The broader cryptocurrency market, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 Index, has also witnessed a 5% uptick, reflecting a cautiously optimistic sentiment across the sector.

截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格为 67,700 美元，在过去 24 小时内上涨了 5%。以 CoinDesk 20 指数衡量的更广泛的加密货币市场也上涨了 5%，反映出整个行业的谨慎乐观情绪。