比特币的过山车：最近的失误和市场影响因素

由于美联储决定反对降息、美元指数走强以及地缘政治紧张局势升级，比特币价格暴跌。比特币价值下跌的特点是比特币 ETP 交易量减少和投资者风险厌恶情绪增加。尽管存在短期波动，但长期通胀担忧继续支持比特币作为对冲法定货币贬值的潜力。

The Crypto Market's Volatile Ride: Bitcoin's Recent Stumbles and Influencing Factors

加密货币市场的波动：比特币最近的失误和影响因素

Market Overview

市场概况

The cryptocurrency market has been witnessing a fluctuating trajectory, with Bitcoin, the flagship digital asset, experiencing a recent decline. This volatility has been attributed to a confluence of factors, including dwindling expectations for interest rate cuts, a strengthening US Dollar Index, and escalating geopolitical tensions.

加密货币市场一直处于波动轨迹，旗舰数字资产比特币最近经历了下跌。这种波动是由多种因素造成的，包括降息预期减弱、美元指数走强以及地缘政治紧张局势升级。

Decline in Bitcoin Prices

比特币价格下跌

Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin's price has exhibited a 1.96% increase, currently hovering around US$62,484. However, the asset's overall trajectory has been characterized by notable downturns.

过去24小时，比特币价格上涨1.96%，目前徘徊在62,484美元附近。然而，该资产的整体轨迹已显着下滑。

Factors Influencing Bitcoin's Decline

影响比特币下跌的因素

1. Diminished Rate Cut Expectations:

1. 降息预期减弱：

The likelihood of interest rate cuts has waned, a prospect that has weighed heavily on Bitcoin's performance. US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled that maintaining current interest rates remains the preferred policy stance rather than lowering them. This has dampened investor optimism, as lower rates tend to favor riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.

降息的可能性已经减弱，这一前景严重影响了比特币的表现。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，维持当前利率仍然是首选的政策立场，而不是降低利率。这削弱了投资者的乐观情绪，因为较低的利率往往有利于加密货币等风险较高的资产。

2. US Dollar Strength:

2. 美元走强：

The US Dollar Index, which gauges the dollar's performance against a basket of global currencies, has experienced a surge of approximately 4.38% since January. This rise reflects a strengthening dollar, increasing the attractiveness of bonds and fixed-income investments. The robust dollar has made Bitcoin, a dollar-denominated asset, less alluring to investors.

衡量美元兑一篮子全球货币表现的美元指数自 1 月份以来已飙升约 4.38%。这一上涨反映出美元走强，增加了债券和固定收益投资的吸引力。强势美元使得比特币这种以美元计价的资产对投资者的吸引力降低。

3. Geopolitical Tensions:

3. 地缘政治紧张局势：

Heightened geopolitical unrest, particularly the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East, has instilled a sense of caution among investors. Risk aversion has led to a shift away from riskier assets like Bitcoin, further contributing to its price decline.

地缘政治动荡加剧，特别是中东持续的动荡，给投资者带来了谨慎的感觉。风险规避导致人们放弃比特币等风险较高的资产，进一步导致其价格下跌。

Bitcoin's Historical Volatility

比特币的历史波动性

Renowned Bitcoin expert Rennick Palley, founder of Stratos, has observed a consistent trend of volatility in Bitcoin's price movements preceding block reward halvings. He anticipates continued headwinds for Bitcoin in the near term, with potential sell-offs not only within the cryptocurrency sector but also in equity markets due to concerns over persistent inflation and the staggered pace of rate reductions this year.

Stratos 创始人、著名比特币专家 Rennick Palley 观察到，在区块奖励减半之前，比特币价格走势呈现出一致的波动趋势。他预计比特币在短期内将继续面临阻力，由于对持续通胀和今年降息步伐的担忧，不仅加密货币领域可能出现抛售，股市也可能出现抛售。

Long-Term Outlook and Technical Analysis

长期展望和技术分析

Palley suggests that Bitcoin's performance may align with risk assets in the short term, but in the long run, an inflationary environment could bode well for the cryptocurrency. Sustained higher inflation could favor Bitcoin, which is often perceived as a hedge against excessive money printing by central banks.

帕利表示，比特币的表现可能在短期内与风险资产保持一致，但从长远来看，通胀环境可能对加密货币来说是个好兆头。持续走高的通胀可能有利于比特币，比特币通常被视为对冲央行过度印钞的手段。

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin's support level currently stands at US$60,672, while its resistance level is at US$62,716. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a value of 60.17, while the Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the past 20 days is 61,694. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggests a bullish trend for Bitcoin.

从技术分析角度来看，目前比特币的支撑位为60,672美元，阻力位为62,716美元。相对强弱指数 (RSI) 值为 60.17，而过去 20 天的简单移动平均线 (SMA) 为 61,694。移动平均线收敛分歧（MACD）表明比特币的看涨趋势。

Conclusion

结论

Bitcoin's recent price fluctuations have been influenced by a combination of factors, including the diminished likelihood of interest rate cuts, a strengthening US Dollar, and heightened geopolitical uncertainties. While concerns over persisting inflation and the pace of rate reductions may continue to impact Bitcoin's performance, long-term investors may view an inflationary environment as potentially favorable for the cryptocurrency's value.

比特币近期的价格波动受到多种因素的影响，包括降息可能性降低、美元走强以及地缘政治不确定性加剧。尽管对持续通胀和降息步伐的担忧可能会继续影响比特币的表现，但长期投资者可能认为通胀环境可能有利于加密货币的价值。