比特幣獲利供應大幅下降，預示著市場暴跌

加密貨幣市場經歷了大幅下滑，比特幣的獲利供應量下降至 90% 左右。這表明 10% 的比特幣供應目前處於虧損狀態，上次出現的水平是在 3 月底市場低迷時期。利潤供應百分比指標衡量的是未實現收益的比特幣供應百分比，通常在獲利能力較高時先於市場頂部。相反，當盈利能力下降時，就像最近發生的那樣，它可能預示著潛在的市場底部。儘管目前獲利能力下降，但比特幣仍保持在 90% 的相對較高水平，這表明漲勢可能會持續。

Bitcoin Market Plunges, With 10% of Supply Facing Losses

比特幣市場暴跌，10%的供應面臨損失

The cryptocurrency market has witnessed a dramatic shift in recent weeks, with the flagship currency Bitcoin experiencing a significant decline in its profitable supply. This has coincided with a sharp drop in the value of Bitcoin, which has now fallen to around $65,000.

最近幾週，加密貨幣市場發生了巨大變化，旗艦貨幣比特幣的獲利供應量大幅下降。同時，比特幣的價值也急劇下跌，目前已跌至 65,000 美元左右。

Renowned data analyst James Van Straten has highlighted that approximately 10% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is now facing a state of loss, a stark indicator of the current market sentiment. The key on-chain metric that tracks this profitability is the "Percent Supply in Profit," which measures the percentage of Bitcoin supply that is currently holding an unrealized gain.

著名數據分析師 James Van Straten 強調，大約 10% 的比特幣流通供應量目前面臨虧損狀態，這是當前市場情緒的鮮明指標。追蹤這種獲利能力的關鍵鏈上指標是“利潤供應百分比”，它衡量當前持有未實現收益的比特幣供應百分比。

Methodology Behind Percent Supply in Profit

利潤供應百分比背後的方法論

This metric is derived by meticulously examining the historical transaction data of all Bitcoin coins in circulation. It assumes that each transaction represents a change in ownership, allowing the last sale price to be used as the cost basis for each coin.

該指標是透過仔細檢查所有流通中的比特幣的歷史交易數據得出的。它假設每筆交易都代表所有權的變化，從而允許將最後的銷售價格用作每個代幣的成本基礎。

Profitability is then determined by comparing the current spot price of Bitcoin to the cost basis of each coin. If a coin's cost basis is below the current Bitcoin price, it is considered to be in a profitable position. The Percent Supply in Profit aggregates all such coins and calculates their ratio relative to the total Bitcoin supply.

然後透過將比特幣的當前現貨價格與每種硬幣的成本基礎進行比較來確定獲利能力。如果代幣的成本基礎低於目前的比特幣價格，則被視為獲利狀態。利潤中的供應百分比匯總了所有此類代幣，並計算它們相對於比特幣總供應量的比率。

Recent Decline in Percent Supply in Profit

最近利潤供應百分比下降

A recently released graph shows a precipitous decline in the Bitcoin Percent Supply in Profit over the past few months. The indicator has plummeted to approximately 90%, reflecting the substantial setback in cryptocurrency prices. This indicates that around 10% of Bitcoin's supply is currently operating at a loss.

最近發布的圖表顯示，過去幾個月比特幣供應占利潤的百分比急劇下降。該指標已暴跌至約 90%，反映出加密貨幣價格的大幅下跌。這表明目前大約 10% 的比特幣供應處於虧損狀態。

Interestingly, the last time such low levels were observed was in late March, when Bitcoin reached its recent low point. Earlier records had shown the Percent Supply in Profit climbing toward 100%, indicating a new all-time high (ATH) due to elevated prices, with the supply firmly positioned out of the red.

有趣的是，上一次觀察到如此低的水平是在 3 月底，當時比特幣達到了近期的低點。先前的記錄顯示，利潤中的供應百分比攀升至 100%，表明由於價格上漲而創下新的歷史高點 (ATH)，且供應已擺脫赤字。

Implications for Bitcoin Price

對比特幣價格的影響

Within the cryptocurrency market, a general rule of thumb is that investors with strong profit positions are more likely to sell their coins, potentially triggering a sell-off if a significant number of investors realize their profits. This explains why the Percent Supply in Profit tends to reach peaks during periods of high profitability.

在加密貨幣市場中，一般的經驗法則是，利潤豐厚的投資者更有可能出售其代幣，如果大量投資者實現利潤，則可能引發拋售。這解釋了為什麼利潤中的供應百分比往往在高利潤時期達到高峰。

Conversely, markets are more likely to bottom out when investor profitability declines. While the current profitability rate of 90% is still relatively high, it is not uncommon during periods of high demand and exploration of ATHs. The recent cooling of profitability compared to previous levels provides a positive indication that the rally may be able to continue, as it did in the previous month.

相反，當投資者獲利能力下降時，市場更有可能觸底。雖然目前 90% 的盈利率仍然較高，但在 ATH 的高需求和勘探時期並不罕見。與之前的水平相比，近期盈利能力的降溫提供了一個積極的跡象，表明漲勢可能會像上個月一樣持續下去。

Current Bitcoin Price Dynamics

當前比特幣價格動態

As of the time of this report, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $65,700, down over 5% from the previous week. A close examination of the Bitcoin trading landscape reveals that the price of this popular virtual asset has been on a steady decline over the last few days.

截至本報告發佈時，比特幣交易價格約為 65,700 美元，較前一周下跌超過 5%。對比特幣交易格局的仔細研究表明，這種受歡迎的虛擬資產的價格在過去幾天一直在穩步下跌。