分析师称比特币价格有望飙升：目标可能达到 30 万美元

一位加密货币分析师根据技术指标和历史价格模式预测，比特币的价格可能会飙升至 30 万美元。该分析师确定了前几年最激进的牛市周期开始的关键领域，并表明当前的周期可能遵循类似的模式，可能导致价格较当前水平大幅上涨。

Bitcoin's Price Surge: Analyst Predicts Potential Trajectory to $300,000

比特币价格飙升：分析师预测其潜在轨迹将达到 30 万美元

A renowned crypto analyst has posited a bullish prediction for Bitcoin (BTC), suggesting that the cryptocurrency may be poised for a significant price rally that could propel it to $300,000. This projection is based on a comprehensive analysis of historical price movements, key technical indicators, and a Fibonacci extension model.

一位著名的加密货币分析师对比特币 (BTC) 做出了看涨预测，表明该加密货币可能会出现大幅价格上涨，将其推至 30 万美元。该预测基于对历史价格走势、关键技术指标和斐波那契扩展模型的综合分析。

Technical Indicators and Pattern Analysis

技术指标和形态分析

The crypto analyst, known as 'TradingShot' on the financial market analysis platform TradingView, conducted a detailed examination of BTC's price movements from 2012 to 2024. This analysis revealed that BTC has consistently tested and held above the Mayer Multiple (MM) Mean, a technical indicator that gauges the ratio between the price and the 200-day moving average. According to TradingShot, BTC is currently in a consolidation phase.

这位在金融市场分析平台 TradingView 上被称为“TradingShot”的加密货币分析师对 2012 年至 2024 年 BTC 的价格走势进行了详细检查。该分析显示，BTC 一直测试并保持在 Mayer 多重 (MM) 均值之上，该均值是衡量价格与 200 日移动平均线之间比率的技术指标。据TradingShot称，BTC目前正处于盘整阶段。

Mayer Multiple Mean

迈耶多重均值

The Mayer Multiple Mean plays a crucial role in determining the relative value of BTC. When it falls below 1, BTC is considered undervalued; when it exceeds 2.4, it is considered overbought; and when it fluctuates between 1 and 2.4, it is considered fairly priced. TradingShot's analysis indicates that BTC is currently trading within the fair value range.

梅耶多重均值在确定 BTC 的相对价值方面发挥着至关重要的作用。当低于1时，BTC被认为被低估；当超过2.4时，视为超买；当它在1到2.4之间波动时，就认为价格合理。 TradingShot的分析表明，BTC目前在公允价值范围内交易。

Historical Bull Cycle Patterns

历史牛市周期模式

TradingShot identified several green arrows on a BTC price chart, marking the points at which the most aggressive historical periods of the bull cycle commenced. These arrows correspond to distinct areas from 2013, 2017, and 2021, all of which followed the Bitcoin halving dates.

TradingShot 在 BTC 价格图表上发现了几个绿色箭头，标志着牛市周期中最激进的历史时期的开始点。这些箭头对应于 2013 年、2017 年和 2021 年的不同区域，所有这些区域都遵循比特币减半日期。

Fibonacci Extension Model

斐波那契扩展模型

TradingShot's analysis also incorporates the application of Fibonacci extensions from previous cycles. By measuring the Fibonacci extensions from the MM Mean's lows to highs before it, a unique pattern emerges, showing a progression in Bitcoin's price cycles.

TradingShot 的分析还结合了之前周期中斐波那契扩展的应用。通过测量从MM均值低点到之前高点的斐波那契延伸，出现了一种独特的模式，显示了比特币价格周期的进展。

Fibonacci Pattern and Projections

斐波那契模式和预测

Cycle 1 had surged marginally above Fib 2.0, while Cycle 2 was twice the Fibonacci extension of Cycle 1 at 4.0. Similarly, Cycle 3 was twice the Fibonacci extension of Cycle 2, at 6.0. Applying this pattern to the current 2024 Bitcoin cycle, the analyst suggests that Cycle 4 could also witness a double surge, potentially reaching a Fibonacci extension of 8.0. This projection, while speculative in nature, implies a potential rise in BTC's price to $300,000.

第 1 周期略高于斐波那契 2.0，而第 2 周期是第 1 周期斐波那契延伸线 4.0 的两倍。同样，周期 3 是周期 2 斐波那契扩展的两倍，为 6.0。将该模式应用到当前的 2024 年比特币周期中，分析师认为第 4 周期也可能出现双重飙升，有可能达到 8.0 的斐波那契扩展。这一预测虽然本质上是投机性的，但意味着 BTC 的价格可能会上涨至 300,000 美元。

TradingShot's Rationale

TradingShot 的基本原理

TradingShot emphasizes the technical grounding of his projections, citing the precise measurements made from previous highs to lows cycles where Bitcoin touched the MM Mean. He observes that whenever the MM Mean is marginally breached, the subsequent rebound has been impressive and robust.

TradingShot 强调了他的预测的技术基础，引用了比特币触及MM均值的先前高点到低点周期的精确测量结果。他观察到，每当 MM 平均值被小幅突破时，随后的反弹就会令人印象深刻且强劲。

Current Market Trends and Counter-Perspectives

当前的市场趋势和反观点

Despite TradingShot's optimistic outlook, BTC has experienced a recent downward trend, losing approximately 11.16% over the past month. Crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe maintains a pessimistic outlook, anticipating further downturns for BTC. He attributes this to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on May 1, which may negatively impact market sentiment.

尽管TradingShot的前景乐观，但BTC近期却经历了下跌趋势，过去一个月下跌了约11.16%。加密货币分析师 Michael van de Poppe 维持悲观前景，预计 BTC 将进一步下滑。他将此归因于即将于 5 月 1 日举行的联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 会议，这可能会对市场情绪产生负面影响。

Conclusion

结论

TradingShot's analysis provides a compelling case for the potential bullish trajectory of Bitcoin. However, it is important to note that the cryptocurrency market is inherently volatile, and unexpected events or fluctuations in market sentiment can influence its price movements. As with any investment, due diligence and careful consideration are crucial before making any decisions.

TradingShot 的分析为比特币的潜在看涨轨迹提供了令人信服的案例。然而，值得注意的是，加密货币市场本质上是不稳定的，意外事件或市场情绪的波动可能会影响其价格走势。与任何投资一样，在做出任何决定之前，尽职调查和仔细考虑至关重要。