比特幣的統治可能即將結束：專家預測螺旋式下降和市場調整

加密貨幣專家 Peter Brandt 認為，基於「指數衰減」的概念，比特幣當前的市場週期可能已經達到頂峰。該理論表明，在連續的多頭市場中，比特幣的漲幅已經減弱，當前週期的價格漲幅預計約為上一周期價格漲幅的 20%。雖然布蘭特承認比特幣減半後價格出現歷史性飆升，但他認為，從長遠來看，比特幣價格可能會跌至30,000 美元左右，這可能是看漲的，因為這可能為拋物線上漲和反彈至100,000 美元以上鋪平道路。

Bitcoin's Zenith May Have Arrived: Expert Predicts Exponential Decay and Market Correction

比特幣的頂峰可能已經到來：專家預測指數級衰減和市場調整

Prominent cryptocurrency expert Peter Brandt has asserted that Bitcoin may have reached the apex of its current market cycle, based on the concept of "exponential decay." While this notion may evoke concern, Brandt suggests that it could actually benefit the Bitcoin ecosystem in the long run.

著名的加密貨幣專家 Peter Brandt 斷言，基於「指數衰減」的概念，比特幣可能已經達到當前市場週期的頂峰。雖然這個概念可能會引起擔憂，但布蘭特表示，從長遠來看，它實際上可能有利於比特幣生態系統。

Brandt's analysis is founded on historical data, which reveals that Bitcoin's percentage gains have diminished in each successive bull market. From 2011 to 2013, Bitcoin experienced a remarkable 122x increase, while from 2015 to 2017, it grew by 21.3% of that prior surge. Similarly, from 2018 to 2021, Bitcoin's 22x increase represented only 18% of the previous cycle's gain.

布蘭特的分析建立在歷史數據的基礎上，歷史數據表明，比特幣的漲幅在每次連續的牛市中都在減少。從 2011 年到 2013 年，比特幣經歷了 122 倍的驚人成長，而從 2015 年到 2017 年，比特幣成長了 21.3%。同樣，從 2018 年到 2021 年，比特幣 22 倍的漲幅僅相當於上一個週期漲幅的 18%。

Extrapolating from these patterns, Brandt postulates that the current market cycle is unlikely to deviate significantly. He anticipates a 20% return on the price increase recorded in the previous cycle, suggesting a market high of approximately $72,723. However, Bitcoin has already surpassed this threshold, reaching a record high of $73,750.

根據這些模式推斷，布蘭特假設當前的市場週期不太可能出現重大偏差。他預計上一周期的價格上漲將獲得 20% 的回報，這表明市場高點約為 72,723 美元。然而，比特幣已經突破了這個門檻，達到了 73,750 美元的歷史新高。

Despite this temporary peak, Brandt maintains that Bitcoin's exponential decay is a reality that the cryptocurrency community must acknowledge. He suggests a 25% probability that Bitcoin has already crested.

儘管出現了暫時的峰值，布蘭特堅持認為，比特幣的指數衰減是加密貨幣社群必須承認的現實。他認為比特幣有 25% 的可能性已經見頂。

Paradoxically, Brandt argues that a downturn to around $30,000, or even a revisit to 2021 lows, could be the most positive outcome for Bitcoin's long-term prospects. Such a correction would clear the market of speculative excesses and provide a foundation for a more sustainable rally.

矛盾的是，布蘭特認為，跌至 3 萬美元左右，甚至重返 2021 年低點，可能是比特幣長期前景最積極的結果。這樣的調整將清除市場上的過度投機，並為更永續的反彈奠定基礎。

Brandt's perspective aligns with classical charting techniques, which suggest that Bitcoin could still be poised for significant upward movements, potentially surpassing the $100,000 mark. He draws parallels between Bitcoin's potential trajectory and the historical price path of gold from 2020 to 2024.

Brandt 的觀點與經典圖表技術一致，這表明比特幣仍可能大幅上漲，有可能突破 10 萬美元大關。他將比特幣的潛在軌跡與 2020 年至 2024 年黃金的歷史價格軌跡進行了比較。

While Bitcoin's price has recently dipped below $63,000, Brandt's analysis suggests that this may be a temporary setback in a larger, more bullish trend. The cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile, and it remains to be seen whether Bitcoin will embark on a sustained parabolic rally or undergo a period of consolidation.

雖然比特幣的價格最近跌破 63,000 美元，但 Brandt 的分析表明，這可能是更大、更看漲趨勢中的暫時挫折。加密貨幣市場仍然高度波動，比特幣是否會開啟持續的拋物線上漲，還是經歷一段盤整期，還有待觀察。

Brandt's insights provide a thought-provoking perspective on Bitcoin's current trajectory and long-term prospects. While it is impossible to predict the future with certainty, his analysis underscores the importance of understanding historical patterns and the potential impact of market cycles on cryptocurrency valuations.

布蘭特的見解為比特幣當前的軌跡和長期前景提供了一個發人深省的視角。雖然不可能準確預測未來，但他的分析強調了了解歷史模式以及市場週期對加密貨幣估值的潛在影響的重要性。