数据显示，“无论谁赢得比赛”，比特币的价格似乎都会飙升

Kaiko 的分析师 Adam Morgan McCarthy 本周通过分析期权、期货、国债和股票市场的数据做出了这一预测。

Kaiko’s analyst Adam Morgan McCarthy made that prediction this week by crunching data on options, futures, Treasuries and stock markets.

Kaiko 的分析师 Adam Morgan McCarthy 本周通过分析期权、期货、国债和股票市场的数据做出了这一预测。

The data show that traders are betting on the price to surge “regardless of who wins the race,” McCarthy wrote.

麦卡锡写道，数据显示，交易员押注“无论谁赢得比赛”，价格都会上涨。

This estimate comes as the crypto industry braces for the vote on November 5, which has been the first election where both candidates have made sector-friendly overtures.

这一估计是在加密行业为 11 月 5 日的投票做好准备之际做出的，这是两位候选人首次提出对行业友好的提议。

Up to $80,000

高达 80,000 美元

McCarthy noted that the volume of Bitcoin options trades has ticked up ahead of the election.

麦卡锡指出，比特币期权交易量在大选前有所增加。

These trades give investors an opportunity to buy Bitcoin at specific prices at some point in the future and to profit from any difference between that price and the asset’s real price.

这些交易使投资者有机会在未来某个时刻以特定价格购买比特币，并从该价格与资产实际价格之间的任何差异中获利。

Notably, the expiration of the Bitcoin options trade on December 27 saw many traders pile in at bets that give the asset a price at $100,000.

值得注意的是，比特币期权交易于 12 月 27 日到期，许多交易者纷纷押注该资产的价格为 10 万美元。

Traders have ploughed over $3 billion into mostly bullish bets at the November 8 expiration, with most of trades clustered in the $65,000 to $80,000 range, McCarthy said.

麦卡锡表示，截至 11 月 8 日到期，交易员已投入超过 30 亿美元进行多头押注，大部分交易集中在 65,000 美元至 80,000 美元之间。

The contract expires just three days after the US election and one day after the Federal Reserve’s next meeting where the central bank is expected to announce another interest rate cut.

该合约在美国大选后三天、以及美联储下次会议预计将宣布再次降息的一天后到期。

That’s usually bullish for Bitcoin. Low interest rates mean investors have more money to spend, which incentivises them to trade riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.

这通常对比特币有利。低利率意味着投资者有更多的钱可以花，这会激励他们交易加密货币等风险较高的资产。

The chart depicts block trades on Deribit between Monday and Tuesday. The blue line represents the current market price of BTC, while the green and red blocks indicate the amount of contracts bought and sold, respectively. The more intense the color, the larger the buy or sell volume.

该图表描绘了周一至周二 Deribit 上的大宗交易。蓝线代表BTC当前的市场价格，而绿色和红色块分别表示买入和卖出的合约数量。颜色越深，买入或卖出量越大。

McCarthy also analysed so-called block trades. These trades are usually bulk orders from large traders.

麦卡锡还分析了所谓的大宗交易。这些交易通常是来自大型贸易商的大宗订单。

Many of these trades are clustered around November expiration dates.

其中许多交易集中在 11 月到期日前后。

Between Wednesday and Thursday alone, McCarthy noted 550 contracts trading at contracts that valued Bitcoin around $76,000 on November 29.

仅在周三到周四之间，麦卡锡就指出，11 月 29 日就有 550 份合约的交易价格约为 76,000 美元。

Not just crypto

不仅仅是加密货币

McCarthy also looked beyond crypto to gauge what markets expect to see after the election.

麦卡锡还着眼于加密货币以外的领域来衡量大选后市场的预期。

He notes that traders seem to anticipate that Donald Trump will win. The Republican candidate has pledged to raise tariffs, which is seen as inflationary.

他指出，交易员似乎预计唐纳德·特朗普将获胜。这位共和党候选人已承诺提高关税，这被视为会引发通货膨胀。

Over the past month, the former president’s chances have improved — he has an almost 30 percentage point lead, according to a Polymarket prediction market. But Trump is about 2% behind Vice President Kamala Harris in national polls.

在过去的一个月里，这位前总统的胜算有所提高——根据 Polymarket 预测市场，他领先了近 30 个百分点。但在全国民意调查中，特朗普落后副总统卡马拉·哈里斯约 2%。

The 10-year Treasuries yield has ticked higher, which suggests that the market expects more inflation on the back of a Trump win, Kaiko said.

Kaiko 表示，10 年期国债收益率已经走高，这表明市场预计特朗普获胜后通胀率将上升。

McCarthy cautions that it could simply mean that inflation could rise no matter who wins.

麦卡锡警告说，这可能仅仅意味着无论谁获胜，通胀都可能上升。

He also looked at the Trump Media and Technology Group’s stock market performance this year.

他还考察了特朗普媒体和科技集团今年的股市表现。

Even though it’s up nearly 80% since January, it has experienced several double-digit drawdowns in that time. That “reinforces the theory that markets are pricing in a Republican victory,” McCarthy said.

尽管该股自 1 月份以来上涨了近 80%，但在此期间经历了几次两位数的下跌。麦卡锡说，这“强化了市场正在消化共和党胜利的理论”。

While the data suggest that traders expect to see more volatility, their overall bullishness “suggests that either candidate will be a net benefit for crypto in the long run,” McCarthy wrote.

麦卡锡写道，虽然数据表明交易员预计会出现更大的波动，但他们的整体看涨情绪“表明从长远来看，任何一位候选人都将为加密货币带来净收益”。

Eric Johansson is DL News’ News Editor. Got a tip? Email at eric@dlnews.com.

埃里克·约翰逊 (Eric Johansson) 是 DL News 的新闻编辑。有小费吗？电子邮件：eric@dlnews.com。