比特币的统治可能即将结束：专家预测螺旋式下降和市场调整

加密货币专家 Peter Brandt 认为，基于“指数衰减”的概念，比特币当前的市场周期可能已经达到顶峰。该理论表明，在连续的牛市中，比特币的涨幅已经减弱，当前周期的价格涨幅预计约为上一周期价格涨幅的 20%。虽然布兰特承认比特币减半后价格出现历史性飙升，但他认为，从长远来看，比特币价格可能会跌至 30,000 美元左右，这可能是看涨的，因为这可能为抛物线上涨和反弹至 100,000 美元以上铺平道路。

Bitcoin's Zenith May Have Arrived: Expert Predicts Exponential Decay and Market Correction

比特币的顶峰可能已经到来：专家预测指数级衰减和市场调整

Prominent cryptocurrency expert Peter Brandt has asserted that Bitcoin may have reached the apex of its current market cycle, based on the concept of "exponential decay." While this notion may evoke concern, Brandt suggests that it could actually benefit the Bitcoin ecosystem in the long run.

著名的加密货币专家 Peter Brandt 断言，基于“指数衰减”的概念，比特币可能已经达到当前市场周期的顶峰。虽然这个概念可能会引起担忧，但布兰特表示，从长远来看，它实际上可能有利于比特币生态系统。

Brandt's analysis is founded on historical data, which reveals that Bitcoin's percentage gains have diminished in each successive bull market. From 2011 to 2013, Bitcoin experienced a remarkable 122x increase, while from 2015 to 2017, it grew by 21.3% of that prior surge. Similarly, from 2018 to 2021, Bitcoin's 22x increase represented only 18% of the previous cycle's gain.

布兰特的分析建立在历史数据的基础上，历史数据表明，比特币的涨幅在每次连续的牛市中都在减少。从 2011 年到 2013 年，比特币经历了 122 倍的惊人增长，而从 2015 年到 2017 年，比特币增长了 21.3%。同样，从 2018 年到 2021 年，比特币 22 倍的涨幅仅相当于上一个周期涨幅的 18%。

Extrapolating from these patterns, Brandt postulates that the current market cycle is unlikely to deviate significantly. He anticipates a 20% return on the price increase recorded in the previous cycle, suggesting a market high of approximately $72,723. However, Bitcoin has already surpassed this threshold, reaching a record high of $73,750.

根据这些模式推断，布兰特假设当前的市场周期不太可能出现重大偏差。他预计上一周期的价格上涨将获得 20% 的回报，这表明市场高点约为 72,723 美元。然而，比特币已经突破了这一门槛，达到了 73,750 美元的历史新高。

Despite this temporary peak, Brandt maintains that Bitcoin's exponential decay is a reality that the cryptocurrency community must acknowledge. He suggests a 25% probability that Bitcoin has already crested.

尽管出现了暂时的峰值，但布兰特坚持认为，比特币的指数衰减是加密货币社区必须承认的现实。他认为比特币有 25% 的可能性已经见顶。

Paradoxically, Brandt argues that a downturn to around $30,000, or even a revisit to 2021 lows, could be the most positive outcome for Bitcoin's long-term prospects. Such a correction would clear the market of speculative excesses and provide a foundation for a more sustainable rally.

矛盾的是，布兰特认为，跌至 30,000 美元左右，甚至重返 2021 年低点，可能是比特币长期前景最积极的结果。这样的调整将清除市场上的过度投机，并为更可持续的反弹奠定基础。

Brandt's perspective aligns with classical charting techniques, which suggest that Bitcoin could still be poised for significant upward movements, potentially surpassing the $100,000 mark. He draws parallels between Bitcoin's potential trajectory and the historical price path of gold from 2020 to 2024.

Brandt 的观点与经典图表技术一致，这表明比特币仍可能出现大幅上涨，有可能突破 10 万美元大关。他将比特币的潜在轨迹与 2020 年至 2024 年黄金的历史价格轨迹进行了比较。

While Bitcoin's price has recently dipped below $63,000, Brandt's analysis suggests that this may be a temporary setback in a larger, more bullish trend. The cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile, and it remains to be seen whether Bitcoin will embark on a sustained parabolic rally or undergo a period of consolidation.

虽然比特币的价格最近跌破 63,000 美元，但 Brandt 的分析表明，这可能是更大、更看涨趋势中的暂时挫折。加密货币市场仍然高度波动，比特币是否会开启持续的抛物线上涨，还是经历一段盘整期，还有待观察。

Brandt's insights provide a thought-provoking perspective on Bitcoin's current trajectory and long-term prospects. While it is impossible to predict the future with certainty, his analysis underscores the importance of understanding historical patterns and the potential impact of market cycles on cryptocurrency valuations.

布兰特的见解为比特币当前的轨迹和长期前景提供了发人深省的视角。虽然不可能准确预测未来，但他的分析强调了了解历史模式以及市场周期对加密货币估值的潜在影响的重要性。