比特幣價格預測：2025 年會上漲還是下跌？

這是加密貨幣獨裁者喜歡玩的室內預測遊戲。 2024年即將結束，業界大咖再次分享他們對新的一年的猜測。

Crypto executives aren’t crypto pessimists. After devoting their careers to the industry, how could they be?

加密貨幣高層並不是加密貨幣悲觀主義者。把自己的事業奉獻給這個行業之後，他們又會怎麼樣呢？

Still, compared to over-the-moon Bitcoin price predictions for 2024, Arthur Hayes, VanEck, and Bitwise were bearish.

儘管如此，與 2024 年比特幣價格的過度預測相比，Arthur Hayes、VanEck 和 Bitwise 仍持悲觀態度。

Hayes, co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX and the founder of family office Maelstrom Fund, predicted in October 2023 that Bitcoin would rise to around $70,000 by the end of 2024.

加密貨幣交易所 BitMEX 聯合創始人、家族辦公室 Maelstrom Fund 創始人 Hayes 在 2023 年 10 月預測，到 2024 年底，比特幣將升至 7 萬美元左右。

Bitwise, the institutional crypto investment firm, said in its end-of-year note in 2023 that it expected Bitcoin to trade above $80,000 and set a new all-time high.

該機構加密投資公司 Bitwise 在 2023 年年終報告中表示，預計比特幣交易價格將突破 8 萬美元，並創下歷史新高。

And analysts from VanEck, the financial firm that has waded into crypto, predicted in December 2023 that Bitcoin would hit an all-time high in the fourth quarter of 2024. They did not provide a price target.

涉足加密領域的金融公司 VanEck 的分析師在 2023 年 12 月預測，比特幣將在 2024 年第四季創下歷史新高。

With their more carefully worded predictions, Bitwise and VanEck proved to be correct. In the fourth quarter of 2024, Bitcoin did hit all-time highs and crossed $100,000 for the first time.

Bitwise 和 VanEck 的預測被證明是正確的。 2024 年第四季，比特幣確實創下歷史新高，首次突破 10 萬美元。

And while Hayes underestimated Bitcoin’s forthcoming bull run, that doesn’t mean he’s bearish.

雖然海耶斯低估了比特幣即將到來的牛市，但這並不意味著他看跌。

By the end of 2026, Bitcoin will hit somewhere between $750,000 and $1 million, he proclaimed.

他宣稱，到 2026 年底，比特幣價格將達到 75 萬至 100 萬美元。

Bulls

公牛隊

Tim Draper, Standard Chartered, or Matrixport tapped into the hopium slightly more than Hayes, VanEck and Bitwise.

渣打銀行 (Standard Chartered) 或 Matrixport 的 Tim Draper 的投入略多於 Hayes、VanEck 和 Bitwise。

In 2018, Draper, a prominent venture capital investor, predicted that Bitcoin would rocket to $250,000 in 2022.

2018 年，著名創投家 Draper 預測，比特幣將在 2022 年飆升至 25 萬美元。

Bitcoin didn’t hit the quarter-million mark that year, so, in January 2023, he said the cryptocurrency would rise to $250,000 by the end of the year.

比特幣當年並未突破 25 萬大關，因此，2023 年 1 月，他表示這種加密貨幣到年底將升至 25 萬美元。

Bitcoin failed to comply, but Draper wasn’t deterred.

比特幣未能遵守規定，但德雷珀並沒有被嚇倒。

In April 2024, he again re-upped his prediction and proclaimed that, on the heels of momentum from the launch of spot exchange-traded funds, Bitcoin would finally reach $250,000 by the end of 2024.

2024年4月，他再次重申了自己的預測，並宣稱，在現貨交易所交易基金推出的勢頭下，比特幣最終將在2024年底達到25萬美元。

In November, Draper backtracked and said Bitcoin would hit $120,000 by December.

11 月，Draper 反悔稱，到 12 月，比特幣將達到 12 萬美元。

Similarly, an analyst at Matrixport, a crypto financial services platform, predicted in July 2023 that Bitcoin would rise to $125,000 by 2024.

同樣，加密金融服務平台 Matrixport 的分析師在 2023 年 7 月預測，到 2024 年，比特幣將升至 125,000 美元。

And analysts at Standard Chartered, one of the UK’s biggest banks, first forecast that Bitcoin’s price would rise to $120,000 in 2024, then $150,000, before finally settling on $125,000.

英國最大銀行之一渣打銀行的分析師首先預測，比特幣的價格將在 2024 年升至 12 萬美元，然後是 15 萬美元，最後確定為 12.5 萬美元。

While not far off, Draper, Matrixport, and Standard Chartered overshot Bitcoin’s ending price in 2024 by about $20,000.

Draper、Matrixport 和渣打銀行在 2024 年的最終價格比比特幣的最終價格高出約 20,000 美元，雖然差距並不遙遠。

Dreamers

夢想家

Can a crypto exec overdose on “hopium?”

加密貨幣高管是否可以過量服用「hopium」？

Cathie Wood, Michael Saylor, and Mike Novogratz have tried.

凱西·伍德 (Cathie Wood)、邁克爾·塞勒 (Michael Saylor) 和邁克·諾沃格拉茨 (Mike Novogratz) 都曾嘗試過。

In 2021, Novogratz, the CEO of the crypto investment firm Galaxy Digital, proclaimed that, in 2024, Bitcoin would hit $500,000.

2021 年，加密貨幣投資公司 Galaxy Digital 執行長 Novogratz 宣稱，到 2024 年，比特幣將達到 50 萬美元。

But in March, he said, in one of the more accurate predictions of the year, that Bitcoin would hit $100,000.

但在 3 月份，他在今年最準確的預測之一中表示，比特幣將達到 10 萬美元。

Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest, the investment firm that has gobbled up crypto stocks and cryptocurrency, has been more bullish.

Cathie Wood 的 ARK Invest 是一家投資公司，該公司一直在買入加密股票和加密貨幣，該公司的態度更為樂觀。

The firm has said Bitcoin would hit $500,000 by 2026 and $1 million by 2030.

該公司表示，到 2026 年，比特幣價格將達到 50 萬美元，到 2030 年將達到 100 萬美元。

But Wood and Novogratz pale in comparison to the laser-eyed Michael Saylor.

但與目光敏銳的麥可·塞勒相比，伍德和諾沃格拉茨顯得蒼白無力。

The founder and chairman of MicroStrategy has proclaimed that Bitcoin will hit $13 million a piece by 2045.

MicroStrategy 的創辦人兼董事長宣稱，到 2045 年，比特幣的價格將達到每枚 1,300 萬美元。

Maybe Saylor will be right. Or maybe, like most other crypto executives, he’ll be way off the mark.

也許塞勒是對的。或者，像大多數其他加密貨幣高管一樣，他可能會偏離目標。

Ben Weiss is DL News’ Dubai Correspondent. Got a tip? Email him at bweiss@dlnews.com.

Ben Weiss 是 DL News 的杜拜記者。有小費嗎？給他發電子郵件：bweiss@dlnews.com。