由于美国政策分析师预测将出现阻力，比特币储备赔率下降

美国将比特币纳入其金融储备的前景仍然备受争议。许多专家认为可能性很小

The prospect of the United States incorporating Bitcoin into its financial reserves has sparked widespread discussion within the crypto community. While some experts remain optimistic about the possibility, others present a more skeptical outlook.

美国将比特币纳入金融储备的前景引发了加密社区的广泛讨论。尽管一些专家对这种可能性仍然持乐观态度，但其他专家则持更为怀疑的态度。

Prediction platforms and analysts offer contrasting views on the likelihood of Bitcoin entering the US reserve strategy. On Polymarket, users assign only a 29% probability that President-elect Donald Trump will introduce a Bitcoin reserve within his first 100 days in office. This marks a steep drop from post-election optimism, where odds reached 60%.

预测平台和分析师对比特币进入美国储备策略的可能性提出了截然不同的看法。在 Polymarket 上，用户认为当选总统唐纳德·特朗普在上任 100 天内引入比特币储备的可能性只有 29%。这标志着选举后乐观情绪急剧下降，当时的胜算高达 60%。

Meanwhile, prediction platform Kalshi places the odds of Bitcoin becoming part of the US financial reserves by January 2026 at 56%. This timeframe aligns with the platform's users predicting a 55% chance of Bitcoin being legalized in the US by the same date.

与此同时，预测平台 Kalshi 认为，到 2026 年 1 月，比特币成为美国金融储备一部分的可能性为 56%。该时间框架与该平台用户预测的比特币在同一日期在美国合法化的可能性为 55% 的可能性一致。

Proponents of Bitcoin as a reserve asset envision it as a natural complement to existing reserves, such as gold and oil. They highlight Bitcoin's scarcity, divisibility, and portability as valuable qualities for a reserve currency.

比特币作为储备资产的支持者将其视为对黄金和石油等现有储备的自然补充。他们强调比特币的稀缺性、可分割性和可移植性是储备货币的宝贵品质。

However, critics argue that political resistance and current economic conditions make a Bitcoin reserve unlikely. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, doubts the feasibility of the US adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset under Trump’s administration.

然而，批评者认为，政治阻力和当前的经济状况使得比特币储备不太可能。 CryptoQuant 首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 对特朗普政府下美国采用比特币作为储备资产的可行性表示怀疑。

Ju suggests that such a shift would only occur if the nation's global economic dominance faced a significant threat. He draws parallels between today’s Bitcoin advocates and past campaigns for a return to the gold standard.

鞠表示，只有当国家的全球经济主导地位面临重大威胁时，这种转变才会发生。他将当今的比特币倡导者与过去的回归金本位运动进行了比较。

In both cases, these efforts aimed to position alternative assets as solutions to economic uncertainties. However, historical trends suggest resistance to single-asset reliance.

在这两种情况下，这些努力都旨在将另类资产定位为经济不确定性的解决方案。然而，历史趋势表明对单一资产依赖的抵制。

For instance, calls to reinstate the gold standard in the late 1990s were dismissed, with the US opting to innovate its way out of economic challenges. Ju predicts Bitcoin may face similar pushback unless the country’s economic standing weakens.

例如，20 世纪 90 年代末恢复金本位的呼声被驳回，美国选择以创新方式摆脱经济挑战。 Ju预测，除非该国的经济地位减弱，否则比特币可能会面临类似的阻力。

“If Trump succeeds in showcasing U.S. economic resilience, reinforcing the dollar’s supremacy, and boosting his approval ratings, it’s unclear if he would maintain the strong pro-Bitcoin stance he demonstrated during his campaign. He could easily step back from his Bitcoin advocacy, citing changing priorities, without alienating his voter base,” Ju stated.

“如果特朗普成功展示了美国经济的韧性，巩固了美元的霸主地位，并提高了他的支持率，目前还不清楚他是否会维持他在竞选期间表现出的强烈支持比特币的立场。他可以轻松地放弃对比特币的支持，以改变优先事项为由，而不会疏远他的选民基础。”Ju 表示。

Despite skepticism, some experts champion Bitcoin’s potential role in reshaping global finance. Mathew Sigel of VanEck recently argued that the US could reduce its national debt by up to 36% by 2050 through adopting a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

尽管存在怀疑，一些专家还是支持比特币在重塑全球金融方面的潜在作用。 VanEck 的 Mathew Sigel 最近认为，通过采用战略比特币储备，美国到 2050 年可以将其国债减少高达 36%。

Sigel envisions Bitcoin becoming a leading settlement currency in global trade, particularly for nations seeking to bypass U.S. sanctions.

Sigel 预计比特币将成为全球贸易中的主要结算货币，特别是对于寻求绕过美国制裁的国家而言。