比特幣的過山車：最近的失誤和市場影響因素

由於聯準會決定反對降息、美元指數走強以及地緣政治緊張局勢升級，比特幣價格暴跌。比特幣價值下跌的特徵是比特幣 ETP 交易量減少和投資者風險厭惡增加。儘管有短期波動，但長期通膨擔憂繼續支持比特幣作為對沖法定貨幣貶值的潛力。

The Crypto Market's Volatile Ride: Bitcoin's Recent Stumbles and Influencing Factors

加密貨幣市場的波動：比特幣最近的失誤與影響因素

Market Overview

市場概況

The cryptocurrency market has been witnessing a fluctuating trajectory, with Bitcoin, the flagship digital asset, experiencing a recent decline. This volatility has been attributed to a confluence of factors, including dwindling expectations for interest rate cuts, a strengthening US Dollar Index, and escalating geopolitical tensions.

加密貨幣市場一直處於波動軌跡，旗艦數位資產比特幣最近經歷了下跌。這種波動是由多種因素造成的，包括降息預期減弱、美元指數走強以及地緣政治緊張局勢升級。

Decline in Bitcoin Prices

比特幣價格下跌

Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin's price has exhibited a 1.96% increase, currently hovering around US$62,484. However, the asset's overall trajectory has been characterized by notable downturns.

過去24小時，比特幣價格上漲1.96%，目前徘徊在62,484美元附近。然而，該資產的整體軌跡已顯著下滑。

Factors Influencing Bitcoin's Decline

影響比特幣下跌的因素

1. Diminished Rate Cut Expectations:

1. 降息預期減弱：

The likelihood of interest rate cuts has waned, a prospect that has weighed heavily on Bitcoin's performance. US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled that maintaining current interest rates remains the preferred policy stance rather than lowering them. This has dampened investor optimism, as lower rates tend to favor riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.

降息的可能性已經減弱，這前景嚴重影響了比特幣的表現。聯準會主席鮑威爾表示，維持當前利率仍然是首選的政策立場，而不是降低利率。這削弱了投資者的樂觀情緒，因為較低的利率往往有利於加密貨幣等風險較高的資產。

2. US Dollar Strength:

2. 美元走強：

The US Dollar Index, which gauges the dollar's performance against a basket of global currencies, has experienced a surge of approximately 4.38% since January. This rise reflects a strengthening dollar, increasing the attractiveness of bonds and fixed-income investments. The robust dollar has made Bitcoin, a dollar-denominated asset, less alluring to investors.

衡量美元兌一籃子全球貨幣表現的美元指數自 1 月以來飆升約 4.38%。這一上漲反映出美元走強，增加了債券和固定收益投資的吸引力。強勢美元使得比特幣這種以美元計價的資產對投資者的吸引力降低。

3. Geopolitical Tensions:

3. 地緣政治緊張局勢：

Heightened geopolitical unrest, particularly the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East, has instilled a sense of caution among investors. Risk aversion has led to a shift away from riskier assets like Bitcoin, further contributing to its price decline.

地緣政治動盪加劇，特別是中東持續的動盪，給投資者帶來了謹慎的感覺。風險規避導致人們放棄比特幣等風險較高的資產，進一步導致其價格下跌。

Bitcoin's Historical Volatility

比特幣的歷史波動性

Renowned Bitcoin expert Rennick Palley, founder of Stratos, has observed a consistent trend of volatility in Bitcoin's price movements preceding block reward halvings. He anticipates continued headwinds for Bitcoin in the near term, with potential sell-offs not only within the cryptocurrency sector but also in equity markets due to concerns over persistent inflation and the staggered pace of rate reductions this year.

Stratos 創辦人、著名比特幣專家 Rennick Palley 觀察到，在區塊獎勵減半之前，比特幣價格走勢呈現一致的波動趨勢。他預計比特幣在短期內將繼續面臨阻力，由於對持續通膨和今年降息步伐的擔憂，不僅加密貨幣領域可能出現拋售，股市也可能出現拋售。

Long-Term Outlook and Technical Analysis

長期展望與技術分析

Palley suggests that Bitcoin's performance may align with risk assets in the short term, but in the long run, an inflationary environment could bode well for the cryptocurrency. Sustained higher inflation could favor Bitcoin, which is often perceived as a hedge against excessive money printing by central banks.

帕利表示，比特幣的表現可能在短期內與風險資產保持一致，但從長遠來看，通膨環境可能對加密貨幣來說是個好兆頭。持續走高的通膨可能有利於比特幣，比特幣通常被視為對沖央行過度印鈔的手段。

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin's support level currently stands at US$60,672, while its resistance level is at US$62,716. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a value of 60.17, while the Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the past 20 days is 61,694. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggests a bullish trend for Bitcoin.

從技術分析角度來看，目前比特幣的支撐位為60,672美元，阻力位在62,716美元。相對強弱指數 (RSI) 值為 60.17，而過去 20 天的簡單移動平均線 (SMA) 為 61,694。移動平均線收斂分歧（MACD）顯示比特幣的看漲趨勢。

Conclusion

結論

Bitcoin's recent price fluctuations have been influenced by a combination of factors, including the diminished likelihood of interest rate cuts, a strengthening US Dollar, and heightened geopolitical uncertainties. While concerns over persisting inflation and the pace of rate reductions may continue to impact Bitcoin's performance, long-term investors may view an inflationary environment as potentially favorable for the cryptocurrency's value.

比特幣近期的價格波動受到多種因素的影響，包括降息可能性降低、美元走強以及地緣政治不確定性加劇。儘管對持續通膨和降息步伐的擔憂可能會繼續影響比特幣的表現，但長期投資者可能認為通膨環境可能有利於加密貨幣的價值。