比特幣最近的救濟拉力賽在周一（3月24日）將原始的加密貨幣提升到了兩週的高度，有短暫的風險

缺乏看漲的勢頭，低量和持續的宏觀緊張局勢正在結合起來，以為某些交易者所說的是潛在的“牛陷阱”的條件

Bitcoin's recent price rally, which saw the world's largest cryptocurrency hit a two-week high on Monday, could be short-lived as broader market uncertainty continues to keep investors on the sidelines, according to some market experts.

據一些市場專家稱，比特幣最近的價格集會在周一看到世界上最大的加密貨幣達到了兩週的高點，因為一些市場專家的說法，更廣泛的市場不確定性繼續使投資者處於場外。

A lack of bullish momentum, low volumes and ongoing macro tensions are combining to create the conditions for what some traders say is a potential “bull trap” in a directionless market.

缺乏看漲的動力，低量和正在進行的宏觀緊張局勢正在結合起來，以創造一些交易者所說的條件，這是一個潛在的“牛陷阱”。

Macroeconomic risks, such as potential tariff escalations, inflation concerns, and geopolitical instability, continue to cast a shadow over Bitcoin's price action.

宏觀經濟的風險，例如潛在的關稅升級，通貨膨脹問題和地緣政治不穩定，繼續對比特幣的價格行動產生陰影。

"It’s important for investors to be cautious in this environment: The market remains fragile and can be easily manipulated," said Kirill Kretov, trading automation expert at CoinPanel. "Retail activity is low, volume is thin, and even the so-called ‘smart money’ is staying on the sidelines. The players with the real ability to move the market are not doing so – and for good reason."

Coinpanel的貿易自動化專家Kirill Kretov說：“在這種環境下要謹慎至關重要：市場仍然脆弱並且可以輕鬆操縱。” “零售活動很低，數量很薄，甚至所謂的'智能資金'都在旁觀。具有真正移動市場能力的球員沒有這樣做，這是有充分理由的。”

Throughout March, Bitcoin has fluctuated between about US$76,000 and US$95,000. Yet without a clear catalyst to push the price beyond these levels, the market has struggled to gain sustained bullish traction.

在整個3月，比特幣波動約為76,000美元至95,000美元。然而，如果沒有明確的催化劑將價格推高這些水平，市場一直在努力獲得持續的看漲牽引力。

One indicator of cautious sentiment is the Bitcoin funding rate, which reflects the difference in prices between the spot and futures markets. In bullish markets, futures prices are above spot prices, so the funding rate is positive. Despite Bitcoin's price climbing more than 4 per cent to US$88,786 on Monday, its funding rate turned negative, according to data from CryptoQuant. That's a sign that traders are no longer willing to pay a premium to open new long positions in the token's perpetual futures market.

謹慎情緒的一個指標是比特幣融資率，這反映了現貨和期貨市場之間價格差異。在看漲的市場中，期貨價格高於現貨價格，因此資金率是正面的。根據CryptoFeant的數據，儘管比特幣的價格攀升超過4％，至88,786美元，但其籌資速度卻呈負數。這表明交易者不再願意支付保費，以在代幣永久期貨市場中開設新的長位。

These futures contracts, which have no set expiry, are often used by speculators looking to profit from short-term price fluctuations. A negative funding rate suggests a shift in sentiment and a moderation in leverage demand.

這些未固定到期的期貨合約通常是由希望從短期價格波動中獲利的投機者使用的。負資金率表明情緒的轉變和槓桿需求的適度情況。

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In another sign of a lack of conviction in the market, the cost of borrowing stablecoins such as Tether's USDT and Circle's USDC on decentralised lending platform Aave has dropped to around 4 per cent, reflecting the risk-off sentiment among investors that has spilled into the crypto sector.

在市場上缺乏信念的另一個跡像中，借用Tether的USDT和Circle的USDC在分散貸款平台AAVE上借用的成本已下降到4％左右，這反映了已經湧入加密貨幣部門的投資者的風險情緒。

"On Aave, lending rates are impacted by utilisation rates of deposited assets," said Strahinja Savic, head of data and analytics at FRNT Financial. "As appetite diminishes for leverage, and other trading strategies that require borrowing, the lending rates on Aave fall."

FRNT Financy的數據和分析負責人Strahinja Savic說：“在AAVE上，貸款利率受到存款資產的利用率的影響。” “隨著食慾減少槓桿作用，以及其他需要藉貸的交易策略，艾滋病跌倒的貸款利率。”

Moreover, seasoned Bitcoin holders from previous market cycles are still holding their positions, hoping for higher exit prices. This, according to Kretov, creates what he calls “dead weight” in the market, making it more susceptible to volatility. While volatility can flush out overleveraged retail traders, Kretov believes that a true market washout, where even long-term holders capitulate, is necessary to provide large investors with a “clean slate” for new positions.

此外，以前市場週期的經驗豐富的比特幣持有人仍在保持自己的頭寸，希望出口價格更高。根據克雷托夫（Kretov）的說法，這創造了他所謂的市場上的“重量”，使其更容易受到波動的影響。儘管波動性可以沖洗過零售商人，但克雷托夫（Kretov）認為，即使是長期持有人也會屈服的真實市場沖刷，也必須為大型投資者提供新職位的“清潔板”。

Trump’s World Liberty Financial crypto venture to launch stablecoin

特朗普的世界自由金融加密貨幣公司推出Stablecoin

BlackRock debuts Bitcoin exchange-traded product in Europe

BlackRock在歐洲首次亮相比特幣交換產品

Crypto altcoins outperform Bitcoin during widespread risk rally

在廣泛的風險集會期間，加密山幣優於比特幣

"Until that happens, relief rallies are dangerous," he said. "They can suck in impatient longs only to reverse violently – classic bull traps in a low-liquidity environment."

他說：“直到發生這種情況，救濟集會是危險的。” “他們可以忍受不耐煩的渴望，只能猛烈地逆轉 - 在低流動性環境中經典的牛陷阱。”

For clarity on the market's direction, all eyes are now on US President Donald Trump's plans to put more tariffs in place on April 2, according to Augustine Fan, partner at SignalPlus, a cryptocurrency derivatives software provider.

為了清楚市場的方向，現在所有人都關注美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）在4月2日提出更多關稅的計劃。

"We expect markets to continue their soft rebound into month-end, with the next major catalyst being the 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement," he added.

他補充說：“我們預計市場將繼續將他們的柔和反彈推向月底，下一個主要的催化劑是'Liberation Day'關稅公告。”

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