分析師稱比特幣價格有望飆升：目標可能達到 30 萬美元

一位加密貨幣分析師根據技術指標和歷史價格模式預測，比特幣的價格可能會飆升至 30 萬美元。該分析師確定了前幾年最激進的牛市週期開始的關鍵領域，並表明當前的周期可能遵循類似的模式，可能導致價格較當前水平大幅上漲。

Bitcoin's Price Surge: Analyst Predicts Potential Trajectory to $300,000

比特幣價格飆升：分析師預測其潛在軌跡將達到 30 萬美元

A renowned crypto analyst has posited a bullish prediction for Bitcoin (BTC), suggesting that the cryptocurrency may be poised for a significant price rally that could propel it to $300,000. This projection is based on a comprehensive analysis of historical price movements, key technical indicators, and a Fibonacci extension model.

一位著名的加密貨幣分析師對比特幣 (BTC) 做出了看漲預測，表明該加密貨幣可能會出現大幅價格上漲，將其推至 30 萬美元。該預測是基於對歷史價格走勢、關鍵技術指標和斐波那契擴展模型的綜合分析。

Technical Indicators and Pattern Analysis

技術指標與形態分析

The crypto analyst, known as 'TradingShot' on the financial market analysis platform TradingView, conducted a detailed examination of BTC's price movements from 2012 to 2024. This analysis revealed that BTC has consistently tested and held above the Mayer Multiple (MM) Mean, a technical indicator that gauges the ratio between the price and the 200-day moving average. According to TradingShot, BTC is currently in a consolidation phase.

這位在金融市場分析平台TradingView 上被稱為「TradingShot」的加密貨幣分析師對2012 年至2024 年BTC 的價格走勢進行了詳細檢查。在均值之上，該均值是衡量價格與 200 日移動平均線之間比率的技術指標。據TradingShot稱，BTC目前正處於盤整階段。

Mayer Multiple Mean

邁耶多重均值

The Mayer Multiple Mean plays a crucial role in determining the relative value of BTC. When it falls below 1, BTC is considered undervalued; when it exceeds 2.4, it is considered overbought; and when it fluctuates between 1 and 2.4, it is considered fairly priced. TradingShot's analysis indicates that BTC is currently trading within the fair value range.

梅耶多重均值在決定 BTC 的相對價值方面發揮著至關重要的作用。當低於1時，BTC被認為被低估；當超過2.4時，視為超買；當它在1到2.4之間波動時，就認為價格合理。 TradingShot的分析表明，BTC目前在公允價值範圍內交易。

Historical Bull Cycle Patterns

歷史牛市週期模式

TradingShot identified several green arrows on a BTC price chart, marking the points at which the most aggressive historical periods of the bull cycle commenced. These arrows correspond to distinct areas from 2013, 2017, and 2021, all of which followed the Bitcoin halving dates.

TradingShot 在 BTC 價格圖表上發現了幾個綠色箭頭，標誌著牛市週期中最激進的歷史時期的開始點。這些箭頭對應於 2013 年、2017 年和 2021 年的不同區域，所有這些區域都遵循比特幣減半日期。

Fibonacci Extension Model

斐波那契擴展模型

TradingShot's analysis also incorporates the application of Fibonacci extensions from previous cycles. By measuring the Fibonacci extensions from the MM Mean's lows to highs before it, a unique pattern emerges, showing a progression in Bitcoin's price cycles.

TradingShot 的分析也結合了先前週期中斐波那契擴展的應用。透過測量從MM平均值低點到先前高點的斐波那契延伸，出現了一種獨特的模式，顯示了比特幣價格週期的進展。

Fibonacci Pattern and Projections

斐波那契模式與預測

Cycle 1 had surged marginally above Fib 2.0, while Cycle 2 was twice the Fibonacci extension of Cycle 1 at 4.0. Similarly, Cycle 3 was twice the Fibonacci extension of Cycle 2, at 6.0. Applying this pattern to the current 2024 Bitcoin cycle, the analyst suggests that Cycle 4 could also witness a double surge, potentially reaching a Fibonacci extension of 8.0. This projection, while speculative in nature, implies a potential rise in BTC's price to $300,000.

第 1 週期略高於斐波那契 2.0，而第 2 週期是第 1 週期斐波那契延伸線 4.0 的兩倍。同樣，週期 3 是週期 2 斐波那契擴展的兩倍，為 6.0。將該模式應用到目前的 2024 年比特幣週期中，分析師認為第 4 週期也可能出現雙重飆升，有可能達到 8.0 的斐波那契擴展。這項預測雖然本質上是投機性的，但意味著 BTC 的價格可能會上漲至 30 萬美元。

TradingShot's Rationale

TradingShot 的基本原理

TradingShot emphasizes the technical grounding of his projections, citing the precise measurements made from previous highs to lows cycles where Bitcoin touched the MM Mean. He observes that whenever the MM Mean is marginally breached, the subsequent rebound has been impressive and robust.

TradingShot 強調了他的預測的技術基礎，並引用了比特幣觸及MM均值的先前高點到低點週期的精確測量結果。他觀察到，每當 MM 平均值被小幅突破時，隨後的反彈就會令人印象深刻且強勁。

Current Market Trends and Counter-Perspectives

當前的市場趨勢和反觀點

Despite TradingShot's optimistic outlook, BTC has experienced a recent downward trend, losing approximately 11.16% over the past month. Crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe maintains a pessimistic outlook, anticipating further downturns for BTC. He attributes this to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on May 1, which may negatively impact market sentiment.

儘管TradingShot的前景樂觀，但BTC近期卻經歷了下跌趨勢，過去一個月下跌了約11.16%。加密貨幣分析師 Michael van de Poppe 維持悲觀前景，預計 BTC 將進一步下滑。他將此歸因於即將於 5 月 1 日舉行的聯邦公開市場委員會 (FOMC) 會議，這可能會對市場情緒產生負面影響。

Conclusion

結論

TradingShot's analysis provides a compelling case for the potential bullish trajectory of Bitcoin. However, it is important to note that the cryptocurrency market is inherently volatile, and unexpected events or fluctuations in market sentiment can influence its price movements. As with any investment, due diligence and careful consideration are crucial before making any decisions.

TradingShot 的分析為比特幣的潛在看漲軌跡提供了一個令人信服的案例。然而，值得注意的是，加密貨幣市場本質上是不穩定的，意外事件或市場情緒的波動可能會影響其價格走勢。與任何投資一樣，在做出任何決定之前，盡職調查和仔細考慮至關重要。