數據顯示，“無論誰贏得比賽”，比特幣的價格似乎都會飆升

Kaiko 的分析師 Adam Morgan McCarthy 本週透過分析選擇權、期貨、國債和股票市場的數據做出了這項預測。

Kaiko’s analyst Adam Morgan McCarthy made that prediction this week by crunching data on options, futures, Treasuries and stock markets.

Kaiko 的分析師 Adam Morgan McCarthy 本週透過分析選擇權、期貨、國債和股票市場的數據做出了這項預測。

The data show that traders are betting on the price to surge “regardless of who wins the race,” McCarthy wrote.

麥卡錫寫道，數據顯示，交易員押注“無論誰贏得比賽”，價格都會上漲。

This estimate comes as the crypto industry braces for the vote on November 5, which has been the first election where both candidates have made sector-friendly overtures.

這項估計是在加密產業為 11 月 5 日的投票做好準備之際做出的，這是兩位候選人首次提出對產業友好的提議。

Up to $80,000

高達 80,000 美元

McCarthy noted that the volume of Bitcoin options trades has ticked up ahead of the election.

麥卡錫指出，比特幣選擇權交易量在大選前增加。

These trades give investors an opportunity to buy Bitcoin at specific prices at some point in the future and to profit from any difference between that price and the asset’s real price.

這些交易使投資者有機會在未來某個時刻以特定價格購買比特幣，並從該價格與資產實際價格之間的任何差異中獲利。

Notably, the expiration of the Bitcoin options trade on December 27 saw many traders pile in at bets that give the asset a price at $100,000.

值得注意的是，比特幣選擇權交易於 12 月 27 日到期，許多交易者紛紛押注該資產的價格為 10 萬美元。

Traders have ploughed over $3 billion into mostly bullish bets at the November 8 expiration, with most of trades clustered in the $65,000 to $80,000 range, McCarthy said.

麥卡錫表示，截至 11 月 8 日到期，交易員已投入超過 30 億美元進行多頭押注，大部分交易集中在 65,000 美元至 80,000 美元之間。

The contract expires just three days after the US election and one day after the Federal Reserve’s next meeting where the central bank is expected to announce another interest rate cut.

該合約在美國大選後三天、以及聯準會下次會議預計將宣布再次降息的一天後到期。

That’s usually bullish for Bitcoin. Low interest rates mean investors have more money to spend, which incentivises them to trade riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.

這通常對比特幣有利。低利率意味著投資者有更多的錢可以花，這會激勵他們交易加密貨幣等風險較高的資產。

The chart depicts block trades on Deribit between Monday and Tuesday. The blue line represents the current market price of BTC, while the green and red blocks indicate the amount of contracts bought and sold, respectively. The more intense the color, the larger the buy or sell volume.

這張圖表描繪了周一至週二 Deribit 上的大宗交易。藍線代表BTC目前的市場價格，而綠色和紅色區塊分別表示買入和賣出的合約數量。顏色越深，買進或賣出量越大。

McCarthy also analysed so-called block trades. These trades are usually bulk orders from large traders.

麥卡錫也分析了所謂的大宗交易。這些交易通常是來自大型貿易商的大宗訂單。

Many of these trades are clustered around November expiration dates.

其中許多交易集中在 11 月到期日前後。

Between Wednesday and Thursday alone, McCarthy noted 550 contracts trading at contracts that valued Bitcoin around $76,000 on November 29.

僅在周三到週四之間，麥卡錫就指出，11 月 29 日就有 550 份合約的交易價格約為 76,000 美元。

Not just crypto

不只是加密貨幣

McCarthy also looked beyond crypto to gauge what markets expect to see after the election.

麥卡錫也著眼於加密貨幣以外的領域來衡量大選後市場的預期。

He notes that traders seem to anticipate that Donald Trump will win. The Republican candidate has pledged to raise tariffs, which is seen as inflationary.

他指出，交易員似乎預計唐納德·川普將獲勝。這位共和黨候選人已承諾提高關稅，這被視為會引發通貨膨脹。

Over the past month, the former president’s chances have improved — he has an almost 30 percentage point lead, according to a Polymarket prediction market. But Trump is about 2% behind Vice President Kamala Harris in national polls.

在過去的一個月裡，這位前總統的勝算有所提高——根據 Polymarket 預測市場，他領先了近 30 個百分點。但在全國民調中，川普落後副總統卡馬拉·哈里斯約 2%。

The 10-year Treasuries yield has ticked higher, which suggests that the market expects more inflation on the back of a Trump win, Kaiko said.

Kaiko表示，10年期公債殖利率小幅走高，顯示市場預期川普獲勝後通膨率將上升。

McCarthy cautions that it could simply mean that inflation could rise no matter who wins.

麥卡錫警告說，這可能僅僅意味著無論誰獲勝，通膨都可能上升。

He also looked at the Trump Media and Technology Group’s stock market performance this year.

他也考察了川普媒體和科技集團今年的股市表現。

Even though it’s up nearly 80% since January, it has experienced several double-digit drawdowns in that time. That “reinforces the theory that markets are pricing in a Republican victory,” McCarthy said.

儘管該股自 1 月以來上漲了近 80%，但在此期間經歷了幾位數的下跌。麥卡錫說，這「強化了市場正在消化共和黨勝利的理論」。

While the data suggest that traders expect to see more volatility, their overall bullishness “suggests that either candidate will be a net benefit for crypto in the long run,” McCarthy wrote.

麥卡錫寫道，雖然數據表明交易員預計會出現更大的波動，但他們的整體看漲情緒「表明從長遠來看，任何一位候選人都將為加密貨幣帶來淨收益」。

Eric Johansson is DL News’ News Editor. Got a tip? Email at eric@dlnews.com.

埃里克·約翰遜 (Eric Johansson) 是 DL News 的新聞編輯。有小費嗎？電子郵件：eric@dlnews.com。