比特币盈利供应大幅下降，预示着市场暴跌

加密货币市场经历了大幅下滑，比特币的盈利供应量下降至 90% 左右。这表明 10% 的比特币供应目前处于亏损状态，上次出现的水平是在 3 月底市场低迷时期。利润供应百分比指标衡量的是未实现收益的比特币供应百分比，通常在盈利能力较高时先于市场顶部。相反，当盈利能力下降时，就像最近发生的那样，它可能预示着潜在的市场底部。尽管目前盈利能力下降，但比特币仍保持在 90% 的相对较高水平，这表明涨势可能会持续。

Bitcoin Market Plunges, With 10% of Supply Facing Losses

比特币市场暴跌，10%的供应面临损失

The cryptocurrency market has witnessed a dramatic shift in recent weeks, with the flagship currency Bitcoin experiencing a significant decline in its profitable supply. This has coincided with a sharp drop in the value of Bitcoin, which has now fallen to around $65,000.

最近几周，加密货币市场发生了巨大变化，旗舰货币比特币的盈利供应量大幅下降。与此同时，比特币的价值也急剧下跌，目前已跌至 65,000 美元左右。

Renowned data analyst James Van Straten has highlighted that approximately 10% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is now facing a state of loss, a stark indicator of the current market sentiment. The key on-chain metric that tracks this profitability is the "Percent Supply in Profit," which measures the percentage of Bitcoin supply that is currently holding an unrealized gain.

著名数据分析师 James Van Straten 强调，大约 10% 的比特币流通供应量目前面临亏损状态，这是当前市场情绪的鲜明指标。跟踪这种盈利能力的关键链上指标是“利润供应百分比”，它衡量当前持有未实现收益的比特币供应百分比。

Methodology Behind Percent Supply in Profit

利润供应百分比背后的方法论

This metric is derived by meticulously examining the historical transaction data of all Bitcoin coins in circulation. It assumes that each transaction represents a change in ownership, allowing the last sale price to be used as the cost basis for each coin.

该指标是通过仔细检查所有流通中的比特币的历史交易数据得出的。它假设每笔交易都代表所有权的变化，从而允许将最后的销售价格用作每个代币的成本基础。

Profitability is then determined by comparing the current spot price of Bitcoin to the cost basis of each coin. If a coin's cost basis is below the current Bitcoin price, it is considered to be in a profitable position. The Percent Supply in Profit aggregates all such coins and calculates their ratio relative to the total Bitcoin supply.

然后通过将比特币的当前现货价格与每种硬币的成本基础进行比较来确定盈利能力。如果代币的成本基础低于当前的比特币价格，则被认为处于盈利状态。利润中的供应百分比汇总了所有此类代币，并计算它们相对于比特币总供应量的比率。

Recent Decline in Percent Supply in Profit

最近利润供应百分比下降

A recently released graph shows a precipitous decline in the Bitcoin Percent Supply in Profit over the past few months. The indicator has plummeted to approximately 90%, reflecting the substantial setback in cryptocurrency prices. This indicates that around 10% of Bitcoin's supply is currently operating at a loss.

最近发布的图表显示，过去几个月比特币供应占利润的百分比急剧下降。该指标已暴跌至约 90%，反映出加密货币价格的大幅下跌。这表明目前大约 10% 的比特币供应处于亏损状态。

Interestingly, the last time such low levels were observed was in late March, when Bitcoin reached its recent low point. Earlier records had shown the Percent Supply in Profit climbing toward 100%, indicating a new all-time high (ATH) due to elevated prices, with the supply firmly positioned out of the red.

有趣的是，上一次观察到如此低的水平是在 3 月底，当时比特币达到了近期的低点。此前的记录显示，利润中的供应百分比攀升至 100%，表明由于价格上涨而创下新的历史高点 (ATH)，且供应已摆脱赤字。

Implications for Bitcoin Price

对比特币价格的影响

Within the cryptocurrency market, a general rule of thumb is that investors with strong profit positions are more likely to sell their coins, potentially triggering a sell-off if a significant number of investors realize their profits. This explains why the Percent Supply in Profit tends to reach peaks during periods of high profitability.

在加密货币市场中，一般的经验法则是，利润丰厚的投资者更有可能出售其代币，如果大量投资者实现利润，则可能引发抛售。这解释了为什么利润中的供应百分比往往在高利润时期达到峰值。

Conversely, markets are more likely to bottom out when investor profitability declines. While the current profitability rate of 90% is still relatively high, it is not uncommon during periods of high demand and exploration of ATHs. The recent cooling of profitability compared to previous levels provides a positive indication that the rally may be able to continue, as it did in the previous month.

相反，当投资者盈利能力下降时，市场更有可能触底。虽然目前 90% 的盈利率仍然较高，但在 ATH 的高需求和勘探时期并不罕见。与之前的水平相比，近期盈利能力的降温提供了一个积极的迹象，表明涨势可能会像上个月一样持续下去。

Current Bitcoin Price Dynamics

当前比特币价格动态

As of the time of this report, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $65,700, down over 5% from the previous week. A close examination of the Bitcoin trading landscape reveals that the price of this popular virtual asset has been on a steady decline over the last few days.

截至本报告发布时，比特币交易价格约为 65,700 美元，较前一周下跌超过 5%。对比特币交易格局的仔细研究表明，这种受欢迎的虚拟资产的价格在过去几天一直在稳步下跌。