由於美國政策分析師預測將出現阻力，比特幣儲備賠率下降

美國將比特幣納入其金融儲備的前景仍然備受爭議。許多專家認為可能性很小

The prospect of the United States incorporating Bitcoin into its financial reserves has sparked widespread discussion within the crypto community. While some experts remain optimistic about the possibility, others present a more skeptical outlook.

美國將比特幣納入金融儲備的前景引發了加密社群的廣泛討論。儘管一些專家對這種可能性仍然持樂觀態度，但其他專家則持更懷疑的態度。

Prediction platforms and analysts offer contrasting views on the likelihood of Bitcoin entering the US reserve strategy. On Polymarket, users assign only a 29% probability that President-elect Donald Trump will introduce a Bitcoin reserve within his first 100 days in office. This marks a steep drop from post-election optimism, where odds reached 60%.

預測平台和分析師對比特幣進入美國儲備策略的可能性提出了截然不同的看法。在 Polymarket 上，用戶認為當選總統唐納德·川普在上任 100 天內引入比特幣儲備的可能性只有 29%。這標誌著選舉後樂觀情緒急劇下降，當時的勝算高達 60%。

Meanwhile, prediction platform Kalshi places the odds of Bitcoin becoming part of the US financial reserves by January 2026 at 56%. This timeframe aligns with the platform's users predicting a 55% chance of Bitcoin being legalized in the US by the same date.

同時，預測平台 Kalshi 認為，到 2026 年 1 月，比特幣成為美國金融儲備一部分的可能性為 56%。該時間框架與該平台用戶預測的比特幣在同一日期在美國合法化的可能性為 55% 的可能性一致。

Proponents of Bitcoin as a reserve asset envision it as a natural complement to existing reserves, such as gold and oil. They highlight Bitcoin's scarcity, divisibility, and portability as valuable qualities for a reserve currency.

比特幣作為儲備資產的支持者將其視為黃金和石油等現有儲備的自然補充。他們強調比特幣的稀缺性、可分割性和可移植性是儲備貨幣的寶貴品質。

However, critics argue that political resistance and current economic conditions make a Bitcoin reserve unlikely. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, doubts the feasibility of the US adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset under Trump’s administration.

然而，批評者認為，政治阻力和當前的經濟狀況使得比特幣儲備不太可能。 CryptoQuant 執行長 Ki Young Ju 對川普政府下美國採用比特幣作為儲備資產的可行性表示懷疑。

Ju suggests that such a shift would only occur if the nation's global economic dominance faced a significant threat. He draws parallels between today’s Bitcoin advocates and past campaigns for a return to the gold standard.

鞠表示，只有當國家的全球經濟主導地位面臨重大威脅時，這種轉變才會發生。他將當今的比特幣倡導者與過去的回歸金本位運動進行了比較。

In both cases, these efforts aimed to position alternative assets as solutions to economic uncertainties. However, historical trends suggest resistance to single-asset reliance.

在這兩種情況下，這些努力都旨在將另類資產定位為經濟不確定性的解決方案。然而，歷史趨勢顯示對單一資產依賴的抵制。

For instance, calls to reinstate the gold standard in the late 1990s were dismissed, with the US opting to innovate its way out of economic challenges. Ju predicts Bitcoin may face similar pushback unless the country’s economic standing weakens.

例如，20 世紀 90 年代末期恢復金本位的呼聲被駁回，美國選擇以創新方式擺脫經濟挑戰。 Ju預測，除非該國的經濟地位減弱，否則比特幣可能會面臨類似的阻力。

“If Trump succeeds in showcasing U.S. economic resilience, reinforcing the dollar’s supremacy, and boosting his approval ratings, it’s unclear if he would maintain the strong pro-Bitcoin stance he demonstrated during his campaign. He could easily step back from his Bitcoin advocacy, citing changing priorities, without alienating his voter base,” Ju stated.

「如果川普成功展現了美國經濟的韌性，鞏固了美元的霸主地位，並提高了他的支持率，目前還不清楚他是否會維持他在競選期間表現出的強烈支持比特幣的立場。他可以輕鬆地放棄對比特幣的支持，以改變優先事項為由，而不會疏遠他的選民基礎。

Despite skepticism, some experts champion Bitcoin’s potential role in reshaping global finance. Mathew Sigel of VanEck recently argued that the US could reduce its national debt by up to 36% by 2050 through adopting a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

儘管有懷疑，一些專家還是支持比特幣在重塑全球金融方面的潛在作用。 VanEck 的 Mathew Sigel 最近認為，透過採用戰略比特幣儲備，美國到 2050 年可以將其國債減少高達 36%。

Sigel envisions Bitcoin becoming a leading settlement currency in global trade, particularly for nations seeking to bypass U.S. sanctions.

Sigel 預計比特幣將成為全球貿易中的主要結算貨幣，特別是對於尋求繞過美國制裁的國家。