比特币最近的救济拉力赛在周一（3月24日）将原始的加密货币提升到了两周的高度，有短暂的风险

缺乏看涨的势头，低量和持续的宏观紧张局势正在结合起来，以为某些交易者所说的是潜在的“牛陷阱”的条件

Bitcoin's recent price rally, which saw the world's largest cryptocurrency hit a two-week high on Monday, could be short-lived as broader market uncertainty continues to keep investors on the sidelines, according to some market experts.

据一些市场专家称，比特币最近的价格集会在周一看到世界上最大的加密货币达到了两周的高点，因为一些市场专家的说法，更广泛的市场不确定性继续使投资者处于场外。

A lack of bullish momentum, low volumes and ongoing macro tensions are combining to create the conditions for what some traders say is a potential “bull trap” in a directionless market.

缺乏看涨的动力，低量和正在进行的宏观紧张局势正在结合起来，以创造一些交易者所说的条件，这是一个潜在的“牛陷阱”。

Macroeconomic risks, such as potential tariff escalations, inflation concerns, and geopolitical instability, continue to cast a shadow over Bitcoin's price action.

宏观经济的风险，例如潜在的关税升级，通货膨胀问题和地缘政治不稳定，继续对比特币的价格行动产生阴影。

"It’s important for investors to be cautious in this environment: The market remains fragile and can be easily manipulated," said Kirill Kretov, trading automation expert at CoinPanel. "Retail activity is low, volume is thin, and even the so-called ‘smart money’ is staying on the sidelines. The players with the real ability to move the market are not doing so – and for good reason."

Coinpanel的贸易自动化专家Kirill Kretov说：“在这种环境下要谨慎至关重要：市场仍然脆弱并且可以轻松操纵。” “零售活动很低，数量很薄，甚至所谓的'智能资金'都在旁观。具有真正移动市场能力的球员没有这样做，这是有充分理由的。”

Throughout March, Bitcoin has fluctuated between about US$76,000 and US$95,000. Yet without a clear catalyst to push the price beyond these levels, the market has struggled to gain sustained bullish traction.

在整个3月，比特币波动约为76,000美元至95,000美元。然而，如果没有明确的催化剂将价格推高这些水平，市场一直在努力获得持续的看涨牵引力。

One indicator of cautious sentiment is the Bitcoin funding rate, which reflects the difference in prices between the spot and futures markets. In bullish markets, futures prices are above spot prices, so the funding rate is positive. Despite Bitcoin's price climbing more than 4 per cent to US$88,786 on Monday, its funding rate turned negative, according to data from CryptoQuant. That's a sign that traders are no longer willing to pay a premium to open new long positions in the token's perpetual futures market.

谨慎情绪的一个指标是比特币融资率，这反映了现货和期货市场之间价格差异。在看涨的市场中，期货价格高于现货价格，因此资金率是正面的。根据CryptoFeant的数据，尽管比特币的价格攀升超过4％，至88,786美元，但其筹资速度却呈负数。这表明交易者不再愿意支付保费，以在代币永久期货市场中开设新的长位。

These futures contracts, which have no set expiry, are often used by speculators looking to profit from short-term price fluctuations. A negative funding rate suggests a shift in sentiment and a moderation in leverage demand.

这些未固定到期的期货合约通常是由希望从短期价格波动中获利的投机者使用的。负资金率表明情绪的转变和杠杆需求的适度情况。

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In another sign of a lack of conviction in the market, the cost of borrowing stablecoins such as Tether's USDT and Circle's USDC on decentralised lending platform Aave has dropped to around 4 per cent, reflecting the risk-off sentiment among investors that has spilled into the crypto sector.

在市场上缺乏信念的另一个迹象中，借用Tether的USDT和Circle的USDC在分散贷款平台AAVE上借用的成本已下降到4％左右，这反映了已经涌入加密货币部门的投资者的风险情绪。

"On Aave, lending rates are impacted by utilisation rates of deposited assets," said Strahinja Savic, head of data and analytics at FRNT Financial. "As appetite diminishes for leverage, and other trading strategies that require borrowing, the lending rates on Aave fall."

FRNT Financy的数据和分析负责人Strahinja Savic说：“在AAVE上，贷款利率受到存款资产的利用率的影响。” “随着食欲减少杠杆作用，以及其他需要借贷的交易策略，艾滋病跌倒的贷款利率。”

Moreover, seasoned Bitcoin holders from previous market cycles are still holding their positions, hoping for higher exit prices. This, according to Kretov, creates what he calls “dead weight” in the market, making it more susceptible to volatility. While volatility can flush out overleveraged retail traders, Kretov believes that a true market washout, where even long-term holders capitulate, is necessary to provide large investors with a “clean slate” for new positions.

此外，以前市场周期的经验丰富的比特币持有人仍在保持自己的头寸，希望出口价格更高。根据克雷托夫（Kretov）的说法，这创造了他所谓的市场上的“重量”，使其更容易受到波动的影响。尽管波动性可以冲洗过零售商人，但克雷托夫（Kretov）认为，即使是长期持有人也会屈服的真实市场冲刷，也必须为大型投资者提供新职位的“清洁板”。

Trump’s World Liberty Financial crypto venture to launch stablecoin

特朗普的世界自由金融加密货币公司推出Stablecoin

BlackRock debuts Bitcoin exchange-traded product in Europe

BlackRock在欧洲首次亮相比特币交换产品

Crypto altcoins outperform Bitcoin during widespread risk rally

在广泛的风险集会期间，加密山币优于比特币

"Until that happens, relief rallies are dangerous," he said. "They can suck in impatient longs only to reverse violently – classic bull traps in a low-liquidity environment."

他说：“直到发生这种情况，救济集会是危险的。” “他们可以忍受不耐烦的渴望，只能猛烈地逆转 - 在低流动性环境中经典的牛陷阱。”

For clarity on the market's direction, all eyes are now on US President Donald Trump's plans to put more tariffs in place on April 2, according to Augustine Fan, partner at SignalPlus, a cryptocurrency derivatives software provider.

为了清楚市场的方向，现在所有人都关注美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）在4月2日提出更多关税的计划。

"We expect markets to continue their soft rebound into month-end, with the next major catalyst being the 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement," he added.

他补充说：“我们预计市场将继续将他们的柔和反弹推向月底，下一个主要的催化剂是'Liberation Day'关税公告。”

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